Stanley Cup contender tiers: Lightning look like favorites, Panthers in some trouble as NHL season resumes
Which teams can make a real push for the Stanley Cup in 2026?
Following a whirlwind of world-class hockey at the Olympics, which culminated with the United States sweeping the men's and women's tournaments, it's time for the NHL to resume play. As the home stretch of the season begins, it's time to refocus on the race toward the Stanley Cup. Which teams are real contenders to lift hockey's greatest prize in June?
If you need a refresher, or if you've decided to jump on the NHL bandwagon after the Olympics, this exercise should serve as a quick refresher for where every team stands as the regular season resumes on Wednesday night.
For much of the season, two teams have been head and shoulders above everyone else. The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche are the best teams in the NHL, and that's something the eye test and the underlying numbers agree with.
Beyond those two, there are a handful of Stanley Cup contenders who look poised for deep playoff runs. It's a pretty wide-open race with a few teams, like the Ottawa Senators, who are strong in many areas but possess one or two flaws. Then, there are the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. They need to kick it into high gear just to make the playoffs. But if they do, we all know they're capable of grinding down their opponents.
Let's take a look at where each team stands in the race for the Stanley Cup as the NHL resumes play.
The favorites
- Tampa Bay Lightning
- Colorado Avalanche
The Lightning and Avalanche have been the two best teams in the NHL by a wide margin this season. Despite dealing with a long list of injuries, Tampa Bay has continued to roll through its schedule. Nikita Kucherov is on pace for 146 points, Janis Moser and Darren Raddysh have been revelations on the blue line and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy looks like a brick wall.
Colorado got off to a roaring start, but it has cooled off in 2026. The Avs are 7-7-2 over their last 16 games, but they still have all the ingredients to win the Stanley Cup. Nathan MacKinnon is playing at a Hart Trophy level, Cale Makar is the best defenseman on the planet and Brock Nelson has given the team a strong second-line center.
Contenders
The Hurricanes once again look like a threat to make a deep run in the Eastern Conference, but do they have enough offensive firepower at the top of the lineup to finish the job? That seems to be the annual question for Carolina.
Dallas was one of the hottest teams in the league heading into the Olympic break, winning six straight games. The Stars have been eliminated in the Western Conference Final three years in a row, and it looks like they're destined to get at least that far again in 2026.
Since acquiring Olympic hero Quinn Hughes, the Wild are 16-5-5, and look capable of giving other contenders in the West all they can handle. One of those contenders is the Golden Knights, which has had trouble getting reliable goaltending. If Vegas can get the crease sorted out, it will be very dangerous.
Dark horses
The Mammoth are a promising young squad that appears to be turning a corner, especially with center Logan Cooley returning to the lineup. The Ducks are in a similar boat with a lengthy rebuild finally yielding results, but they might be a little too green to be a real Stanley Cup threat.
The Senators have been a tremendous five-on-five team all season, but they haven't gotten a save. Linus Ullmark has the potential to play at a high level between the pipes, and Ottawa needs that kind of effort from him down the stretch.
In the case of the Red Wings, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider have emerged as superstars. Do they have enough help around them? How aggressive will GM Steve Yzerman be at the trade deadline? Detroit needs an upgrade at center.
Two Metro Division rivals, the Penguins and Capitals have been getting the most out of their respective rosters. Sidney Crosby (who will miss several weeks after getting injured in the Olympics) looks like he wants another run at the Cup with Pittsburgh, and Washington has gotten elite goaltending from Logan Thompson.
The Sabres look good in several different areas, especially with the way their blue line has come together, but their middling five-on-five numbers give me pause. Still, Buffalo should end its long playoff drought, and that's real progress.
Can't count them out
- Edmonton Oilers
- Florida Panthers
These two have met in the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons, and even though they haven't been perfect, they're still capable of going on a run. The Oilers have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, two superstars capable of willing the team to one playoff series win after another. Plus, it helps that Edmonton plays in a very weak division.
The Panthers have dealt with devastating injuries all season, and they've got a lot of work to do to reach the postseason, but captain Aleksander Barkov has started skating again. If Florida can get Barkov back into the lineup, that would be a huge boost, but it'll also need Sergei Bobrovsky to look more like himself.
Long shots
- Montreal Canadiens
- Washington Capitals
- Los Angeles Kings
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- New Jersey Devils
- Toronto Maple Leafs
It's impossible to totally rule any of these teams out of contention, but it's going to take a small miracle for them to lift the Stanley Cup. At least a few of these teams will reach the playoffs, but their rosters are clearly flawed.
The Canadiens and Blue Jackets lack quality center depth. They can make it work in the regular season -- especially Columbus, which is getting great goaltending from Jet Greaves. However, once the playoffs roll around, the lack of talent down the middle will be a fatal flaw.
Washington has gotten elite goaltending from Logan Thompson all season, but the team is below .500 in 2026. I'm not sure the Capitals have enough star power to make a playoff push and go on a Cup run if that push is successful.
Right before the Olympic break, the Kings took a big swing and added star forward Artemi Panarin in a trade with the Rangers. That would have put them in the dark horse category until Kevin Fiala suffered a season-ending injury in Milan. Now, Los Angeles is once again in need of more offense.
Can Jack Hughes use his heroic Olympic performance as a springboard for the home stretch of the NHL season? If he can, the Devils could make a real playoff push. The problem is that they have a lot of ground to make up.
The Maple Leafs have some ingredients to be a threat -- mainly star power up front with Auston Matthews and William Nylander. However, the blue line is older and has suffered key injuries throughout the season, and forward depth remains a real concern.
Not buying it
These teams occupy playoff spots as we resume NHL play, but there are serious red flags under the hood in each case and there's a chance none of them actually reach the postseason.
Per Natural Stat Trick, none of these teams has a five-on-five expected goals share above 46.5%. The Kraken generate expected goals at the lowest rate in the league, the Islanders surrender expected goals at the highest rate in the league and the Bruins aren't far behind them.
Try again next year
As fun as this tier of teams has been at times this season, none of them will be winning the Cup. In fact, there's a good chance none of them make the playoffs. Having said that, each team has shown signs of real progress that makes me think good things are on the way sooner rather than later.
That's especially true for the Sharks, who have a legitimate franchise superstar in Macklin Celebrini surrounded by more exciting young pieces. San Jose just needs to figure out how to improve its blue line in the offseason.
Philadelphia has been a scrappy team, and that will hurt its chances at getting a premium draft pick in June. Still, there is a lot to like about this squad, and it will have some salary cap flexibility.
The Blackhawks are still a bit of a project, but Connor Bedard is still only getting better, and Spencer Knight is the long-term answer in goal. How aggressive will GM Kyle Davidson be in adding impact players over the summer?
Try again in a few years
These five teams are in pretty bleak situations at the moment, and it may be a while before they truly ascend back to contender status. The Predators, Blues and Rangers still have some tearing down to do before they start the rebuilding process in earnest. All three teams have veteran players who could be appealing to playoff teams at the trade deadline.
The Jets are an interesting case because reports indicate they want to try to improve their top-six wingers at the deadline. That would be like fixing a leaky faucet on the Titanic as it plunges into the ocean. Winnipeg needs to rip the band-aid off and start selling. This core is older, and the Jets need an injection of youth.
In the case of the Flames and Canucks, their rosters are pretty barren as it is. They'll sell at the deadline, too, but some of their biggest pieces have already been shipped out. Now it's about using draft capital to acquire as much young talent as possible.
