Men's Olympic hockey predictions: Favorites as U.S. looks to dethrone Canada

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For the first time in 12 years, NHL players will compete at the Olympics, and that means fans are treated to some world-class hockey. The United States hunts its first gold medal since 1980, but Canada stands in the way, and plenty more teams in a deep field are capable of stealing spots on the podium.

The last time NHL players were at the Olympics was back in 2014 when Canada won its second consecutive gold medal. The U.S. went home empty-handed after losing to Finland in the bronze-medal game, and Sweden settled for silver after losing to Canada in the final.

Of course, a lot has changed in the last dozen years. Team USA's talent pool is deeper, and the Americans are well-equipped to avoid the same pitfalls that plagued them in prior overseas Olympics. Canada, Sweden and Finland will also be as loaded as ever, but Czechia, Switzerland and Germany are closing the gap.

Perhaps the biggest difference from past years is that teams won't have to contend with Russia, which could have fielded a dangerous roster. The International Olympic Committee has still banned Russians from competing in team sports due to the war in Ukraine. That means Alex Ovechkin and Nikita Kucherov will be watching from afar.

Even without Russia in the mix, the the return of the NHL means this Olympic tournament will be the most highly anticipated in some time, and we have a comprehensive preview to get you ready. We've broken the 12-team field into tiers based on gold medal odds, and we'll have medal picks and awards predictions at the end.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Favorites

Canada (+115)

To understand how loaded the Canadians are, just look at the center depth. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby and Brayden Point -- each a No. 1 center in his own right -- will serve as anchors down the middle. The wings don't lack in skill or depth either. Macklin Celebrini, Mitch Marner and Sam Reinhart bring scoring and playmaking. Players like Mark Stone and Tom Wilson bring defense and physicality.

Nick Suzuki, Seth Jarvis and reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Sam Bennett will be among those in jeopardy being left out of the lineup each game. That's how much firepower Canada is bringing to Italy.

Defensively, you could quibble with some of the decisions the Canadians made on the fringes. Taking Travis Sanheim and Drew Doughty over elite puck-movers like Evan Bouchard and Jakob Chychrun were interesting decisions, but the overall talent level is still through the roof. Cale Makar is the best defenseman in the world, and he's on pace to win his second consecutive Norris Trophy. Shea Theodore and Devon Toews are criminally underrated two-way players, and Josh Morrissey will bring plenty of offense from the blue line. Coach Jon Cooper faces tough decisions when it comes time to submit his lineup before each game.

Canada's most glaring issue -- and potential Achilles heel -- is goaltending. The man who delivered a 4 Nations championship one year ago, Jordan Binnington, has been one of the NHL's worst goalies in 2025-26. Darcy Kuemper has been above average for the Los Angeles Kings, and while Logan Thompson has been terrific for the Washington Capitals, he's never faced pressure like this before. All that said, if the Canadians just get average goaltending, they should be in the gold medal game.

United States (+175)

While questions simmer about Canada's goaltending situation, that's the biggest strength for the Americans. Connor Hellebuyck will go down as one of the best goaltenders ever, even if he's looked human behind a mediocre Winnipeg Jets team this season. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Hellebuyck saved 77.5 goals above average, per Natural StatTrick. The next closest goalie is Andrei Vasilevskiy at 52.2. Having Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman behind Hellebuyck is an embarrassment of riches.

There's a lot to like about the forward group for the Americans. Auston Matthews, Jake Guentzel, Matt Boldy and Tage Thompson (114 total goals in 2025-26) can bring goals in bunches. Dylan Larkin, Clayton Keller and Jack Hughes bring a combination of speed and playmaking. Last but certainly not least, the Tkachuk brothers and Jack Eichel provide great two-way play along with ill intentions on the forecheck.

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Having said that, if you can quibble with Canada's defensive decisions, you can outright argue with Team USA's forward decisions. Jason Robertson, Cole Caufield and Alex DeBrincat are all in the top eight in goals this season. None of them are on this roster. Instead, GM Bill Guerin went with "checking" players like Vincent Trocheck and J.T. Miller. We'll see if that decision comes back to bite the Americans.

The U.S. blue line will be even better than it was at the 4 Nations Face-Off, even with the subtraction of Adam Fox, because Quinn Hughes is healthy. He gives the Americans a superstar on the back end to accompany Zach Werenski, who leads Olympic defensemen in scoring with 62 points. Rising star Jake Sanderson can also generate offense from the blue line, and the trio of Charlie McAvoy, Jaccob Slavin and Brock Faber will serve as elite shutdown defenders.

