I have to say that I'm a bit melancholy today, as Friday marks the first true sign that summer is over for me -- the last Friday matinee of the MLB season for the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. They welcome the suddenly surging Pittsburgh Pirates for a 2:20 ET first pitch, and boy do a lot of edges point the North Siders' way. Not that I need a reason to back my Cubs (actually I do).
Bettors are following suit with north of 85% of the money and tickets on the Chicago money line, even at a fairly big number. There is also solid action on Over 8 runs with pretty neutral weather conditions. Bet $5+ on any of Friday's games and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Let me say this one last time in 2026 because it's my final opportunity: There are maybe no stronger advantages for any MLB team than the Cubs have when they were off Thursday, host one of these Friday matinees and the visiting team had to travel in late the night before. For competitive reasons, the league office tries to avoid schedudling these sorts of instances when possible, but it's essentially impossible to avoid altogether in a crammed 162-game slate.
The Pirates are in that spot today, with a major asterisk: They played at the White Sox last night, so they at least didn't have to get on a plane. But, hey, it can take a while to travel from the South Side to the North Side of Chicago, believe me. That's obviously a break for the Bucs but it's still a major disadvantage turning around and playing 14 hours later at a different ballpark. In addition, Pittsburgh closer Mason Montgomery and setup man Luke Weaver are surely unavailable today as each pitched the past two games. It's a major schematic hit for manager Don Kelly.
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Pirates vs. Cubs MLB same-game parlay
- Chicago to not bat bottom 9
- Alt Under 10.5
DraftKings SGP price: +128 (subject to change)
It's probably too little, too late for an NL wild-card chance this year for Pittsburgh, but it has won four straight to get over .500 for the first time since July 29 and is 4.5 games back of the final NL wild-card spot held by San Diego. Simply finishing above .500 would be a huge step forward for the franchise as it hasn't since 2018. The future looks quite bright with the likes of shortstop Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz, Paul Skenes and first-time All-Star Braxton Ashcraft, who was set to be Friday's starter.
Had Ashcraft not somewhat barely exceeded his rookie status last year (by 19.2 innings), he'd be the NL Rookie of the Year favorite at 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. But, yep, the Cubs caught another huge break in that Ashcraft was placed on the injured list Thursday with right arm discomfort. I hope that's nothing major.
Instead, it apparently will be a bullpen game started by 23-year-old rookie Wilber Dotel (1-4, 4.41 ERA), who has made 17 big-league appearances but not as a starter. His longest outing has been four innings, but that was early on and it has been mostly around two since. Dotel has befuddled the Cubs in two relief appearances spanning four innings at 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and five strikeouts. No doubt that's why he is getting this chance.
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Did you happen to throw down a few dollars on Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to win NL MVP at the nice price of +5000 this spring? I sure did and that's cashing because with Shohei Ohtani landing on the injured list Wednesday, the race for MVP is 100% finished. Most books have taken the market down.
PCA will become the first Cubs NL MVP since Kris Bryant, and gosh I sure hope that Crow-Armstrong has much better injury luck after than Bryant did. Now the only question for PCA is whether he becomes a member of the 40-40 club as he's four steals shy (has 41 HRs). For one steal today, he's priced +371.
Any shot the Cubs had of catching the Brewers in the NL Central, and there was never really much of one, ended in a three-game sweep in Milwaukee to open this week, and the team has lost four straight overall to fall behind Philadelphia for the top NL wild-card spot. That's the motivation the rest of the way -- to get that home wild card series.
Lefty Shota Imanaga (9-10, 3.91 ERA) takes the hill today, and you really never know what you'll get with him. Two starts ago, it was the bad as Imanaga was hammered for six runs, including three homers, in five innings against the Reds. Then last time out, he threw six dominant innings in a victory in Miami.
To say the pending free-agent Imanaga has been good against Pittsburgh this season is understating things: Zero runs allowed and just four hits with 13 strikeouts over 12.0 innings, although he got only the victory in one. The model projects him at 5.6 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs today. No Bucs batter has done much off him and none have homered.
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Kudos to the young Pirates if they come in and steal this. But it's grown-ups time today. I definitely prefer -135 for th e Cubs to not bat bottom 9 instead of around -195 on the Chicago money line with the back end of the Pittsburgh bullpen out. The model has the Cubs winning by nearly a full run. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
