Underrated AFC players who could become stars in 2026, plus breaking down Patrick Mahomes' $500 million deal

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

If I sound tired, it's because I stayed up to watch the Spurs choke away a 29-point lead to the Knicks in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Of course, this is an NFL newsletter, so you might be wondering what this has to do with the NFL, and the answer is EVERYTHING. The Spurs went full Falcons. It was the ugliest loss by any team in any championship game since Super Bowl LI when Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead to New England. 

Also, Taylor Swift was in attendance to watch the Knicks' win, and she's getting married to an NFL player in less than a month, so that's another NFL connection. Swift and Travis Kelce are apparently getting married at Madison Square Garden, and if they're smart, they'll take their vows right where OG Anunoby tipped in the game-winning shot. (By the way, we've been keeping tabs on every wedding rumor, and if you want the latest, we've got it here.) 

Anyway, in non-NBA news, Patrick Mahomes just signed the largest contract in NFL history. We'll also take a look at one under-the-radar player from each AFC team who could turn into a star in 2026. 

As always, here's your reminder to tell your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It makes the perfect Father's Day gift, and that's mostly because it's free. Alright, let's get to the rundown.

1. NFL's first $500 million deal: What to know about Patrick Mahomes' restructured contract

For the first time in NFL history, a player has landed a $500 million contract, and to no one's surprise, that player is Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback restructured his contract on Wednesday, and the most notable aspect of his revised deal is that he added two more years, which means he's now under contract with the Chiefs through the 2033 season. 

The Chiefs drafted Mahomes in 2017, and by the time his newest contract expires, he'll have been with the team for 17 seasons, so it seems like Kansas City is doing its best to make sure he never leaves. 

Here are some of the details on the deal:

• Mahomes is now the highest-paid player in NFL history. The quarterback's new contract includes two new seasons and $64 million per year in new money, which is the most in NFL history. However, the easiest way to look at a contract is the average annual value, and Mahomes will also be at the top there. He essentially signed an eight-year, $504.75 million deal, which means he'll make an average of $63.09 million per year. Going into the offseason, Dak Prescott was the highest-paid player in the NFL at $60 million per year, but Mahomes has now surpassed that number. 
• This is Mahomes' second big contract. Overall, this is the third deal Mahomes has signed with the Chiefs. In 2017, he signed a four-year, $16.4 million rookie deal. The Chiefs picked up his fifth-year option in a move that would have cost them $24.8 million in 2021, but before they had to pay that out, they handed him his first record-breaking contract. In July 2020, Mahomes signed a 10-year, $450 million contract. That deal could have hit $503 million if Mahomes hit every incentive, but we'll never know if that would have happened, because the Chiefs tore up the deal after just four seasons and gave him the revised eight-year contract he signed Wednesday. 
• Mahomes might not be the NFL's first $500 million player. Although Mahomes signed the NFL's first $500 million contract, he might not end up being the first player to hit $500 million in career earnings. Mahomes has made $231.9 million in his career, which puts him at 16th on the all-time career earnings list (via Over the Cap). Matthew Stafford is at the top of that list with $408 million in career earnings, and he has another $95 million in guaranteed money coming as long as he plays through the 2027 season, which would push him up to $503 million. 

Mahomes might not be the first player to hit the $500 million mark, but he's almost certainly going to be the highest earner in NFL history at some point down the road. The biggest news here is that the Chiefs are now set at quarterback for the next eight years, and that should send chills down the spine of every defensive coordinator in the NFL. 

2. One under-the-radar breakout candidate from each AFC team

The best way to win in fantasy football is to find a few under-the-radar players who could end up having a big season. Here at CBS Sports, there's no one better than Tyler Sullivan at finding under-the-radar players, which is why we asked him to come up with one under-the-radar player from each AFC team who could turn into a star this year. 

Sullivan came up with a list of 16 players; here are four who made the cut: 