Contenders

Sweden (+650)

If there's any team capable of spoiling the Canada vs. USA gold medal matchup that everyone in North America so desperately craves, it's Sweden. From top to bottom, it's hard to find many weaknesses on the Swedish roster. They may not have as much superstar talent as the Canadians or Americans, but the Swedes have a balanced squad.

William Nylander, Lucas Raymond, Jesper Bratt, Filip Forsberg and Adrian Kempe can light up the scoreboard from the wings, and the defense should be able to give opponents a headache. Rasmus Dahlin is a serious Norris Trophy contender, and the duo of Victor Hedman and Gustav Forsling are responsible for a combined four Stanley Cup victories in the state of Florida since 2020. Rasmus Andersson and Erik Karlsson give the Swedes some more offensive upside on the blue line.

Sweden will once again be relatively strong in goal. The Minnesota Wild tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt will hold down the fort. Those two have combined to save 23.2 goals above average, and Jacob Markstrom is a good veteran option in case of emergency.

Where the Swedes will be out-gunned is down the middle of the ice. Elias Pettersson, Elias Lindholm, Mika Zibanejad and Joel Eriksson Ek are all very good players, but that quartet doesn't really stack up the centers on the Canadian and American rosters. If Sweden is going to win gold, their wingers and defense will have to do most of the heavy lifting.

Finland (+1000)

There is one glaring omission from this lineup, and it's Aleksander Barkov, a back-to-back Selke Trophy winner and Stanley Cup champion. Barkov would have been this team's top center and the player the Finns threw out there to face the likes of Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. Instead, Barkov is hurt, and that responsibility will fall to Sebastian Aho and Roope Hintz.

While neither Aho nor Hintz are Barkov, it's a testament to Finland's depth that those two are backup options. Aho and Hintz are both strong two-way players who have received Selke Trophy votes throughout their careers. The question is more about which players will be flanking them. Mikko Rantanen is a true superstar on the wing, but there aren't many heavy hitters outside of that. Artturi Lehkonen is a great top-six option, and Eetu Luostarinen just played a huge role in helping the Florida Panthers win their second consecutive Cup, but someone will always be playing above their head.

If the Finns are going to go on a run, it's going to take a team defensive effort. That will start with Miro Heiskanen, who is capable of shutting down top competition. Niko Mikkola, Esa Lindell and Rasmus Ristolainen are big and rangy defensemen who should also help in that department, but Finland just doesn't have great depth on the blue line. Expect the top four to get plenty of ice time in Italy.

In net, the Finns are weaker than they thought they'd be just a few months ago. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been great for the Buffalo Sabres, but he is injured and has been replaced by Boston Bruins backup Joonas Korpisalo. That means Juuse Saros is the undisputed No. 1 option, but he hasn't been very sharp for the Nashville Predators, especially lately.

Dark horses

Czechia (+2500)

No team has more underdog potential than the Czechs, who have some star power at forward and the potential for a hot goaltender to emerge. David Pastrnak and Martin Necas combined for 44 goals and 88 assists this season, and Tomas Hertl chipped in 48 points for the Vegas Golden Knights. Unfortunately for the Czechs, they got some bad injury news as an ankle injury ruled out Bruins center Pavel Zacha. He would have played alongside Pastrnak, his teammate in Boston.

In net, Czechia has three options in Lukas Dostal, Karel Vejmelka and Dan Vladar. Dostal has shown the ability to play at a high level for the Anaheim Ducks, even if he's cooled off lately. Similarly, Vejmelka has had an up-and-down season with the Utah Mammoth, but he's still posted 6.48 goals saved above average, per Natural Stat Trick. Vladar has been a pleasant surprise for the Philadelphia Flyers.

Defense is where Czechia really lacks for elite talent. Radko Gudas and Filip Hronek are half of a decent top-four, but there are few good options outside of that duo. The Czechs don't have any other NHL players on the blue line, so they'll need to be opportunistic on offense while getting elite goaltending.

Switzerland (+2500)

Switzerland is an up-and-coming hockey power, and the country has been getting results at other international tournaments. The Swiss have won the silver medal in back-to-back IIHF World Championships, with the 2024 run including an upset of Canada in the semifinals. Switzerland also took home the silver medal in 2013 and 2018 World Championships. That said, the Olympics are a much bigger test, and the country hasn't medaled at that event since 1948.

