Ranking wild-card losers' chances to return to NFL playoffs next season: Packers have staying power

This season's NFL wild card round was historically close:

• 12 fourth-quarter lead changes (most in a single postseason already)
• four game-winning drives in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter (most in a single postseason already)
• four games decided by one possession 

The winners of the weekend have already put those triumphs in the rearview with divisional round games on the horizon. But the losers? The losers are first digging into what went wrong before moving ahead to a longer-than-desired offseason. After all, the best way to make improvements is to first self-scout and figure out what needs to change. Only then will these teams truly move forward.

But make no mistake: Those narrow misses will weigh heavily, at least for a bit. How close were they to really making a run? Or, on the other hand, how many flaws did the minuscule difference on the scoreboard hide?

The margins in the NFL are tiny. Teams seemingly heading in the right direction one season can reverse course the next; over the past five seasons, there's been an average of six playoff teams that didn't make the playoffs the season before. That also means there's an average of six teams that go the other way -- from in the playoffs one year to out of them the next.

So, how much staying power do the six teams that lost this weekend have? We ranked them all on the confidence we have in them returning to the postseason next year.

1. Green Bay Packers

One can have qualms about whether Matt LaFleur can get the Packers over the championship hump, but there is little doubting the high, high floor he provides as a coach. He has missed the postseason just once in seven seasons at the helm in Green Bay. After some doubt, he is expected to return.

So, too, are several of his most important players who ended the year injured. Micah Parsons (ACL) said an early-season return is realistic, and Tucker Kraft and Devonte Wyatt expect to be good to go for Week 1. They' add to a core that already includes Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Edgerrin Cooper, Quay Walker, Evan Williams and others.

The Packers were the NFL's youngest team for the second year in a row. They have a ton of young and in-their-prime talent. Love is coming off the best year of his career. A return to the playoffs should be the low end of the Packers' 2026 projections.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have now alternated first-round playoff exits with Super Bowl appearances each of the past five seasons. Similarly, they have alternated great coordinator hires with underwhelming ones. After the 2022 Super Bowl loss, Nick Sirianni lost both coordinators (Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon) to head coaching jobs. Their replacements, both Brian Johnson Sean Desai, lasted just one year. In came Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio, and the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Then Moore got hired away, and Kevin Patullo came in. That didn't work out well.

That puts the onus on Sirianni again. Can the offense get back on track? There's still plenty of star talent, though just about every player across the unit had a down year, and A.J. Brown's ended on a particularly dour note. The defense is still absolutely loaded, though, and the NFC East isn't particularly strong. There are clear questions to answer beyond plans at offensive coordinator, but the overall talent of depth of this roster remains among the NFL's best.

After a surprisingly quick exit from the playoffs, the Eagles find themselves with more questions than answers

Jared Dubin

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars ascended from mediocre start to one of the NFL's best teams behind Trevor Lawrence's outstanding second half of the season. The Jaguars also fielded a stalwart run defense, an aggressive, ball-hawking secondary and an intriguing group of wide receivers. Liam Coen turned a four-win team into a 13-win division champion, no small feat.

Jacksonville has a few key free agents to retain; both Devin Lloyd and Travis Etienne will be commanding upper-tier contracts for their respective positions, and Greg Newsome and Andrew Wingard were integral parts of the secondary. The Jaguars don't have a first-round pick, either, as a result of the Travis Hunter draft-night trade. As such, Hunter will be crucial in raising Jacksonville's ceiling. He played roughly two-thirds of Jacksonville's offensive snaps and just over one-third of its defensive snaps before a season-ending injury. What will Year 2 hold?

4. Los Angeles Chargers

Of all the teams on this list, the Chargers might have to have the longest look in the mirror after yet another one-and-done playoff trip. Six years in, Justin Herbert still hasn't won a playoff game, and there are significant questions to answer about both him and, more importantly, what's around him. Without bookend tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, the offensive line crumbled. The running game was one of the NFL's worst. The three points scored in the wild card loss the New England Patriots were the Chargers' fewest in over 30 years, and after, Jim Harbaugh didn't exactly give a ringing endorsement of offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

There's a chance he's replacing both coordinators, but only one on his own volition; defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is a hot names on the coaching carousel. On one hand, the Chargers' defense is as good as it's ever been opposite Herbert. On the other hand, that defense may be under new leadership next year, and the offense was just about as bad as it's ever been with Herbert.

The interior of the offensive line needs a makeover. The Denver Broncos aren't going anywhere in the AFC West, and the Kansas City Chiefs should be back. There's a long, long list of free agents. It's time for the Chargers to make a big swing this offseason.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers' remarkable run of never having a losing season under Mike Tomlin continued this year. So, too, did their run of not winning a playoff game; their last postseason win was nearly a decade ago.

The first question will be quarterback. Is Aaron Rodgers back? If not, who is behind center? The Steelers have been stuck in the good-not-great category for so long that they haven't had a top pick to go the rookie route at quarterback, and their lone dive into the first-round quarterback pool resulted in Kenny Pickett, which didn't work out. Can Pittsburgh find another veteran to keep the train rolling?

Then there's the coach question. Will Tomlin be back? Should he be back? He, like Rodgers, was mum on his future. Will the ceiling be higher than one-and-done playoff team under him? The Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals should be better next year, too.

NFL wild card winners and losers: Mike Tomlin's Steelers at breaking point after historic playoff loss

Tyler Sullivan

6. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers had an honorable showing in their first playoff trip in nearly a decade, leading the Los Angeles Rams late before ultimately coming up short. There are some cornerstones in place on both offense (Tetairoa McMillan) and defense (Derrick Brown, Jaycee Horn). Still, there are far too many questions to pencil the Panthers any higher than this. Carolina went 8-9. Its -69 point differential was the fourth-worst by any playoff team. Bryce Young was in the bottom half of most major statistical categories. Give him credit for coming up big in several clutch situations, but there is still a long way to go on both sides of the ball.