The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
An exception to that rule would be what the Green Bay Packers (11-4) should be angling to do when they head north for a Week 17 rematch against the Minnesota Vikings (13-2). The visiting Packers are hoping to go into Minneapolis and leave with a victory, and doing so would avenge their 31-29 home loss against the Vikings from back in Week 4. They can do just that by not making many adjustments.
Let's take a closer look at what went wrong for the Packers in their Week 4 matchup, and why just one minor tweak needs to be made across all three phases of Green Bay's operation in order to achieve different results on Sunday.
Offensive problem: Packers QB Jordan Love's 3 INTs
Adjustment required: Nothing
Yes, Packers quarterback Jordan Love tied his single-game career with three interceptions in the Week 4 loss against Minnesota while also putting up single game, career high's in completions (32), pass attempts (54), passing yards (389) and passing touchdowns (four). Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs, as a result, registered a season-low nine carries for 51 rushing yards. However, here's why Love and Matt LaFleur don't have to change much of their game plan to get the offense in a much better rhythm early on in the game.
Love made his return from a Week 1 MCL sprain. As a result, he didn't look quite right against a Vikings defense that is now the No. 2 scoring defense in football (18.4 points per game allowed). Plenty of Love's throws that day were too high, too low, late or off target. Specifically on his interceptions. Love's first interception on a throw over the middle to wide receiver Christian Watson was a tight-window throw, a type of throw he's completed for touchdowns like a throw against the Houston Texans to tight end Tucker Kraft, but he was just late getting the ball out. With such a small margin for error, the ball needed to be out a half second sooner, or he should've gone a different direction.
His second pick of the day with 6:05 left in the second quarter occurred on a short curl route throw to tight Luke Musgrave. Musgrave, who is 6 feet, 6 inches tall, was able to get himself to an open space about 5 to 6 yards off the line of scrimmage and plant himself as an available target, and Love rocketed the football too hard and too high for his target. That resulted in the football being surprisingly tipped into Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs' hands, which caught him by surprise. The football then popped up into the air after being deflected off Doubs' hands, which ended with Vikings' Shaq Griffin snagging an easy interception. Postgame, Love said the throw was always meant for Doubs.
The third and final interception of the day highlighted Love's lack of mobility because of the knee injury. The Vikings all-out blitzed while keeping four defenders back in coverage, which led to the Packers quarterback throwing a YOLO, go ball down the right sideline to wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks one play after the duo connected for a 36-yard gain. Love throwing off his back foot caused the ball to sail, and Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy picked the pass off to essentially seal the game.
Why are these interceptions not a harbinger of things to come in the rematch on Sunday? Well, the first and the third can be attributed to Love being either mentally (first interception) or physically (third interception) rusty and operating at way less than 100%. The second one comes off as a combination of Love's rust, by not throwing the pass in an area that makes it clear to both Doubs and Musgrave who the intended target was, and pure football randomness.
That leads to the Jacobs component of Week 4 or the lack thereof. Between Love's inefficiency in his return from what had appeared to be a serious knee injury and some special teams woes, we'll get to those in a moment, Green Bay trailed 21-0 with 11:50 to go in the second quarter and 28-0 with 5:28 to go in the second quarter. Jacobs should naturally be a part of the Packers' offensive attack as its centerpiece like he has been for the best several weeks: his six-game rushing touchdown streak is tied for the longest in team history since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.
As for Love, well the rust is completely gone, and he's back to playing strong ball in the second half of 2024 (nine touchdown passes to one interception since Week 11) just like he did in 2023 (18 touchdowns to one interception from Weeks 11-18 last season). It may stun some to learn Love leads the entire NFL in touchdown to interception ratio (27-2), passer rating (114.8) and expected points added (EPA)/play (0.28) in Weeks 11-18 the last two seasons, among 26 quarterbacks with at least 220 pass attempts in that span entering Week 17 of the current season, while ranking second in yards per pass attempt (8.2) and fourth in completion percentage (69%) in that span.
| Jordan Love Last 2 Seasons | Weeks 1-10 | Weeks 11-18 |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 7-9 | 11-3* |
Comp Pct | 60% | 69%* |
Pass Yards/Attempt | 7.1 | 8.2* |
Pass YPG | 239.3 | 247.5 |
TD-INT | 29-20 | 27-2* |
Passer Rating | 83.9 | 113.1* |
EPA/Play | -0.02 | 0.28* |
* Top five in NFL among 26 QBs with at least 220 pass attempts in Weeks 11-18 since 2023
Now that Love's health has returned, Green Bay's offense is humming -- five consecutive games with at least 30 points scored -- and should look much better in Round 2 at Minnesota.
Special Teams problem: Making field goals
Adjustment required: Nothing
Then-Packers kicker Brayden Narveson missed both of his field goal attempts, each of which were under 50 yards in distance (49 yards and 37 yards), in a two-point Green Bay loss. That's inexcusable, and it's why the Packers signed former Super Bowl champion kicker Brandon McManus back in Week 7. He's rewarded Green Bay's faith by making 16 of his 17 field goals, including both of his kicks from at least 50 yards out, and all 27 of his extra points. The 11-year vet has brought the type of stability at the kicker position that Green Bay craved since Mason Crosby's departure.
Defensive problem: Doubling Justin Jefferson throughout, Jordan Addison carving up Packers secondary
Adjustment required: Play more press man coverage
With Packers top cornerback Jaire Alexander missing the Week 4 contest, Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley opted to double cover 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year wide receiver Justin Jefferson early and often. It worked in the sense that Jefferson didn't do much against it: he caught his only target on 10 routes against cloud coverage (Cover 2 with some Cover 6 elements) for 5 yards, per NFL Pro.
The problem with that strategy was it put Vikings 2023 first-round pick wide receiver Jordan Addison one-on-one with one of the Packers' depth corners in zone-coverage situations, which led to big plays for the Vikings to begin the game. Addison broke wide open for the game's first touchdown on a 29-yard stop-and-go route that cooked Green Bay cornerback Corey Ballentine. He then beat Packers cornerback Eric Stokes twice for his final two catches of the day, a 25-yarder on a dig route over the middle and an 18-yard completion on what appeared to be an option route.
Alexander has missed six of the last seven games with a knee injury, but he did practice fully all week in Week 16 before being listed as questionable and then inactive on Monday night against the Saints. Should he return on Sunday, all Hafley needs to do his give Alexander most of the Jefferson assignment and play press man coverage, which would allow the rest of his defense to play more conventionally across the rest of the field.
If he is inactive again on Sunday, they still need to utilize more press man. Jefferson is facing press man coverage on a career-high 36% of his routes in 2024, per NFL Pro, and he is averaging a career-worst 2.0 yards per route against it. Yes, the Packers play cloud coverage on an NFL-high 38.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, the fifth-highest by any defense in a season since 2018, per NFL Pro. Hafley needs to dial that back and play more press man on Sunday, even though it's counterintuitive because it will allow the Packers to cover Addison more respectfully than they did in Week 4 while still going to war with Jefferson and making him work hard play after play.
Verdict
All the Packers have to do on offense and special teams to ensure a different result in Minnesota is simply play their game, and that should be enough. Defensively, a more balanced coverage plan could very well get the job done. If they simply keep playing the way they've been playing, it would be completely reasonable for Green Bay to come through and capture a signature victory just before the postseason begins. That could position them to hop the Vikings for the NFC's fifth seed and top wild-card spot in Week 18 with Minnesota facing the current NFC top seed in the Detroit Lions. Not a bad way to enter the playoffs in Year 2 of the Jordan Love era.
