2026 SEC win totals, odds, picks: Predictions for every team as Georgia, Texas aim for CFP berths

Can the SEC get back on track and end the Big Ten's run of three consecutive national championships?

It'll be a narrative that the conference will face all season. Last season the SEC put four teams into the College Football Playoff (Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M) but only one made a semifinal and none made it to the title game. 

Still, Las Vegas is bullish on multiple SEC teams based on the early win total odds. Teams like LSU, Texas and Georgia will all be popular title picks. CBS Sports' Brandon Marcello had nine SEC teams in his way-too-early top 25 for 2026. 

With that in mind, we went game-by-game in the SEC to make predictions on how each team will fare this season. All odds are via FanDuel. 

Alabama

Over/under: 8.5 wins

Wins: ECU, at Kentucky, FSU, South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, Auburn 

Losses: Georgia, Texas A&M, at LSU

Analysis: In a critical Year 3 for Kalen DeBoer, Alabama will turn to a new quarterback after Ty Simpson left for the NFL. Rather than shop for a transfer QB in a hot market, DeBoer will go with either Austin Mack or Keelon Russell. Who wins that job and how he fares will go a long way into deciding whether Alabama can meet its preseason expectations. Pick: Over (-122)

Arkansas

Over/under: 4.5 wins

Wins: North Alabama, Tulsa 

Losses: at Utah, Georgia, at Texas A&M, Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, at Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri, at Texas, LSU, 

Analysis: First-year head coach Ryan Silverfield walks into the most challenging situation in the SEC. The oddsmakers aren't expecting much in 2026, and it's hard to fault them when you look at the Razorbacks' brutal schedule. Maybe Arkansas can steal a SEC game or two, but it's hard to come up with enough combinations to want to bet the over. Pick: Under (-144)

Auburn

Over/under: 6.5 wins

Wins: Baylor, USM, Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Samford

Losses: at Tennessee, at Georgia, at Ole Miss, LSU, at Alabama

Analysis: New head coach Alex Golesh and quarterback Byrum Brown should bring some juice to a program that never met expectations under Hugh Freeze. There is enough talent on the roster for improvements in 2026, but the slate is challenging. Still, I like Auburn to get to seven wins and a bowl. Pick: Over (-118)

Florida

Over/under: 7.5 wins

Wins: FAU, Campbell, at Missouri, South Carolina, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt, at Florida State 

Losses: at Auburn, Ole Miss, at Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma

Analysis: There's not a lot of wiggle room here if you're looking to make a bet. Florida will have a new quarterback and a new coaching staff, but another tough schedule. It's hard to come up with eight surefire wins to feel comfortable going big on the Gators. Pick: Under (-142) 

Georgia

Over/under: 9.5 wins

Wins: Tennessee State, WKU, at Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, at Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Missouri, at South Carolina, Georgia Tech

Losses: at Ole Miss 

Analysis: The last time Kirby Smart won less than 10 games in a full season was back in 2016, his first year in Athens. With a pretty manageable conference slate in 2026, you should be bullish about the Bulldogs' chances of besting expectations. Even with this high number, I love the Bulldogs to surpass it. Pick: Over (-144)

Kentucky

Over/under: 4.5 wins

Wins: Youngstown State, South Alabama, Vanderbilt, at South Carolina

Losses: Alabama, at Texas A&M, LSU, at Oklahoma, at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri, Louisville 

Analysis: Before I looked at Kentucky's schedule, this felt like an easy over. But even with the improved roster, it's still going to be tough sledding for first-year head coach Will Stein. I'd recommend staying away from this one altogether, but if you have to bet, you'd get plus odds going under. Pick: Under (+118)

LSU

Over/under: 8.5 wins

Wins: Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, McNeese, at Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Auburn, Alabama, Texas, at Tennessee, at Arkansas, 

Losses: at Ole Miss, 

Analysis: No first-year coach will face more pressure to perform in 2026 than Lane Kiffin. But even with a challenging slate, I like Lane and Co. to deliver in a big way. LSU stockpiled talent this offseason, headlined by Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt and Colorado offensive tackle Jordan Seaton. There are a few toss up type games that could swing the season but the Tigers should be playoff contenders. Pick: Over (-150)

 Mississippi State

Over/under: 4.5 wins

Wins: ULM, at Minnesota, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Tennessee Tech 

Losses: at South Carolina, Alabama, at LSU, at Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn, at Ole Miss 

Analysis: An early road trip to Minnesota could determine what you want to do with this number. The Bulldogs were improved in 2025 and should take another leap forward in 2026, even if it doesn't show up in the win-loss record. Pick: Over (-115)

