The defining characteristics of the Bill Belichick era in New England, aside from all the championships, is attention to detail, near-perfect execution and dominant situational football. In a time of year when they always start peaking, New England instead finds itself looking fallible and falling further away from securing a bye in the playoffs.
This is a big deal: New England's had a lot of success with Belichick and Tom Brady, but since 2001, they have never advanced to the Super Bowl without having a bye. The last time the Patriots didn't have a bye? 2009, when the Pats lost to the Ravens after Ray Rice opened things up with a long touchdown run. Wes Welker tore his ACL in a final meaningless Week 17 game against the Texans; it feels like that's when Belichick changed his approach to resting players.
Only once have the Patriots even made it to the AFC Championship Game without having a bye, back in 2006 when they were the fourth seed in the AFC. We are not dealing with a huge sample size here. The Patriots have missed the playoffs twice in 17 years with the Brady/Belichick combo (once when Brady tore his ACL in 2008) and not secured a bye three other times.
In the 12 years where New England locked up one of the top two seeds in the AFC, they went to the Super Bowl a ridiculous eight times. Three of the other four years they lost in the AFC Championship Game. Only once with a bye has New England failed to advance to the conference championship. It's simply remarkable.
And a bye could happen this year. New England has two home games remaining against the Jets and Bills. They're likely winning both and just need one to secure the AFC East title. 1-1 probably gets them the third seed -- the Steelers still have to head to New Orleans next week. Mess around though, and the Patriots could be hosting the Chargers or Chiefs in the first playoff weekend. That's no prize.
There's reason to believe the Patriots might mess around a little bit too, what with the their struggles against the Steelers, which come off the heels of a loss in Miami. New England lost back-to-back games in December for the first time since 2002. This was just their 11th loss in December since Brady took over.
But they're not just slumping, they're playing bad football. The Patriots were penalized 14 times on Sunday against the Steelers, their most in a game since 2014. Say what you will about whether each penalty should have been called, but the Patriots kept making bad mistakes at inopportune times. With the Pats trailing 14-10, Brady hit Julian Edelman for a big gain to get in the red zone. Everyone knew what was coming, but the opposite happened. Sony Michel ran for two yards and was bailed out by a whistle on a should-have-been fumble. The next play was a Patriots false start, followed by a short pass to Chris Hogan to set up a third-and-8. After Rob Gronkowski used his superpowers to pick up a first down, Marcus Cannon got tagged for holding.
Two plays later, Brady was pressured and pressing and, while trying to throw a ball away, managed to throw a red zone pick, his first since 2016.
You never see the Pats produce that sequence of plays -- it almost always goes the other way -- but we've seen it happen in multiple spots over the last two weeks. At the end of the first half against Miami, Brady took a sack when the Pats didn't have a timeout, and the result was New England failing to get a field goal attempt. This mattered, because the Patriots gave up a game winning touchdown play on a hook-and-ladder move by the Dolphins and lost by two points. Yes, it should be concerning that Gronk was in that game as a safety, which is the exact sort of thing Belichick doesn't let happen on his watch.
New England got another look in the Steelers game, too. Down 17-10, having barely held the Steelers to a Chris Boswell field goal, the Patriots stormed down the field again, looking to tie things up and force overtime. New England got to the 11-yard line with a second-and-5 and promptly had another holding call on Shaq Mason. Three missed throws from Brady later, and the Steelers were celebrating their playoff rebirth on their home field.
All told New England ended up being penalized 14 times, the most for the Patriots since 2014. It was a sloppy game, just like their loss in Miami.
I don't know how you explain it. Belichick didn't magically lose his fastball overnight. Brady is 41 and there are signs of aging, even if they're subtle. He's still very good. Gronk is definitely not the same guy right now -- he looks like he's laboring out here.
Road games are hard. The Steelers are good. They'll probably come back and blow out the Jets and Bills, get a Eagles win over the Texans and steal a bye anyway. But there is something just off about the Patriots over the last two weeks. And right now it merits watching, because they could end up facing their most difficult playoff path in nearly a decade.
ZimmerBall
Speaking of the Vikings, boy did they do exactly what Mike Zimmer promised on Sunday. After firing OC John DeFilippo, Minnesota jumped all over Miami, getting out to a 21-0 lead on the Dolphins, smothering them defensively and pounding the ball with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. It was exactly what Zimmer wanted to see: a balanced offense that ground out the game and let his defense destroy the other team.
