Notre Dame has beaten Navy in 82 of their 96 meetings going back to 1927. It has won the last six games by an average of 23.5 points. It reflects college football Darwinian theory that the strongest survive. Usually, the Fighting Irish have been the swiftest and biggest along with the strongest.
Those familiar service academy limitations applied. The Midshipmen are going to school to be officers. That's not to disparage Notre Dame, but, c'mon, you don't have to be told ND is one of the biggest football factories in the country.
That's why No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy is the College Football Playoff elimination game you never expected. It's Week 9 and the Middies -- along with Army -- are undefeated.
We already told you about the implications in the AAC. One of them is a College Football Playoff berth, and either Army or Navy would likely have to go undefeated for it to happen. Notre Dame (6-1), meanwhile, can't afford another loss after being defeated by Northern Illinois in an early season stunner.
These teams actually match up fairly evenly for the first time in a while. Navy relies on three players offensively. Quarterback Blake Horvath is one of two FBS players with at least 10 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns. Running back Eli Heidenreich is the team's leading pass catcher. 200-pound fullback Alex Tecza averages 6.2 yards per carry.
Navy also does something that almost can't be quantified. It is second nationally in turnover margin (+12). Size begins to matter less if you can pry the ball loose. Notre Dame's stout offense live outweighs Navy defensive line by 25 pounds per man.
The Irish have righted themselves after the NIU loss. The season-opening win over Texas A&M is significant with the Aggies leading the SEC at the moment. Quarterback Riley Leonard has settled in as the run-pass threat he showed during his time at Duke.
The most intriguing part of this game might be its location. The teams haven't met on the MetLife Stadium neutral field since 2010. It might be the best football game the field will see this season considering how poorly the Giants and Jets are playing this season.
Notre Dame plays its only other ranked opponent this season on Nov. 23. Navy is already assured of playing Army, at least once, on Dec. 14.
Week 9 storylines
Look who's in the SEC race: Now that No. 15 Alabama is down and everyone in the SEC has at least one loss before Halloween for the first time in 17 years, No. 8 LSU vs. No. 14 Texas A&M becomes one of the biggest games of the year. First, it's a battle between the only two unbeaten teams in conference play. It's not exactly an elimination game for the conference and CFP race, but as Yogi Berra used to say -- it's getting late early. Separated by 430 miles of highway, the LSU-Texas A&M rivalry is baked into the soil. Throw out the state line. The two schools recruit the same grounds. John David Crow, the pride of Springhill, Louisiana, won the 1957 Heisman Trophy at A&M. The Aggies got a commit from the No. 1 prospect in Louisiana last September -- defensive lineman Dominick McKinley -- only to see him flip to LSU on Dec. 31. Now we find out more about LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who leads the SEC with 18 touchdown passes.
Didn't you used to be FSU-Miami? For the first three years after the ACC expanded, the conference showcased the Florida State-Miami game in primetime on Labor Day night. Trust me -- it was a big deal. Both teams were ranked within the top 15 all three years. Then, well, both programs fell upon times that were less than worthy of Labor Day.
Something tells me Cam Ward will be able to sit late in the third quarter of this latest meeting which figures to be a speed bump for the No. 6 Hurricanes, who still have the meat of their schedule left. After FSU, there is Duke, Georgia Tech and Syracuse with Wake squeezed in on Nov. 23. There is still the prospect Miami could go 12-0 without playing a ranked team.
Remembering Zooker: No. 20 Illinois can further climb into the Big Ten race by winning at No. 1 Oregon. Check that, Illinois can also make a mess of the Big Ten race with a win at Eugene.
No one expected Illinois to be here. It has gotten to this place with a physical team built in the image of Bret Bielema. If he can drag the Ducks into a rock fight, the Illini actually have a chance.
The last time Illinois had this kind of magic was under one Ron Zook (remember him?) in 2007. The Zooker led Illinois to a 9-4 Rose Bowl season, and key to that run was perhaps the biggest upset in program history -- a 28-21 win over then-No. 1 Ohio State in Columbus. That's the last time the Illini came close to the Buckeyes.
So, there's a connection there. Where is Zooker? Still in the Big Ten as special teams quality coach at Maryland.
Pitt Problem: You don't want to be there when Pittsburgh's Pat Narduzzi finds out his quarterback Eli Holstein might be the most desired potential quarterback transfer in the offseason. The Alabama transfer has been one of the biggest surprises of 2024 with 15 touchdown passes for the undefeated Panthers, who host Syracuse on Thursday night. Part of the apparent criticism of fired athletic director Heather Lyke is that she didn't fully embrace NIL. A program like Pittsburgh has no choice for a prospect who has three years of eligibility left.
