In the final game of Wild Card Weekend, the Los Angeles Rams will "host" the Minnesota Vikings in the league's first-ever neutral-site playoff game outside of the Super Bowl. In the wake of the devastating California wildfires, this game was moved to Arizona, and will be played at State Farm Stadium, home of the NFC West-rival Arizona Cardinals.
The Rams are the division champions, and would have had the home-field edge in this game despite the fact that Minnesota finished the season with the NFC's -- and NFL's -- second-best record at 14-3. The Rams started the season just 1-4, but after returning from their bye, they ripped off a 9-3 season-finishing stretch that included a win over these Vikings.
Minnesota claimed the No. 5 seed despite finishing just behind the Lions for the league's best record, and has to go on the road here in attempt to advance to the next round. The Vikings looked like world-beaters for most of 2024, but are coming off one of their worst games of the season in the de facto NFC North title game.
Which of these teams will advance to take on the Eagles next week? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Rams vs. Vikings where to watch
Date: Monday, Jan. 13 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting odds: Vikings -2.5, O/U 48 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Vikings have the ball
Minnesota is coming off arguably its worst offensive performance of the season. One of the other worst performances came back in Week 8 vs. L.A. The Vikes ran for only 64 yards in that game, with Aaron Jones averaging just north of 3 yards per carry. Sam Darnold actually fared pretty well, averaging almost 10 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and no interceptions. But he took three sacks and didn't create an explosive play (20-plus yards) in the pass game until midway through the third quarter.
Starting a few weeks after that Rams game, Darnold began playing essentially perfect football. Between Week 11 and Week 17, he completed 67.5% of his passes at an average of 8.3 yards per attempt, with 18 touchdowns against just two interceptions in seven games. He still took around two sacks per game during that stretch, but he stared down pressure and didn't flinch in a way he had never previously been able to in his career.
And then came the game against the Lions, where he looked like he was seeing ghosts again.
Which version of Darnold will we see on Monday night? The bet here is that we get the Darnold we saw for most of this season. The Rams can get some pressure in his face with Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Byron Young and more up front; but the infrastructure that has set him up for success throughout the season, remains in place. The offensive line is still strong. The receiving corps is still arguably the NFL's best. Kevin O'Connell is still there to scheme him into success.
Is it possible he melts down again like he did last week? Sure. But it seems somewhat unlikely that the Rams can replicate the defensive performance the Lions put forth in that game, which was one of the best any team had throughout the entire regular season. It's hard to see L.A.'s defensive backs playing quite as stickily against Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson as the Lions' unit did a week ago.
When the Rams have the ball
You know what you're getting with the Rams. There will be lots of 11 personnel looks. There will be lots of motion. There will be lots of misdirection. There will be a diverse array of runs. There will be lots of Matthew Stafford magic. And these days, there will be loooooooooots of Puka Nacua and not that much of any other receiver.
You similarly know what you're getting from the Vikings -- in a philosophical sense, if not necessarily where anybody might be playing or what their role is in a snap-to-snap basis. There will be lots of blitzing. Lots of zone coverage. A whole lot of aggressiveness when it comes to trying to force turnovers, which the Vikings did at the league's second-highest rate during the regular season.
In the first game between these two teams, the Rams controlled the ball with their run game and lots of short, efficient passes. Kyren Williams had 23 carries for 97 yards. Nacua and Cooper Kupp were on the receiving end of 17 of Stafford's 34 passing attempts, catching 12 of them for 157 yards and a touchdown. Stafford got the ball out before the rush bore down on him every single time -- he took zero sacks on 34 dropbacks.
That game was Nacua and Kupp's first game back from their respective injuries, and they didn't even play their full complement of snaps. Nacua was out there 57% of the time and Kupp played 58% of the snaps. And the Rams still put up 30 points in one of their best performances of the season.
The question, of course, is whether that performance is replicable. On one hand, it might be. Despite their prodigious pressure and turnover rates, the Vikings actually were somewhat vulnerable to the pass. They allowed the league's fifth-most passing yards and, despite all their sacks and turnovers, ranked a surprising 12th in net yards per attempt. Nacua and Kupp and Stafford are capable of burning even the best of pass defenses, and it wouldn't necessarily be surprising to see them do it again here.
The less likely repeat performance is the Rams getting as much as they did out of the run game. Minnesota totally shut down opposing rushing attacks throughout this season, Williams got an incredible 2.48 yards before contact per rush in that Week 8 game -- the third-highest mark any back posted against Minnesota this season, behind only the two games the Vikes played against Jahmyr Gibbs.
If the Rams are to find success here, it's likely to be through Stafford putting the offense on his back and connecting with his wideouts through tight windows. How often he can do so might be the single-biggest determining factor in the contest.
Prediction
Despite the gap in their records, these seem like two evenly-matched teams, and two teams whose strengths align with each other's. That should make for an incredibly fun football game. In a game like this, I'm going to defer to the single-best unit on either side of the ball, and I think that's the Vikings' defense, so we go with Minnesota in a close one. Pick: Vikings 26, Rams 23