Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I have no idea how it happened, but the 2024 NFL season is just 21 days away. That's right, it will be kicking off exactly three weeks from today. To celebrate that fact, we'll be making a final record prediction for every team in today's newsletter. Actually, that's not completely true. We'll only be doing the NFC teams today and then we'll give our AFC predictions tomorrow.
Also, as you may or may not know, there was total chaos in the NFL yesterday with Matthew Judon getting traded and J.J. McCarthy undergoing season-ending surgery. We'll be covering both of those things today, plus more, so let's get to the rundown.
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1. Matthew Judon trade grades: Falcons land four-time Pro Bowler in trade with Patriots
The drama between Matthew Judon and the Patriots is finally over. The four-time Pro Bowler is on his way to Atlanta after the Falcons pulled off a surprising trade for him on Wednesday.
Here's a look at the trade details:
- Falcons receive: Matthew Judon
- Patriots receive: 2025 third-round pick
Judon is headed into the final year of a contract that will pay him just $6.5 million in 2024 and he wanted the Patriots to give him a new deal that included a hefty raise. However, with Judon coming off a serious injury that caused him to miss 13 games last season, the two sides couldn't agree on a contract number that worked. Although he reported to training camp in New England this year, he didn't seem very happy about it. Instead of dealing with the drama, the Patriots decided to ship him off to Atlanta.
One interesting note here is that Judon does NOT have a new deal hammered out with the Falcons just yet, CBS Sports lead NFL insider Jonathan Jones has reported. If Judon doesn't get one right away, it will be interesting to see if he reports.
TRADE GRADES
Here's a look at our grades from the trade (via Garrett Podell):
- Falcons grade: B-. "Despite addressing a critical need, this somewhat low grade comes down to a few factors. One, Judon is 32 years old and coming off a season in which he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4. Two, they don't have him signed to a new deal already, which worked out horribly in the aforementioned case of Reddick and the Jets. Reddick is demanding a trade from New York despite being acquired this offseason because he doesn't have a new contract in place. Three, whenever they do sign him to a new deal, they will likely be paying him in two or three years from now for past production. "
- Patriots grade: B+. "The Patriots are rebuilding, so this trade makes all the sense in the world. Why does a team that went 4-13 with its worst scoring offense (13.9 points per game) since 1992 need to be paying an upper-tier but old pass rusher a bunch of money in the immediate future? This is an organization that needs as much draft capital as possible to give its new regime what it needs to put together a competitive club over the next few years."
You can check out Podell's full explanation for each grade by clicking here.
2. Vikings' 2024 nightmare continues: J.J. McCarthy out for the season
It seems like the Vikings have gotten nothing but bad news over the past six weeks and that nightmare stretch continued on Wednesday with J.J. McCarthy. The rookie quarterback is out for the season after undergoing surgery on his right knee to repair a torn meniscus.
Here's what the injury means:
- Sam Darnold will almost certainly be starting the entire season. If McCarthy was healthy, it seems like the Vikings were planning to give him the starting job at some point this year, but with the rookie out, that means Minnesota is going to have to ride with Darnold. The former first-round pick has only started a total of seven games over the past two years. He's also never made it through an entire season as a starting QB. The most games he's ever started in one year is 13, which he did twice with the Jets (2018 and 2019).
- McCarthy makes unfortunate history. McCarthy's injury will mark the first time in NFL history that a first-round quarterback has missed his entire rookie season due to injury. McCarthy will also become just the fourth first-round QB to not take a single snap during his rookie year, joining Jordan Love (Packers in 2020), Jason Campbell (Washington in 2005) and Carson Palmer (Bengalsin 2003).
- Kevin O'Connell's reaction. The Vikings coach didn't try to sugarcoat anything when he was asked about the injury on Wednesday. "As crushed as I am for our team and the excitement we had in our building, and our fanbase felt the same way ... I am the most crushed for J.J. But as our fans either have already come to find out or will in the future, this guy is so motivated and so dialed in."
McCarthy's injury continues a nightmare stretch for the Vikings. The team was hit with tragedy on July 6 when rookie Khyree Jackson tragically died in a car accident.
They've also had to deal with a serious injury to projected starting corner Mekhi Blackmon, who tore his ACL during the first practice of training camp on July 24. Not to mention, Jordan Addison got busted for a DUI just before the start of training camp. Addison was actually carted off the field on Wednesday with an ankle injury, but it's not believed to be serious, according to ESPN.
3. Predicting the final record of every NFC team
It has been a busy week for Will Brinson, who spent the past 48 hours going through the entire 2024 NFL schedule so that he could come up with a final record prediction for EVERY team. We'll be going over his NFC predictions today and then following that up with his AFC predictions tomorrow.
