ACC's hopes of landing an at-large College Football Playoff bid already dimmed after rough start to season

Week 0 revealed the early cracks in the ACC's foundation as Florida State, the conference's only preseason top-10 team, fell against Georgia Tech. Later that day, SMU needed a huge fourth quarter to outlast Nevada, a lower-tier Mountain West team that entered as nearly a four-touchdown underdog on its home field.

It was a small sample size, but it left a sour taste.

Week 1 did nothing to cleanse the palate. The ACC isn't just cracked. It's already cratering, and it's not even September.

Even with Miami's impressive win over Florida, the ACC's odds of being a multi-bid league in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff already look like a longshot, thanks in large part to Florida State's early stumble, Clemson's ineptitude and the conference's other early blunders. The Tigers were the conference's second preseason top-15 team along with FSU, but they flunked the eye test in a 34-3 loss to Georgia.

A loss to the Bulldogs was expected. A loss at Vanderbilt was not. 

But that's what happened to the ACC when Virginia Tech fell 34-27 in overtime to the Commodores after entering as a 13.5-point favorite. The Hokies, expected to be a dark-horse contender in the ACC, couldn't handle the sterility of the under-construction home for the SEC's projected last-place team.

It was just six seasons ago that Clemson thrashed Alabama 44-16 for its second national title in three years. It was the ACC's third title in six years, although problems were mounting with legacy programs Florida State Miami and Virginia Tech all struggling. 

But so long as Clemson was operating at an elite level, the conference still commanded a modicum of respect. Now, even the mighty Tigers have fallen below the standard they set in the 2010s as coach Dabo Swinney has refused to adapt to the times.

His stubbornness isn't to blame for the league's demise -- the ACC's unraveling would have come much sooner without Swinney's presence in the league -- but it's not helping. Miami looked like it could play the role of standard-bearer on Saturday, but that's based on one game against against a Florida team will struggle to reach a bowl.

Thank goodness for the wayward left foot of Minnesota kicker Dragon Kesich. If not for his pulled last-second boot on Thursday night, North Carolina would also be in the ACC's early-season victim category. As it stands, the Tar Heels' uninspiring 19-17 win over the Gophers is arguably the league's top moment after the Cam Ward highlight reel from Miami's thrashing of the Gators.

There's an idea floating around, even suggested by Swinney, that the ACC needs its own version of SEC megaphone Paul Finebaum to tout the conference's merits. But even the most ardent ACC carnival barker wouldn't be able to sell the product the conference has trotted out early this season.

The next two weeks offer a chance at some half-baked measure of redemption. On Friday night, SMU hosts BYU of the Big 12, and Duke travels to Northwestern of the Big Ten. But moving the needle at all would likely require Cal winning at Auburn or NC State taking down Tennessee in Charlotte.

In Week 3, a Boston College win at Missouri or a Wake Forest win vs. Ole Miss would do wonders for the league. But both ACC teams will be significant underdogs tasked with slowing down elite offenses.

Based on what we've seen so far, is anyone out there rushing to the window to place moneyline bets on the ACC teams in any of those games?

The expanded playoff guarantees a spot for the five highest-ranked conference champions and first-round byes for the top four. But it doesn't guarantee anything more than that.

Some fear the Big Ten and the SEC will command the overwhelming majority of the playoff's seven at-large bids. Based on what we've seen so far, that fear is justified. What playoff merit do we expect a second team from the ACC possibly to have?

Is it possible that Clemson and Florida State could bounce back from their 0-1 starts to win 10 games? Sure. But those victories will come against lackluster league competition and do little to create the type of resumes that the selection committee will deem playoff-worthy.

The league's best shot at getting two teams into the CFP may be to have a bid thief emerge. It's time-honored term in college basketball that will enter the college football lexicon this year. Essentially, Miami would have to be so dominant for the rest of the season that it emerges as an at-large lock for the CFP.  

Then, the Hurricanes would have to lose in the league title game and thus relinquish the automatic bid to the winner of the conference championship game while still getting in as an at-large team themselves.

Against the backdrop of this inauspicious beginning to the 2024 season is the reality that Clemson and Florida State are attempting to bully their way out of the conference. It's not hard to see why.

But if those programs can't stand head-and-shoulders above the faltering competition in their current conference, what do they think would happen if they were to somehow gain entry into the SEC or Big Ten?

The prestige and paycheck associated with membership in one of those conferences would be nice. But SEC foe Georgia has defeated those two teams by a combined score of 97-6 over its last two games. That's not a perception problem or a marketing issue. That happened on the field. 

Even a supercharged, ACC version of Finebaum would struggle to dress up the bleak reality facing the ACC early in what was supposed to be a season of hope.