This year's team has as much talent as any Swiss team throughout history. Nico Hischier, Kevin Fiala, Timo Meier and Roman Josi are all established stars. Nino Niederreiter, Pius Suter, J.J. Moser and Jonas Siegenthaler will serve as solid secondary players. At forward, the Swiss top-six should be able to be competitive at both ends of the ice. Defensively, Josi and Moser could form a dynamite workhorse pairing, if the team wanted to take that route.

As is the case with other teams in this tier, Switzerland lacks NHL-quality depth at forward and on defense. That's where the team has to hope that some of that recent World Championship experience will come in handy. In net, Switzerland will be forced to ride Akira Schmid, who's been just okay for the Vegas Golden Knights. Schmid must elevate his game if Switzerland is going to medal.

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Germany (+5000)

This is probably the most fascinating team in the field because there is legitimate superstar-level talent on this roster. Leon Draisaitl is a top-five player in the world, Tim Stutzle is on his way to becoming one of the NHL's best centers and Moritz Seider is having a Norris Trophy-caliber season with the Detroit Red Wings. That's a nice starting point for a German team looking to spoil the party.

In addition to Draisaitl and Stutzle, the Germans also have J.J. Peterka, who is capable of scoring 30 goals in the NHL. Nico Sturm adds defensive responsibility and penalty-killing chops, and Lukas Reichel is a former first-round pick who has plenty of skill but hasn't figured it out in the NHL. Between the pipes, Philipp Grubauer is having a resurgent campaign with the Seattle Kraken, saving 12.1 goals above average with a .854 high-danger save percentage, per Natural Stat Trick.

Those top players will have to carry the load and then some. Germany just doesn't have the defensive depth to stack up with the top contenders. It's a good thing Seider is used to playing more than 25 minutes per game in Detroit.

Nuisances

Slovakia (+6500)

It would be surprising if any teams from this tier won -- or even medaled -- but they could be a thorn in the side of the favorites. Slovakia certainly fits that bill with NHL talent littered throughout the roster. Montreal Canadiens star Juraj Slafkovsky is the headliner in this lineup, and Dalibor Dvorsky and Pavol Regenda are capable young players. The Slovakians really need Martin Pospisil to find his rookie form from 2024-24. Tomas Tatar provides experience, even if his NHL playing days are in the past.

The defense might be the strongest part of the Slovakians' roster with two-time Cup champion Erik Cernak, Martin Fehervary and Simon Nemec on the blue line. That trio should be able to withstand some of the barrage Slovakia faces from opponents, and that's a good thing because there are no NHL-caliber netminders on the team.

Denmark (+25000)

This is just the second time Denmark appeared in the Olympics with the first time being in 2022, when the team reached the quarterfinals. There is reason to believe Denmark could replicate that performance with some offensive skill in the form of Nikolaj Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand. The biggest wild card here is goalie Frederik Andersen, who's delivered a miserable year with the Carolina Hurricanes, but given some spectacular performances in the past.

Latvia (+50000)

The Latvians are in between this tier and the next, but the one thing that could make the Latvians a bit of a threat is goaltending. Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs are on the team, and while neither player is a star, it's plausible one of them could find a groove in the face of a big workload. That duo will have to be sharp because there are only three other NHL players on the rest of the roster.

The Latvians only advanced to the quarterfinals once in Olympic history, and they never medaled before. It would be a bit surprising to see that streak end in 2026.

Happy to be here

France (+80000)

Alexandre Texier is the only active NHL player on France's roster, and this is the country's first Olympic appearance since 2002. The French never advanced past the quarterfinals, and they have one combined win (over Switzerland) all-time against their three preliminary opponents.

Italy (+100000)

Italy automatically qualified because it's the host nation, and that was the case for its last Olympic appearance, which came in 2006 when the Winter Games were in Turin. The Italians, who don't have an NHL player on their roster, are a combined 0-8 all-time against their three preliminary opponents.

Medal predictions

Gold medal: Canada
Silver medal: United States
Bronze medal: Switzerland

Award predictions

MVP: Nathan MacKinnon, Canada

Olympic All-Star team: Nathan MacKinnon, Canada (F); Sidney Crosby, Canada (F); Leon Draisaitl, Germany (F); Cale Makar, Canada (D); Roman Josi, Switzerland (D); Connor Hellebuyck, USA (G)