The NFL season is really starting to take shape and it's somehow crazier than anyone could have imagined. The Browns and Giants are both in first place of their respective divisions, just like everyone expected before the year began. The Chargers and Rams are --*squints* -- in last place, just like everyone expected as well. It's a good reminder this league can go any which way at any moment, so never assume what you saw last week has any real bearing on what we might see in the future. That's what makes it so fun. Bet on the NFL at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass after spending $5+:
Speaking of fun, we had a scorching week in this column last week, going 6-2 including two longer shot touchdown scorers. Now we get an awesome slate with good environments (lots of domes and nice weather) and plenty of games with high totals.
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Best bets for NFL Week 7
Vikings -6.5 vs. Colts
This is a lot of points to 1) be laying with an offense that's been pretty anemic all season and 2) be giving a team that's in a "dead cat bounce" situation after their GM was fired in the wake of a humiliating loss to the Titans. But I really saw something with the Vikings offense two weeks ago against the Saints, and think they might be ready to start catching up to the defense performance-wise. The Colts defense isn't going to provide a ton of resistance towards Kyler Murray and Co. blossoming, the Vikings are getting Jordan Addison back. They should be healthy/refreshed off the bye and might be in line for an offensive breakout here. Oh and if not ... well the defense and Brian Flores insane-o blitzing should give Daniel Jones plenty of trouble.
Packers-Lions Over 53.5
Pretty monster total here -- easily the highest on the week -- but we're not shying away from points in this spot. Both of these teams are capable of making monster splash plays down the field and neither has the defense to stop the opposing pass games. The Lions are 5-0 to the Over so far this season and even if they get defensive reinforcements, I find it hard to believe things are going to get fixed overnight. The Packers are just 2-4 to the Over, but they're more than willing to get involved in a shootout if the other team is ripping off big plays like the Lions should be at home in this choice environment. Josh Jacobs back or not, I'd think we still get plenty of chunk plays in the passing game and it's possible his return only opens up the passing game more.
Dolphins +4.5 vs. Jets
It looks like there's a chance that a +5 pops up at some point here, so feel free to wait until Sunday for this one. And yes, we are taking the Dolphins! The winless, very stinky Dolphins. But these winless, stinky porpoises have been kind of frisky in the two weeks before their Week 6 bye, keeping it close against the Vikings and Bengals, both of whom are pretty good teams that are elite on one side of the ball. The Jets are not nearly as strong and maybe shouldn't be laying more than a field goal to anyone, even Miami. The Jets defense is more than willing to give up late scores, opening us up for a backdoor cover if they're not right in the mix for the entire game, which I think they will be.
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Week 7 NFL player props
Ja'Marr Chase Over 80.5 receiving yards
Certain players get UP for certain matchups and Chase against the Ravens is absolutely one of them. In 10 career games against Baltimore, Chase averages 7.5 catches and 120 receiving yards a game to go along with eight touchdowns in those contests. In short, he's a strong bet for a monster game here and with the Bengals coming off the bye, there should be zero health concerns and a game plan set up to feed Chase the ball. I would have zero issue laddering this up to 110 or so and playing his anytime touchdown as well.
Jaylen Warren Over 61.5 rush yards
Warren's been unbelievable the last month of the season, with the small-ish exception of last week when he was stymied on the ground against a really good Bucs run defense. Now, he gets an absolute run funnel in the Saints in the early international game, with New Orleans having given up monster games to virtually every primary back they've faced (with the exception of the Giants last week and their running back situation is a hot mess). This number is suppressed because of last week's outing and the return of Rico Dowdle, but I'm guessing in this spot we see Mike McCarthy continue to feed his "featured" guy in Warren. This number is several yards lower than the rest of the market.
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Anytime touchdown scorer props for Week 6
Jalen Coker (+170)
This game looks like a sneaky shootout to me despite the middling total, provided Baker Mayfield ends up returning to the field. Mayfield hasn't been great this year, but he's an upgrade in terms of how the Bucs offense will move up and down the field both in efficiency and pace. And the Bucs pass defense has been the same as always: a funnel. One of Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker is going to go off and find the end zone here and it could honestly be both of them given this matchup and the environment. But WR2's have shredded the Bucs all season so we're going to lean into that with Coker here.
Colby Parkinson (+225)
The Davante Adams injury opens up a bunch of targets, especially when it comes to red-zone targets. And while I'm really tempted to go with Konata Mumpfield here, I think we could definitely see Sean McVay lean into multiple tight-end sets to keep Matthew Stafford protected and run the football more effectively. This total is high, so we should see plenty of scoring and Parkinson is still a big-time red-zone threat, having scored the Rams go-ahead touchdown last week. His targets spiked last week with Adams getting injured and that should carry over in Vegas this week.
Drake London (+135)
This is a sneaky fun game with a really high total and two offenses who should be able to cook. The Falcons are live to win this game in my opinion, and if that's the case at all, they're going to need another Herculean effort from their top receiver. Alphas in the passing game have been good about finding the end zone against the Niners this year, despite their impressive effort from the defense as a whole. I like London to finally get off the touchdown schneid with a positive number this week.
