There are two things with the NFC West we can't figure out -- which is the best team and which team has the best quarterback.
While the final month of the season will sort out the first question, let's take some time to attempt to find an answer to the second question that involves Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith and Brock Purdy.
In Week 14, the NFC West passing quartet had an average passer rating of 117.2, including two 130+ outings from Stafford and Purdy in their huge home victories over the Bills and Bears, respectively.
Stafford's 132.6 rating in the wild 44-42 win against Buffalo was his sixth outing with a rating over 100 and third over 120. The same goes for Purdy after his 145.4 rating in the blowout against Chicago.
With four games left on the 2024 regular season schedule, and two games separating first from last place, let's rank the quarterbacks for what is bound to be a chaotic division race down the stretch.
These rankings are not based on each quarterback's natural talent or the passer with which I'd start a franchise. It's how I'd rank them, within their respective offense, behind their offensive line, with their collection of skill-position talent.
4. Kyler Murray
Placing Murray fourth was not easy. These quarterbacks are incredibly close. On the season, Murray is tied for the highest Big-Time Throw rate (4.8%) of anyone in the division. And his Turnover-Worthy Play rate is 2.8%, second only to Geno Smith among those same four quarterbacks.
But Murray is at No. 4 for a few reasons. First and foremost, his recent play. While November featured a 22 of 24, 266-yard, one-touchdown masterpiece in a 31-6 trouncing of the Jets, his first two games of December have represented a downturn in efficiency and overall production.
Murray threw for 260 yards against the Vikings but tossed two critical interceptions in the 23-22 loss in Week 13. At home on Sunday, against a Seahawks defense that came in ranked 16th in EPA per play allowed in non-garbage time, Murray threw two more interceptions, both coming in the first quarter, in the 30-18 loss to Seattle, which dropped Arizona to 6-7 on the season.
I don't love his offensive line, and for as twitchy of an athlete as Murray is, he's been sacked 12 times since the start of November with a 6.8% sack rate, reasonably high for a quarterback with his improvisational capabilities. Marvin Harrison Jr. has flashed on splash plays as a rookie, but he hasn't dominated games, with three times as many games with fewer than 50 receiving yards (six) than those with 100-plus (two). Trey McBride has emerged as a potential new entrant into the elite tight end tier, and James Conner remains criminally underrated. But altogether, Murray has the least-encouraging supporting cast of any of these NFC West quarterbacks.
3. Brock Purdy
Placing Purdy at No. 3 is not meant as furthering the narrative about Purdy as nothing more than a game manager. The sample is large enough now. And this is not about selecting a quarterback to hypothetically start an expansion team.
The fact is, Purdy, in San Francisco, with Kyle Shanahan, and the assortment of skill-position studs and a sound run game, is a high-level quarterback. He does it differently than Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Purdy wins with elite anticipation, plus accuracy, smart decision-making and sneaky ad-libbing skill.
Now, he's not having quite the uber-efficient season of 2023, when I thought he deserved legitimate MVP consideration. His BTT rate is down from 5.1% last season to 4.0% after Week 14. His TWP play rate is essentially the same. His adjusted completion rate is about three percentage points lower than it was in 2023 and four lower than in his rookie seasons. Those statistical reasons are at the foundation of Purdy's No. 3 ranking here.
No Brandon Aiyuk hurts this offense. As does a banged-up Trent Williams at left tackle. And, my word, the 49ers are down to their fourth-string running back potentially after the injury to Isaac Guerendo against the Bears. A season ago, San Francisco was first in EPA per rush in non-garbage time situations. This season, the 49ers are 14th, so Purdy and Shanahan can't lean on the run with as much confidence. But as he demonstrated in Week 14, Purdy can still occasionally dice up a secondary. But this season, mostly with injuries to blame, feels different in San Francisco.
2. Geno Smith
It's been captivating to witness Smith revitalize his reputation over the past few years. He's played like he's operating the spread at West Virginia in the Pacific Northwest.
This season, he's been steady. His 4.8% BTT rate is tops in the division, and he's taken quality care of the football with the lowest TWP rate of the group at 2.2%. Those facts alone could be enough to place him ahead of his Cardinals and 49ers counterparts.
Beyond his individual play in 2024, Smith has an impressive group around him. DK Metcalf remains one of the most physically imposing receivers in football. While he's having somewhat of a down year and has battled injuries, Metcalf is still up over 800 yards on the season entering Week 15 with 54 receptions.
Tyler Lockett is Tyler Lockett. Ultra-steady.
Then there's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who's erupted onto the NFL scene in his second professional season. He's leading the team with 75 receptions for 911 yards through Week 14, and he's given Smith a go-to target out of the slot in essentially every game. Starting in November, JSN has 523 yards on 32 receptions across five games.
And the return of punishing right tackle Abraham Lucas has infused new life to Seattle's offense, as expected. It's coincided with the Seahawks' current four-game winning streak, during which Smith's pressure rate has dipped from 39% to 33.6%. Coincidently, Smith has completed 73.3% of his passes with five BTTs to just 2 TWP plays in that span. Plus, I love the aggressive, vertical nature of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Smith can still really spin it, and his environment in Seattle is quite good.
1. Matthew Stafford
I promise this top billing is not fueled by recency bias -- because Stafford cooked at a Michelin-star level against the Bills. Stafford hasn't thrown an interception since Week 10, and in that four-game stretch, he has amassed eight Big-Time Throws to a mere one Turnover-Worthy Play.
Puka Nacua is seemingly fully healthy -- although he did look to aggravate his calf against the Bills -- and so is Cooper Kupp. Both are borderline elite wideouts who, together, have caught 83 passes the past six games from Stafford. Vitally, for a quarterback in his mid-30s without freaky athleticism, Stafford's sack rate is a respectable 4.5% since the start of November.
And we all know how ridiculous of an arm Stafford has. That hasn't dissipated whatsoever. He still has an absolute hose. It's been the trademark of his game since his collegiate career at Georgia preceded him being the No. 1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Plus, he's operating in Sean McVay's time-tested system and hands it to probably the most underrated back in the league in Kyren Williams, who has eclipsed 1,000 yards and has 12 touchdowns for the second-consecutive season. In short, the Rams are balanced, and that is always a benefit to a quarterback. After Sunday's action in Week 14, the Rams are 15th in EPA per drop back and 11th in EPA per rushing attempt in non-garbage time scenarios.
Stafford -- with his arm, behind what is an ascending offensive line, with a sound running game, and Nacua and Kupp -- is the best quarterback in the NFC West.