• Patriots WR Kyle Williams -- While A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs will garner most of the attention, don't sleep on Kyle Williams. The 2025 third-round pick had a relatively quiet rookie season, catching just 10 balls for 209 yards and three touchdowns. He was largely used as a deep threat, but there's certainly more room for him to grow, even with the additions New England has made. It wouldn't be surprising to see Williams push veteran Mack Hollins for snaps and targets opposite Brown. 
• Bengals EDGE Shemar Stewart -- The 2025 first-round pick is sort of an afterthought when looking at this Cincinnati depth chart, especially with new pieces coming in and a forgetful rookie season (one sack over eight games played). Stewart drew praise throughout the early portions of offseason workouts from both his coaches and players, including newcomer Boye Mafe. If he can carry that over into 2026, it changes the entire complexion of the Bengals' pass rush and their overall ceiling.
• Colts WR Josh Downs -- The Colts freed up 111 targets within their offense after trading Michael Pittman Jr. to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Downs had 88 targets last season (third most on the team), so it's conceivable that he's earmarked for 100 targets in 2026, setting the stage for a true breakout. Downs has been solid throughout the first three years of his career, including a 2024 season in which he logged 803 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
• Broncos RB Jonah Coleman -- While Day 3 picks typically don't garner a ton of attention, Coleman should. The Broncos brought back J.K. Dobbins on a two-year extension, but the veteran has monumental durability concerns, including a 2025 Lisfranc injury. Meanwhile, 2025 second-round pick RJ Harvey wasn't able to carry the full workload effectively after he went down. If Dobbins again struggles to stay on the field, there's a path for Coleman to play significant snaps.

If you want to see Sullivan's full list of under-the-radar players in the AFC, we've got that here.

3. Ranking quarterbacks who most need a Super Bowl to help their legacy

If you're an NFL quarterback, the fastest way to create a legacy is to win a Super Bowl. Just look at Sam Darnold. Going into 2025, he was mostly viewed as a former draft bust who happened to have one lucky season in Minnesota. However, it's safe to say that Darnold is no longer viewed as a bust after leading the Seahawks to a Super Bowl win. 

For other players, a Super Bowl win is the one thing they need to cement their legacy as one of the best quarterbacks of all-time. So which active QB needs one the most? Glad you asked. Bryan DeArdo ranked the top 15 quarterbacks who need a Super Bowl win, and we're going to take a look at the top five names on his list. 

1. Lamar Jackson. No quarterback needs a Super Bowl more for his legacy. A narrative exists that running quarterbacks cannot win Super Bowls. Jackson, because of his success running with the football, is largely labeled as a running quarterback. But that title diminishes how good Jackson is as a passer. He is, after all, tied with Aaron Rodgers for the highest career passer rating in league history.

2. Josh Allen. For multiple reasons, a Super Bowl win would do wonders for Allen's career. From a personal standpoint, it would solidify Allen's place among the best quarterbacks of his era. Allen would also be the quarterback of the first Super Bowl-winning Bills team, which is a legacy-defining accomplishment in itself.  

3. Joe Burrow. An Ohio native, Burrow would forever be a legend in the Buckeye State if he helps the Bengals become the state's first Super Bowl champion. A Super Bowl win would also greatly help Burrow's Hall of Fame case. While he is undeniably a Hall of Fame talent, injuries held Burrow back. A Super Bowl would permanently put those disappointing and injury-plagued seasons in the rearview mirror while putting Burrow back on track for Canton. 

4. Dak Prescott. If Prescott wants to truly be remembered as an all-time great, he can do so by leading the Cowboys to the franchise's first Super Bowl title since their 1990s dynasty. If he can win a Super Bowl ring, Prescott would not only join Hall of Famers Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman as the only starting quarterbacks to lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl title, but he would also put himself in position to possibly join them in Canton.

5. Justin Herbert. Herbert is following in the footsteps of former Chargers quarterbacks Dan Fouts and Philip Rivers. Both quarterbacks enjoyed prolific careers but were at times overlooked during their primes because of their inability to get to and ultimately win a Super Bowl. Herbert -- who has not won a playoff game during his first six NFL seasons -- is undoubtedly looking to avoid the same fate. 

If you want to know the 10 other quarterbacks who could use a win to help their legacy, DeArdo has the full list here.

4. Why Fernando Mendoza still hasn't signed his rookie deal

When it comes to rookie contracts in the NFL, they usually get done pretty quickly because there's not much to negotiate. Thanks to the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, every rookie has a slotted contract based on where they were taken in the draft, and that's a big reason why 30 of the 32 first-round picks have already signed their rookie deals. 

One very notable player who hasn't signed his deal yet is Fernando Mendoza, who was taken by the Raiders with the first overall pick. Mendoza and the Raiders both know that he'll be getting a four-year, $57.27 million deal, so you'd think the two sides would already have a deal done, but nope. 

What's holding things up? Former NFL agent Joel Corry has the answer, and it all comes down to how Mendoza's signing bonus is going to be paid out. Mendoza's signing bonus is $38,111,344, and apparently, the two sides can't agree on how or when he should get that. 