Here's how Brinson has the NFC will shaking out this year:
*make playoffs
NFC East
1. *Cowboys: 11-6
2. *Eagles: 9-8
3. Commanders: 7-10
4. Giants: 6-11
NFC North
1. *Lions: 11-6
2. *Packers: 10-7
3. Bears: 8-9
4. Vikings: 7-10
NFC South
1. *Falcons: 10-7
2. Buccaneers: 9-8
3. Saints: 6-11
4. Panthers: 6-11
NFC West
1. *Rams: 12-5
2. *49ers: 11-6
3. Seahawks: 9-8
4. Cardinals: 7-10
NFC playoffs: 1. Rams 2. Lions 3. Cowboys 4. Falcons 5. 49ers 6. Packers 7. Eagles.
I'd say the biggest surprise here is that Brinson has the Rams finishing with the top record in the NFC. He's basically the president of the Matthew Stafford fan club, so I guess now that I'm thinking about it, the prediction isn't a total surprise.
4. Ranking the five best preseason games to watch in Week 2
After ranking the best games to watch during the first week of the preseason, Bryan DeArdo is back to rank his top-five must-see games of Week 2.
Here are the five best preseason games this week, according DeArdo:
1. Bills at Steelers (Saturday, Aug. 17, 7 p.m. ET on NFLN). "Saturday is an important game in Russell Wilson's career, which is saying something given that he has started in two Super Bowls. Wilson still has the pole position over Justin Fields, and he is still projected to be Pittsburgh's Week 1 starter. But it's no longer a sure thing."
2. Packers at Broncos (Sunday, Aug. 18, 8 p.m. ET on NFLN). "The majority of Green Bay's starters are getting the night off, but that doesn't diminish my interest in seeing the NFL's only three-man quarterback battle between Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson."
3. Eagles at Patriots (Thursday, Aug. 15, 8 p.m. ET on NFLN). "Drake Maye attempted a mere three passes in his NFL debut, but the expectation is that he will get considerably more reps against Philadelphia. Along with Maye, I'm looking forward to seeing if Joe Milton III can build off his impressive debut that included a touchdown pass and this nifty run."
4. Cowboys at Raiders (Saturday, Aug. 17, 10 p.m. ET on NFLN). "Quarterback is a main reason why this game cracked my top-five list. ... There's also an interesting quarterback situation in Dallas, albeit for the primary backup spot behind Dak Prescott. The question is whether or not former first round Trey Lance can challenge Cooper Rush for QB2."
5. Vikings at Browns (Saturday, Aug. 17, 4:25 p.m. ET). "J.J. McCarthy's rookie season lasted just one preseason game. McCarthy is out, and former No. 2 overall pick Sam Darnold will play in his stead. ... I'm curious to see how he does in what could very well be his final chance to be a starting quarterback, starting with Saturday's showdown with Cleveland."
If you want to check out the rest of Bryan's ranking, you can do that here. And remember, Week 2 of the preseason kicks off tonight with the Patriots hosting the Eagles at 7 p.m. ET on NFL Network.
5. One possible breakout player for every NFL team in 2024
Every year, the NFL produces several unexpected breakout players who come out of nowhere to have a big season. I mean, I couldn't even spell Puka Nacua last August and he ended up being one of the top receivers in the NFL.
So who might have a breakout season this year? Jared Dubin went through and came up with one possible breakout player for each team and we're going to check out three of his selections below.
- Lions WR Jameson Williams. "His first two seasons have not gone as planned, what with the ACL rehab and a gambling suspension; but Williams' skill set brings something to the Detroit offense that nobody else can offer, and there's a big opportunity here for him to make an impact."
- Bills TE Dalton Kincaid. "He has a unique skill set in the context of Buffalo's other options, and he has also shown more of an ability to earn volume to date. The former first-rounder has every opportunity to be Josh Allen's top target."
- Bengals RB Chase Brown. "Brown didn't get a ton of opportunities as a rookie, but when he did, he should a knack for making big plays. Four of his 44 carries and three of his 14 receptions gained at least 15 yards. That's a much higher explosive-play rate than Cincinnati has gotten from its running backs in recent years, and he should have a chance for considerably more action in Year 2."
Dubin's full list includes 32 possible breakout players and you can see them all here.
6. Extra points: Colin Kaepernick has an NFL offer on the table
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Chargers offer coaching job to Colin Kaepernick. The former 49ers quarterback might not ever play in the NFL again, but he does officially have an offer on the table to return as a coach. Jim Harbaugh, who coached Kaepernick in San Francisco, has offered the 36-year-old an undisclosed job on his staff. You can check out the details of that story here.
- Cowboys beef up their defensive line with two moves. The Cowboys have added a lot depth on the defensive line over the past 12 hours. First, they acquired defensive tackle Jordan Phillips in a trade with the Giants that went down Wednesday night. They followed that up by signing veteran defensive end Carl Lawson today.
- Mark Andrew involved in car crash. The Ravens tight end sat out practice on Wednesday after being involved in a car crash. According to the team, Andrews was uninjured and he should be back on the field this week.
- Nickelodeon is getting another game. We had so much fun simulcasting the Super Bowl on Nickelodeon last year that we're putting another game on Nick in 2024. This year's game will happen in January for Super Wild Card Weekend.
