Four months after the 2024 NFL season kicked off, the field is set for the playoffs, which begin with Wild Card Weekend. The AFC South champion Houston Texans (10-7) get things started when they host the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) on Saturday, and the day concludes with an AFC North showdown between the division-winning Baltimore Ravens (12-5) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7).
Three games take place on Sunday, with the Denver Broncos (10-7) visiting the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (13-4) in the opener. The NFC East-winning Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) host the Green Bay Packers (11-6) in the second contest, while the tripleheader ends when the Washington Commanders (12-5) visit the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7). The wild-card round wraps up on Monday night, when the NFC West-winning Los Angeles Rams (10-7) host the Minnesota Vikings (14-3).
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) and Detroit Lions (15-2) earned the right to sit back and watch things unfold before beginning their quest for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, as they finished as the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively.
Looking to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowl titles, Kansas City had one of the best regular seasons in franchise history, losing just one of its first 16 games before resting its key players in the finale - a 38-0 setback at Denver. And even though 11 of their 15 victories were by eight points or fewer, the Chiefs still are among the favorites to reign supreme this postseason.
Six of the contests Kansas City won were decided on the final play, including one in overtime, and the outcome of two others were determined by defensive plays in the final minute.
Another reason the Chiefs are a front-runner is their stellar play at home. Kansas City went 8-0 at Arrowhead Stadium this season and has won 10 straight games there since dropping a 20-14 decision to the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day 2023.
Prior to last postseason, when they had to face Buffalo and Baltimore on the road after dominating the Miami Dolphins at home in the wild-card round, the Chiefs played all 11 of their AFC playoff contests during the Patrick Mahomes era in their own building and won nine of them - with both losses coming in overtime.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, Kansas City captures the Lombardi Trophy for the fourth time in six years in 15% of its simulations. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Chiefs are second in the conference behind the Bills, who win the Super Bowl 15.6% of the time.
However, the model believes Detroit will be the last team standing and claim its first crown since winning the NFL Championship in 1957. The Lions led the league in scoring with an average of 33.2 points and were second in both total and passing offense at 409.5 and 263.2 yards per game, respectively.
Jared Goff was the second-leading passer in the NFL with 4,629 yards and ranked fourth with a career-high 37 touchdown tosses. The 30-year-old made at least three TD throws seven times in 2024 and went without one only twice, wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown finished third in the league with 12 scoring receptions and second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs led all players with 20 total touchdowns - including an NFL high-tying 16 on the ground.
Despite the absence of David Montgomery (knee) - who had 12 rushing TDs before getting hurt - and numerous players on defense, Detroit limited Minnesota to 262 total yards and did not allow a touchdown in a 31-9 triumph in the Week 18 battle between the 14-win division rivals. The victory gave the Lions their second straight NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference for the first time in team history.
In addition to a first-round bye, that gives Detroit home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. The team won all eight of its road games this season, but it is quite comfortable playing indoors, where it went 7-2 at Ford Field and 9-2 overall.
The model says the Lions win the Super Bowl in 18.2% of its simulations, with the closest NFC team being the Eagles at 12.2%. Completing the model's top five are the Ravens, who win their first Lombardi Trophy since 2012 and third overall 12.4% of the time.
According to the model, the team that is the best value in the postseason is Green Bay. The club lost quarterback Jordan Love (elbow) and receiver Christian Watson (knee) in 24-22 loss to the Chicago Bears in the regular-season finale, but while Watson likely is done for the season, head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters on Monday that he believes Love will be fine for the wild-card meeting with Philadelphia.
The Packers gave the Eagles fits in their season-opening 34-29 loss in Brazil and could have them right where they want them, if last year is an indication. Philadelphia either rested or played its starters sparingly in its final regular-season game in 2023, and the team never got going in its 32-9 setback at Tampa Bay in the wild-card round.
TEAM | SIMULATION% | IMPLIED ODDS% | VALUE% |
Detroit Lions | 18.2% | 23.8% | -5.6% |
Buffalo Bills | 15.6% | 14.3% | 1.3% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 15.0% | 21.3% | -6.3% |
Baltimore Ravens | 12.4% | 15.4% | -3.0% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 12.2% | 13.3% | -1.1% |
Green Bay Packers | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.6% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 3.3% | 3.8% | -0.5% |
Minnesota Vikings | 3.1% | 6.7% | -3.6% |
Washington Commanders | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
Houston Texans | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
Los Angeles Rams | 1.4% | 2.8% | -1.4% |
Denver Broncos | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
No. 2 seed Buffalo (-8.5) and No. 3 Baltimore (-9.5) both are favored by more than a touchdown in their respective AFC wild-card games against Pittsburgh and Denver. Philadelphia, the second seed in the NFC, is the biggest favorite in that conference's matchups at -4.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model is calling for close contests in four of the six playoff games this weekend, and one of them has an A-grade pick based on simulations for the wild-card round. You can find that top-tier NFL pick and every other Wild Card Weekend selection at SportsLine.
