MLB picks: Best bets for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers, Pirates vs. Mets and more on Opening Day

The 2026 MLB season begins in earnest on Thursday, March 26 with 11 games, headlined by the defending champions Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Two-time defending AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal will also be in action, getting the nod for the Detroit Tigers as they battle the San Diego Padres. And one of the biggest acquisitions from the offseason won't have to wait to debut for his new team with the New York Mets giving Freddy Peralta the ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will counter with reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes.

We'll take a look at the best MLB bets for Thursday's games with recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. It was a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks last season. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Those interested in wagering on Thursday's contests should take advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code when doing so.

Best MLB bets for Thursday, March 26

Pirates-Mets Over 6.5 runs

Despite two ace pitchers hitting the mound for this game, the SportsLine model has the Over on 6.5 runs hitting in 69.8% of simulations, good for an "A" grade play. Skenes went 10-10 last season despite a 1.97 ERA because the Pirates couldn't score runs, while the Mets were tied for ninth in runs scored. Peralta coming into the mix for New York should theoretically make this a low-scoring game, but the former Brewers ace struggled to close 2025. He allowed at least one run in each of his last seven starts, including three runs in each of his final two starts. The Pirates lineup shouldn't instill much fear in anyone but perhaps the Mets can get to Skenes early to help this game go Over the total.

Reds money line vs. Red Sox

Andrew Abbott (10-7, 2.87 ERA last season) takes the mound for Cincinnati in the home opener, while Boston counters with Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59 ERA). Abbott was 8-1 at one point last season but lost four of his five starts in August and went 2-2 across five September starts. However, the Red Sox played .500 baseball away from Fenway Park, while the Reds finished nine games above .500 in home games a season ago, so back them as underdogs in Thursday's game. The Reds are +132 on the money line (wager $100 to win $132) and win in 52% of simulations, which earns another "A" grade. 

Padres +1.5 vs. Tigers

Skubal's contract issues are unlikely to impact his performance, especially since he's going to be a free agent after the season. However, the Padres lineup is due for some positive regression after struggling at times last season. San Diego returns largely the same group, which was excellent in 2024 but declined slightly in 2025, so there's reason to believe some improvement will take place. Skubal is not the best matchup for the Padres to get going, especially at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The SportsLine Projection Model likes San Diego on the run line, as the Padres cover in 66% of simulations for a "B" grade.

Diamondbacks +1.5 vs. Dodgers

The defending champions will begin their quest for a three-peat by sending World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the bump Thursday, while the Diamondbacks roll with Zac Gallen. Arizona is a potential darkhorse pick to make the playoffs this season if its pitching can get going, as the team was eighth in home runs a year ago. Eugenio Suarez is gone, but Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo are all back to anchor what should be a potent lineup. The Dodgers have plenty of star power but have only gotten a one-game edge on the Diamondbacks in the season series in 2024 and 2025. Arizona covers the run line in 61% of SportsLine model simulations, getting an "A" grade.