NFL Wild Card Weekend player statistical leaders, props, picks: Bills' Allen, Packers' Jacobs could thrive

With NFL Super Wild Card Weekend on tap, this could be the most wide-open NFL postseason in years considering it is missing Patrick Mahomes and the dynastic Kansas City Chiefs. There are a record five teams in the postseason coming off at least an 11-loss season: New England, Jacksonville, Chicago, Carolina and San Francisco.

Even without the Chiefs, seven of this year's 14 playoff teams have won at least one Super Bowl since 2000, capturing 14 of the past 25. Six teams qualified for the postseason after missing the playoffs in 2024. That makes it 36 consecutive seasons where at least four teams every season have qualified after failing to make the postseason the year before. A total of 12 of the 14 expected starting quarterbacks in these playoffs are under the age of 30, the most in a single postseason ever.

There was a record for most division winners with five or fewer wins in the previous season with four; the most division winners going worst-to-first with three; and most playoff teams with a new head coach inheriting at least a 12-loss team with three. There was just one repeat division winner in Philadelphia, tied for the fewest in a season since division realignment in 2002.

The NFC South champion Panthers are only the seventh team to make the playoffs with a losing record all-time and the first since 1970 with zero wins as a favorite. Carolina's minus-69 point differential is the third-worst by a division champion since 1970. But be aware the two teams with worse point differentials -- the 2010 Seahawks and 2011 Broncos -- both won their playoff openers, and on iconic plays to boot (Marshawn Lynch, Tim Tebow).

What's also interesting on Wild Card Weekend is that all six games are outdoors, for the first time in this round since 2007, so make sure to check the weather as it may factor in many of them. Be aware that since the NFL moved to a 14-team playoff in 2020, home teams are 21-9 in the Wild Card round, but No. 3 seeds are only 5-5.

With odds courtesy of DraftKings, here are my picks for the individual statistical leaders for the weekend. I purposefully avoided favorites so as to not appear lazy. For giggles, my Super Bowl pick is Rams vs. Broncos – that exact matchup is priced +1000. 

Most passing yards: Bills' Josh Allen +650 

The Rams' Matthew Stafford is the +400 favorite and should be considering he led the NFL in passing yards. But Carolina did a good job on him in the 31-28 home upset in Week 13 as Stafford was held to 243 yards and turned the ball over three times. It also may rain in Charlotte Saturday afternoon with a 70% of precipitation. Plus, the Rams could pull way ahead and lean on the run game.

So we will go with Buffalo's Josh Allen in Jacksonville even though the Bills were the NFL's No. 1 rushing team during the regular season. But the Jaguars were the No. 1 rush defense – they rank in the bottom third of the NFL against the pass -- and didn't allow a single running back to top 74 yards. Jacksonville became only the second team since 2000 to not allow a 75-yard rusher in a game. Incidentally, this marks only the sixth time since 1970 that the No. 1 rush offense and defense face off. The No. 1 defense team won three of those first five matchups. 

Thus, I think the Jaguars load up to stop rushing champion James Cook and make Allen beat them through the air despite a less-than-ideal receiving group; he's 5-0 career in the Wild Card round but 0-4 career in road playoff games. Allen is the all-time postseason leader in total yards per game at 311.0, although obviously some of that is rushing. The SportsLine Projection Model has Allen at 213 yards. That won't cut it. There should be no weather concerns in northeast Florida on Sunday early afternoon. 

Most receiving yards: Panthers' Tetairoa McMillan +1700

The Rams' Puka Nacua is the +450 favorite and we certainly get it, like with Stafford above, although the Panthers held him to 72 yards on six catches in the first meeting. Nacua is set at Over/Under 93.5 yards on Saturday. Do note that Davante Adams will return from injury, so that may take a few targets from Nacua. Carolina was good against the pass, allowing 203.9 YPG. 

I'll take Carolina's Tetairoa McMillan at this terrific price. The surefire NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, currently priced -2000 to win it, was the only rookie in 2025 to finish over 1,000 rushing or receiving yards. He was very quiet in the first Rams meeting with one catch on two targets for 43 yards, but there's a great chance the Cats get down fairly quickly and need to start throwing all day.

After all, Los Angeles at -10.5 is the largest road favorite in any NFL playoff game since 1970. DraftKings lists McMillan at O/U 55.5 yards, and the SportsLine model has him at 56. But Bryce Young torched the Rams in the first meeting with his only career game completing at least 75% of his passes and with at least three TD passes. In Weeks 1-12, the Rams allowed an average of 16.3 PPG, which led the NFL. From Weeks 13-18, the number rose to 27.8 PPG (26th). If the Panthers approach that point total, then McMillan most likely had a big day even if he didn't the first time. He's +514 for a third career 100-yard game. 

Most rushing yards: Packers' Josh Jacobs +700

Saturday night from Soldier Field marks the 213th meeting in the NFL's oldest rivalry between the Packers and Bears, but it's only the third time these teams will have met in the postseason. It sure looks like potential rushing weather with possible snow showers. Plus, Green Bay QB Jordan Love hasn't played since early in Week 16 due to injury/rest, so he might be a tad rusty.

The Packers' Josh Jacobs has been quite limited in recent games due to a bit of a knee issue, but he barely played Week 17 and, like most starters, got Week 18 so ideally is pretty healthy. Jacobs rushed for 86 and 36 yards in the two games vs. Chicago, which is not very good against the run in allowing 134.5 rush yards per game. Jacobs had 81 yards in last year's Wild Card loss in Philadelphia, and 81 might be all it takes to win the category this weekend.

Jacobs is set at O/U 75.5 rush yards via DraftKings, which is behind only Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley (80.5 and priced +425 on this prop) and Buffalo's James Cook (79.5 and priced +450) among tailbacks this weekend. I definitely thought about Barkley vs. the 49ers, so perhaps that's worth a hedge, but I think Cook is bottled up in Jacksonville as mentioned above.