• The Raiders don't want to pay the entire thing in one lump sum. The Raiders haven't been paying first-round pick signing bonuses in a lump sum. The payment schedule for the previous three first-round picks -- Ashton Jeanty (2025, sixth overall), Brock Bowers (2024, 13th overall) and Tyree Wilson (2023, seventh overall) -- was 77.5% within 15 days of signing, 12.5% in mid-September and the final 10% in mid-October.
• The first pick in the draft and first-round quarterbacks usually get their signing bonus in one lump sum. Large signing bonuses in NFL contracts typically aren't paid in a single lump sum. The exception is that lump-sum signing bonus payments have become customary for the first overall pick. All six quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2024 draft also received their signing bonuses in a single payment.
• Ty Simpson could throw a wrench into things. The only other unsigned first-round rookie is Simpson, who was taken by the Rams with the 13th overall pick. From Corry: "The Raiders will have a difficult time justifying their typical payment schedule to Mendoza if the quarterback selected 12 spots later receives his signing bonus in a lump sum and without offsets."
• Corry's compromise. The 2025 first overall pick, Cam Ward, received his $32,159,712 signing bonus from the Titans within a month of signing. At a minimum, the Raiders should be willing to match Ward's signing bonus amount in the first installment, which would equal 84.38% of Mendoza's signing bonus.

If you want the full details on the Mendoza situation, Corry has those here. 

5. NFC North win totals: Packers might be overrated

Over the past two weeks, we've been taking a look at win totals from around the NFL, and so far, we've made it through five of the eight divisions. For today, we're breaking down the NFC North, and Jordan Dajani is once again back to give us his best bets for the over/unders. 

Let's check out his thoughts on the Packers and Vikings: 

Green Bay Packers

• Odds: Over 10.5 (+115) / Under 10.5 (-140)

Dajani's take: I'm not feeling very optimistic about the Packers entering 2026 because I don't think they got better. The Packers lost pass rusher Rashan Gary, wide receiver Romeo Doubs, cornerback Nate Hobbs, linebacker Quay Walker, offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins, pass rusher Kingsley Enagbare and wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks. Plus, Micah Parsons is expected to open the year on the PUP list, while star running back Josh Jacobs was recently arrested on five charges related to domestic violence. I'm not taking the Packers to go over 10.5 wins this season.

Dajani's lean: Under 10.5 (-140)

Chicago Bears

• Odds: Over 9.5 (+100) / Under 9.5 (-120)

Dajani's take: The Bears have the toughest strength of schedule this season based on their opponents' combined record from last year (.550). Each of the last nine teams to enter a season with the toughest strength of schedule failed to win a playoff game. However, I have a lot of faith in Williams and Ben Johnson. I believe Williams will improve on his 58.1% completion rate, and I'm anticipating second-year jumps from Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. Give me the over at plus money. I have the Bears winning exactly 10 games.

Dajani's lean: Over 9.5 (+100)

If you want to see how Dajani feels about the Vikings and Lions, you can get his take on those two teams here. 

6. Extra points: Deshaun Watson talks to the media for the first time in two years

It's been a busy few days in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Deshaun Watson holds first press conference since 2024. The Browns quarterback met with the media this week for the first time since October 2024. Watson has been injured since then, so he wasn't required to talk, but now that he's in a competition, he decided to speak at Cleveland's mandatory minicamp. After missing a year and a half of football, one thing is clear: he wants to win the starting job over Shedeur Sanders. "I think each and every person that walks into the locker room should have that mindset that you want to start in this league," Watson said, via NFL.com. "That's why I show up each and every day, to be able to go out there and perform on Sundays, whatever day that is. It's definitely the main focus of why I work hard to be able to come back." If Watson is going to win the job, he probably won't find out for another two months. Earlier this week, Browns coach Todd Monken said he probably wouldn't make any decisions on the competition until training camp. 
• Eagles sign A.J. Epenesa. The Eagles have been in need of pass-rushing help and added some Wednesday by signing Epenesa. The 27-year-old was going to sign with the Browns in March, but Cleveland pulled out of the deal after giving him a physical. The pass rusher has 24 sacks across six seasons, which all came in Buffalo. 
• Dolphins center gets three-year extension. For the second time this offseason, the Dolphins have handed out a hefty extension. Center Aaron Brewer has landed a three-year, $52.5 million deal, according to ESPN. At $17.5 million per year, it makes Brewer the third-highest-paid center in the NFL. It's an especially big contract for Brewer, who entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2020. He's now going into his third season with the Dolphins after spending his first four years with the Titans. The deal comes one month after Miami gave De'Von Achane a four-year, $68 million extension.
• Seahawks getting their Super Bowl rings tonight. We mentioned this earlier this week, but we'll go ahead and mention it again since it's happening tonight: The Seahawks will be getting their Super Bowl rings. The Seahawks released a teaser video for the ring release -- starring CHRIS PRATT -- and you can check that out here.