Missouri

Over/under: 6.5 wins

Wins: UAPB, at Kansas, Troy, at Arkansas, Kentucky 

Losses: at Mississippi State, Florida, Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, Texas, at Georgia, Oklahoma 

Analysis: The Tigers have been wildly successful under Eli Drinkwitz the last three seasons, totaling 29 wins. But Missouri could be one of the big losers of the new 9-game conference schedule when you look at their 2026 opponents. Look for the Tigers to take a step back this season. Pick: Under (+116)

Oklahoma

Over/under: 7.5 wins 

Wins: UTEP, New Mexico, Kentucky, at Mississippi State, South Carolina, at Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, at Missouri 

Losses: at Michigan, at Georgia, Texas

Analysis: I could see the Sooners being a popular regression pick after making the CFP in 2025, even though the offense should be better this season. And all it would take is losing to Ole Miss and Texas A&M, two teams the Sooners will likely be underdogs against, from the above predictions and they'd finish 7-5. Still, this Oklahoma team feels too talented to win less than eight. Pick: Over (-105)

Ole Miss

Over/under: 7.5 wins

Wins: Louisville, Charlotte, LSU, at Florida, at Vanderbilt, Missouri, Auburn, Georgia, Wofford, Mississippi State 

Losses: at Texas, at Oklahoma 

Analysis: Other than Georgia, Ole Miss is the team I'm most bullish about beating its over/under odds. Assuming Trinidad Chambliss is back starting, this Ole Miss team should again be a playoff contender. Yes, the schedule is challenging. And, yes, there are always questions about a first-time head coach, though Pete Golding fared well in playoff wins over Tulane and Georgia. Eight wins should be the baseline of expectations for this team. Pick: Over (-150)

South Carolina

Over/under: 6.5 wins

Wins: Kent State, Towson, Mississippi State, Tennessee, at Arkansas 

Losses: at Alabama, at Florida, at Oklahoma, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, at Clemson 

Analysis: The Gamecocks failed to meet expectations in 2025 after an impressive 2024 season where they just missed the playoff cut. There are two big reasons to be excited about South Carolina getting back on track -- QB LaNorris Sellers and edge-rusher Dylan Stewart (if healthy) -- but the schedule again doesn't leave much margin for error. Pick: Under (-144)

Tennessee

Over/under: 7.5 wins

Wins: Furman, at Georgia Tech, Kennesaw State, Auburn, at Arkansas, at Kentucky, at Vanderbilt 

Losses: Texas, Alabama, at South Carolina, at Texas A&M, LSU

Analysis: With Joey Aguilar's bid for another season denied, Josh Heupel will turn to either redshirt freshman George MacIntyre or true freshman Faizon Brandon this season. It's one of the reasons why it's understandable to be a bit less optimistic about Tennessee's prospects, even if it is an important year for Heupel. This is another stay away for me. Pick: Under (-124)

Texas

Over/under: 9.5 wins

Wins: Texas State, UTSA, at Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at Missouri, Arkansas, at Texas A&M

Losses: Ohio State, at LSU 

Analysis: It is title-or-bust for Steve Sarkisian this season in Austin. Last year, the Longhorns underachieved and missed the playoff. With Arch Manning coming back and all the talent acquired on what is one of the nation's most expensive rosters, the Longhorns need to make a run in 2026. The schedule is again very challenging and it wouldn't be a shock if Texas finished 9-3, but I like the Longhorns at 10+ wins. Pick: Over (+110)

Texas A&M

Over/under: 8.5 wins

Wins: Missouri State, Arizona State, Kentucky, Arkansas, at Missouri, Citadel, at Alabama, at South Carolina, Tennessee

Losses: at LSU, at Oklahoma, Texas

Analysis: The Aggies lose a lot from their 2025 playoff team, including 13 players who earned NFL Combine invites and offensive coordinator Collin Klein, leading to some interesting questions ahead of this season. Can an offensive line that could feature four transfers as starters hold up for Marcel Reed? If you want a reason to believe, head coach Mike Elko and general manager Derek Miller have proven they know what they are doing with roster management and talent evaluation. Pick: Over (-115)

Vanderbilt

Over/under: 6.5 wins

Wins: Austin Peay, Delaware, NC State, Arkansas, 

Losses: at Auburn, at Georgia, Ole Miss, at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, Alabama, at Florida, Tennessee 

Analysis: Diego Pavia was magical for the Commodores but it is fair to expect the program to take a step back without him in 2026. The above win-loss prediction will likely skew too pessimistic when it's all said and done – before I went game-by-game I assumed I'd have Vanderbilt in the six-win range – but it's hard to find seven wins to want to take the over. Pick: Under (-170)