Cook, finally healthy, lit up the Dolphins offense. And the Vikings, sufficiently angry, lit up Ryan Tannehill, sacking him a Bueller-esque nine times. Minnesota gave up a pick-six from Kirk Cousins and did allow the Dolphins to get back in the game, with Miami climbing towards 21-17. But then the Vikings put foot on gas and pulled away for an easy 41-17 victory.
Let's see how the offensive line holds up over the next two weeks, but on Sunday, they were certainly good enough to run the ball effectively, which helped to set up Cousins in the play-action game.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, they have the Lions (road) and Bears (home) left on the docket. The Lions are certainly a beatable team, and you can expect the Vikings will be favored. But that's a road division game. The real stinger is the Rams losing on Sunday night, which opens up the Bears to earn a bye if they can win out and the Rams stumble again.
Chicago should be giving max effort in Week 17, provided things don't go south for them next week. And that makes the Vikings' path to the playoffs that much more difficult.
Bear down (or up?)
Broke it down here in longer fashion, but the Chicago Bears clinching the NFC North at home against Aaron Rodgers, on a day when Vic Fangio's defense had its way with the all-world quarterback, is incredibly symbolic. Colleague Sean Wagner-McGough, who happens to be a Bears fan, predicted this outcome, claiming we would see a changing of the guard on Sunday. He wasn't wrong: Rodgers got knocked down quickly, did his best Undertaker impression and then got punched right back onto the canvas.
Chicago answered the bell in excellent fashion, and Matt Nagy faced some adversity that had Bears fans starting to get a little nervous. Rodgers was 8-2 in Chicago since being drafted before Sunday. Whenever he needed a big game in Chicago, he had one. Until now. Like Brady, maybe there's a little bit of aging going on here? That feels dangerous to say, but this has been a rough year for the Packers quarterback.
The Bears are fully capable of making a Super Bowl run with that defense, those weapons and a good coach. With the Rams losing on Sunday to Philly, they can end up getting the bye, but it's not likely. Assuming they stick at the No. 3 seed, here's how I would rank their potential playoff opponents in terms of who they'd like to see:
1. Redskins -- Josh Johnson at quarterback, a decimated defense and a decimated offensive line. The Bears would be double-digit favorites over Washington, the longest shot of all these teams to get in.
2. Panthers -- Cam Newton is scary, but Carolina's defense isn't good this year and the offensive line is a major problem. Khalil Mack would do damage, and a lot of it.
3. Eagles -- Say what you want about Nick Foles, but he's doing Nick Foles things again and people should be petrified. The Eagles defensive line could create issues for Mitchell Trubisky and Jim Schwartz is a mad scientist.
4. Vikings -- I know their offensive line is bad, but if they can establish the run like they did Sunday with Dalvin Cook, they're much more balanced. Kirk Cousins looked largely comfortable too. And defensively they're the best team on this list.
NFC East remains interesting
What a wild day in the NFL's weirdest division. The Giants were officially eliminated with their loss to the Titans on Sunday. Everyone wasted a lot of time and money talking about their chance to make the postseason. (Guilty here with the Packers in this very space.)
The Giants were worthy of an F grade from John Breech, as were the Dallas Cowboys thanks to Dallas being shut out for the first time since 2003. They were trounced by the Colts, a team that isn't supposed to be as physical as the Cowboys. It felt like Dallas thought they were going in for a coronation and instead got kicked in the teeth.
Dallas still has the heavy lead to win the division. They have 90 percent odds of doing so. But they have to beat the Buccaneers at home and the Giants on the road. Those are prime slip-up opportunities, although Ezekiel Elliott should run for 200 yards against Tampa. I wouldn't want to go to New York needing to win to land the division; the Giants get weird in those spots and will play harder than they have all year long.
If that happens, the Redskins and Eagles can both take advantage, but obviously need to win out. Dallas holds tiebreakers over both. And the Redskins and Eagles play in Week 17 -- one of them is getting to nine wins (they could tie in theory) if they can both win in Week 16. The Eagles host the Texans, while the Redskins play the Titans in Tennessee. They could both lose, in which case Dallas would also clinch.
Washington and Philadelphia both remain in the wild card hunt as well, but winning out is likely necessary there as well. I would expect the Vikings to get to 8-7-1 in their worst-case scenario.