Who won the NFL offseason? Betting market identifies two surprise standouts, while Colts rank last
We take a look at the change in win total markets with the majority of offseason player movement in the books
Last month, we took a look at the initial win total odds for all 32 NFL teams from DraftKings and analyzed the projected schedule for each team to see where potential value could be. Of course, a lot was still to be determined with the Super Bowl just having wrapped up and free agency ahead. However, we're now past a significant mile marker of the NFL offseason, with most of the player movement that will happen now in the books a few weeks from the start of NFL free agency.
Eighty-four of the 100 players on Pete Prisco's top free agent list have new deals in place. That includes all of the top 30, which features the Raiders landing No. 1 free agent Tyler Linderbaum, the Ravens balancing that loss by scooping up No. 2 free agent Trey Hendrickson, and top quarterback Kyler Murray heading to the Vikings.
With most of the major moves now in the books, we can now revisit our initial win totals column and compare to current DraftKings odds to see who the betting market has been most and least impressed by. Of course, if a difference-maker like A.J. Brown switches teams, it could cause a quick shift in the win total odds for the teams involved, but this should be a good snapshot of how the market is initially judging the NFL offseason for all 32 teams.
Here's how to generally project win totals based on the market: Any movement from the -110 juice on a win total causes a shift of 0.01 wins for every 1 cent. For example, if a 10.5-win team is listed at -120 on the Over, we consider that team to be projected at 10.6 wins. If a team is -120 on Under 10.5 wins, they are projected with 10.4 wins.
The main takeaways: The market loves what the Panthers and Raiders have done, while the Colts have not impressed.
NFL offseason rankings: Win total shifts
| Team | 2/19 | 3/26 | Diff | Notable adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 6.6 | 7.3 | 0.7 | ED J.Phillips, LB D.Lloyd |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.2 | 5.8 | 0.6 | C T.Linderbaum, ED K.Paye, LB Q.Walker, LB N.Dean |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.8 | 11.2 | 0.4 | CB J.Watson, CB T.McDuffie |
| New York Jets | 5.2 | 5.55 | 0.35 | ED J.Ossai, LB D.Davis |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.85 | 11.15 | 0.3 | ED T.Hendrickson, G J.Simpson |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.2 | 8.5 | 0.3 | CB J.Dean, WR M.Pittman, RB R.Dowdle |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6.8 | 7.1 | 0.3 | QB T.Tagovailoa |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.1 | 10.35 | 0.25 | WR M.Evans, DL O.Odighizuwa |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.2 | 8.45 | 0.25 | QB K.Murray |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.7 | 8.9 | 0.2 | S J.Thompson, ED R.Gary |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 | 9.65 | 0.15 | OT B.Smith, RB D.Montgomery |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | 7.65 | 0.15 | ED O.Oweh, ED K.Chaisson |
| Miami Dolphins | 4.5 | 4.65 | 0.15 | QB M.Willis |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.4 | 7.5 | 0.1 | OT D.Edwards, RB T.Etienne, LB K.Elliss |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 | 9.55 | 0.05 | WR J.Waddle |
| New York Giants | 7.3 | 7.35 | 0.05 | TE I.Likely, OT J.Euemunor, LB T.Edmunds |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.65 | 10.7 | 0.05 | ED B.Chubb, WR D.Moore |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.7 | 10.7 | 0 | RB E.Wilson |
| Chicago Bears | 9.4 | 9.4 | 0 | S C.Bryant |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.8 | 6.8 | 0 | DL J.Franklin-Myers, CB A.Taylor, WR W.Robinson, CB C.Flott |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.4 | 10.35 | -0.05 | DL J.Hargrave, LB Z.Franklin |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.35 | 10.2 | -0.15 | CB T.Woolen, WR M.Brown |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10.3 | 10.15 | -0.15 | C T.Biadasz |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.55 | 9.4 | -0.15 | ED B.Maye, S B.Cook, DL J.Allen |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.4 | 6.2 | -0.2 | G Z.Johnson, C E.Jenkins |
| New England Patriots | 9.8 | 9.6 | -0.2 | WR R.Doubs, G A.Vera-Tucker, ED D.Jones |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.4 | 9.2 | -0.2 | RB C.Rodriguez |
| Detroit Lions | 10.7 | 10.45 | -0.25 | C C.Mays |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.45 | 10.2 | -0.25 | RB K.Walker, QB J.Fields |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.8 | 8.45 | -0.35 | DL A.Robinson, LB A.Anzalone, RB K.Gainwell |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | G I.Seumalo, RB T.Allgeier, QB G.Minshew |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.35 | 7.8 | -0.55 | ED A.Key |
The Panthers shelled out the biggest contract of the offseason in terms of total value and average annual value, giving former Eagles edge rusher Jaelan Phillips a four-year, $120 million deal with $80 million in total guarantees. That last number comes in slightly below the new deals signed by Linderbaum and Colts receiver Alec Pierce, but when combined with the addition of former Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd, it's clear the Panthers defense is seen as undergoing a significant upgrade this offseason. The Panthers did lose defensive lineman A'Shawn Robinson, center Cade Mays and running back Rico Dowdle, but the market has elevated the Panthers more than any other team in terms of win total since our initial look at the DraftKings odds.
Close behind is the Raiders despite playing in a difficult division. The movement can't be attributed to the upcoming addition of Fernando Mendoza since we already had that information when the Raiders were projected by the market at 5.2 wins. That's jumped up to 5.8 wins with Linderbaum headlining a group of seven players to receive at least $10 million in average value on new contracts from Las Vegas. Five of those seven play on the defensive side of the ball, with edge rusher Kwity Paye joining linebackers Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean as new additions.
The Rams check in third with their raiding of the Chiefs for cornerback upgrades, signing Jaylen Watson in free agency and trading for Trent McDuffie. With the moves, the Rams go from a close race with the Seahawks for NFC West supremacy to the clear favorite with a half-win edge.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Colts handed out the biggest deal of the offseason in terms of total guarantees when they re-signed receiver Alec Pierce for $114 million over four years. Between that move and the extension for Daniel Jones, Indy didn't have much else it was able to do in terms of additions even after clearing Michael Pittman's contract by trading the receiver to the Steelers, as edge rushers Arden Key (two years, $16 million) and Michael Clemons (three years, $17 million) were the only incoming players to receive at least $3 million in average annual value.
Just ahead of the Colts, we find a Cardinals team that jettisoned Kyler Murray at quarterback and appears headed for a competition between Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew at the most important position in football. In what might be the toughest division in the league, it may already be time to start planning for how to win the 2027 NFL offseason in Arizona.
