If you have a quarterback, you have a chance. If you don't, you don't. And through four games, Jayden Daniels looks like he could be the long-awaited answer at quarterback for the Commanders. The numbers behind Washington's 3-1 start are impressive regardless of context, but even more so given the context of just how much the team has struggled at the game's most important position.
Regardless of context, Daniels' 82.1% completion percentage is patently absurd -- the best in any four-game stretch in NFL history (min. 50 attempts), just ahead of a peak Peyton Manning stretch in 2008. The Commanders have a 54.6% success rate, best in the NFL this season. It would be the second-best on record (since 2000), behind the 2011 Saints. Washington's 0.27 expected points added per play is double that of the league's second-best offense this season (the Bills) and, again, would be the best on record, this time just ahead of the 2004 Colts.
But then add in these numbers, seemingly innocuous until you realize how long it's been since Washington's done it. Back-to-back games with at least 38 points? First time for the franchise since 1991 ... when it went on to win the Super Bowl. And a 3-1 start? Maybe not a huge deal until you realize it's Washington's first time since 2011.
"You talk about it, and you make sure -- you want them to feel that emotion in the locker room after a win," coach Dan Quinn said Monday after the team returned from a 42-14 win over Arizona. "We have a real process that we go through every single week to go get us ready to play, and that begins today and all the way through tomorrow and into Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. We have a theme of every day. So, by staying consistent in that approach, I think that helps avoid the highs and lows. And I hope, and what I told the team earlier is just an absolute obsession with getting better and that's what we need to chase. Not what happened in the last game, but just an absolute obsession on things that we can improve on. Because, quite honestly, we think we can improve in a lot of areas."
Washington knows glimpses of fool's gold success all too well, but perhaps all the newness, from the new coaching staff to the new quarterback to the overhauled roster, can be something that lasts. Time will tell. Washington hasn't exactly faced a murderers' row of defenses -- all four of Washington's opponents rank 20th or worse in defensive success rate -- but part of that is that Washington has done well against of them. Plus, you can only play who's on your schedule. Speaking of that schedule, next up is a talented Cleveland defense that ranks eighth in defensive success rate.
But for now, with Daniels ripping up record books, here's what's working for Washington.
1. Staying on schedule, and staying composed when they're not
The Commanders have done an exceptional job staying on schedule, as the aforementioned success rate suggests. Only 22.9% of Washington's plays have gone for 0 or negative yards, the lowest rate in the NFL and just better of high-powered attacks such as the Ravens and Lions.
But still, that means more than one in every five plays goes nowhere or, even worse, backward. It's how the Commanders -- not just Daniels -- respond after these plays. Washington is currently producing 0.52 expected points added per play on plays immediately following a play that goes for 0 or negative yards. This also likely isn't sustainable: The 2004 Colts hold the best mark for an entire season at 0.43. But it speaks volumes to Daniels' preternatural calm as well as Kliff Kingsbury's creativity. Washington has used a lot of looks -- added protection, pre-snap motion and even run plays -- to get moving when behind the chains.
The run game has been a huge help. Washington has the league's most expected points added on rushing plays after finishing 21st in that category last year. An NFL-best 10 touchdowns rushing helps, but so, too, do the little plays that move the sticks. Only the Ravens and Saints have more runs that result in first downs, and while Daniels' overall ground numbers aren't gaudy, his ability to convert is crucial. As we see here, not every 3-yard rush -- this one to convert a third-and-1 -- is created equal.
Brian Robinson Jr., meanwhile, brings the thunder to Daniels' lightning; Robinson's 3.92 yards after contact per rush is sixth in the NFL.
Again, this sort of efficiency isn't likely to last. If it does, we're looking at an all-time great offense. But a big reason for the success has been another unexpected development ...
2. Offensive line playing well, and Daniels managing pressure
There were plenty of questions surrounding this roster entering the season, and among the biggest -- and the most pressing, given the rookie quarterback -- was the offensive line.
So far, Washington's group has stepped up, with multiple left tackles (Cornelius Lucas and Brandon Coleman) playing alongside new left guard Nick Allegretti and new center Tyler Biadasz, with holdovers at right guard and right tackle in Sam Cosmi and Andrew Wylie. Washington currently grades out as the fourth-best pass blocking unit for Pro Football Focus. The team has allowed the 10th-lowest pressure rate in the league, too.
Daniels has done a good job mitigating and navigating pressure, a key aspect for young quarterbacks adjusting to NFL speed and size. He has been sacked on 21% of his pressured dropbacks, 15th in the league. That may not sound great, but consider the player taken ahead of him, Caleb Williams, has been sacked 30% of the time he's been pressured. Daniels' scrambling has been excellent, but so, too, has his pocket presence. He's been willing to hang in and deliver some throws.
Again, the Daniels and the line will be tested -- Myles Garrett and the rest of Cleveland's pass rush is no joke -- but for now, it's so far, so good.
3. Terry McLaurin's emergence and movement
After a quiet Week 1, Terry McLaurin has come on, and his moving around the formation has been a big reason why.
Terry McLaurin This Season | Snaps as Left WR | Stats as Left WR | Snaps as Right WR | Stats as Right WR |
Week 1 at Buccaneers | 44 | 4 tgt, 2 rec, 17 yds | 2 | 0 tgt, 0 rec, 0 yds |
Week 2 vs. Giants | 56 | 6 tgt, 4 rec, 27 yds | 7 | 2 tgt, 2 rec, -5 yds |
Week 3 at Bengals | 38 | 4 tgt, 2 rec, 59 yds | 10 | 2 tgt, 2 rec, 41 yds, 1 TD |
Week 4 at Cardinals | 39 | 7 tgt, 5 rec, 39 yds, 1 TD | 7 | 3 tgt, 2 rec, 13 yds |
Washington's biggest play of the season, Daniels' touchdown to McLaurin late in Week 3, came at the wide receiver's request, according to the Washington Post. You'll notice he's on the right side for that one.
Washington seems to have found something in physical rookie Luke McCaffrey and veteran Noah Brown, but McLaurin is still the clear No. 1. Moving him around has helped change his and the offense's trajectories.