Blind Draw: It's never too early to project to Dec. 8 and the possible traffic jam for CFP spots on Selection Sunday.
Who you got for one spot among these four teams under the potential scenarios?
- 11-1 Power Four team that hasn't played either of the teams that played for the conference championship and might have to be the third team in the CFP from that league. Played two teams currently ranked, went 1-1 against those. Schedule strength: 84th.
- 9-3 Power Four team that's beaten No. 1, No. 5, No. 7. Lost to current No. 21 on the road in overtime. Also lost to Group of Five team currently leading its division. Schedule strength: 55th.
- 10-2 Power Four team that has not beaten a currently ranked team and lost conference opener by 30 on the road. Lost on the road to current No. 15. Schedule strength: 88th.
- 9-3 Power Four team that's beaten a No. 1 team. Lost first game to a conference opponent that it hadn't been defeated by in 40 years. Also lost on the road to current No. 7 and No. 8. Schedule strength: No. 1.
- 12-1 Group of Five team. This actually applies to two schools. Both would have gone undefeated in the same conference. Both would have beated No. 12 out of conference. One would have to lose the conference championship game. Schedule strength: 116th and 130, respectively.
Now, let's have a look at the identities of these teams with their current odds to make the CFP field via FanDuel Sportsbook ...
- SMU (+250): The Mustangs don't play Clemson or Miami in the regular season, so they would probably be a second or third ACC team in the field. At 11-1 would have lost to BYU but beaten Pittsburgh. This week: at Duke.
- Vanderbilt (+6000): A real sticky one if the Commodores beat three top-10 teams (Alabama, Texas, Tennessee) but lose three overall. One of those losses would be to the Sun Belt's Georgia Southern. This week: vs. Texas.
- Missouri (+400): The Tigers' best hope is that they're among a few 10-2 teams in the SEC, because right now it looks like there are going to be a lot. Even then, Vanderbilt would probably go in ahead of the Tigers (see above). Mizzou's playoff chances essentially hang on a trip to Alabama this week. Unless the Tigers go 11-1, it's going to hurt. This week: at Alabama
- Alabama (-115): The Crimson Tide are a bit of a mess. They've beaten No. 1 (at the time) Georgia but also lost to Vandy. They probably can't afford another loss but still have to play at LSU. Not many folks are talking playoff for 'Bama right now. This week: at Vanderbilt
- Army (+1000) or Navy (+1700): Both service academies have Notre Dame left on the schedule. That would be both schools' best win. They're each one of 10 undefeated teams left, but one is assured of losing if they both reach the AAC Championship Game. Army has the No. 130 schedule strength; Navy owns 116th. This week: Notre Dame vs. Navy (MetLife Stadium), Army (bye).
The Big haircut: The coaching carousel began in earnest this week with head coaches at East Carolina (Mike Houston) and Southern Miss (Will Hall) being shown the door. Seth Littrell and Andy Ludwig were fired this week as offensive coordinators at Oklahoma (Litrell) and Ludwig (Utah).
In both of those situations, those accomplished coaches were victims of their own programs' bad planning. It wasn't exactly Littrell's fault that both Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins Jr. weren't ready to lead the Sooners as starting quarterback. Maybe there wasn't a way Dillon Gabriel was going to stay with the NIL machine Oregon has become. And it's obviously better program right now.
But there had to be a plan. Arnold offered promise until he was a no-show against Tennessee. OU (at Ole Miss this week) most likely has to go into the transfer portal next season to find its quarterback. Littrell had a 44-44 record as head coach at North Texas.
Ludwig is one of the most well-traveled assistants in the country having been an OC for nine Division I teams since 1997. But his firing can be tied directly to Cam Rising's health. With him, the Utes (at Houston) are a Big 12 contender. Without him, they are 4-3 tied for 11th in the league.
Three-meets: The first CFP rankings are released in 12 days, so it's never too early to add to our ongoing list of things we never thought of in the debut of the 12-team field.
Eight weeks in, there is still the possibility of these matchups being played three times this season.
- Texas vs. Georgia.
- Alabama vs. Georgia.
- Tennessee vs. Georgia.
- LSU vs. Texas A&M
- Texas vs. Texas A&M
- Ohio State vs. Oregon
Your moment of college football zen: Legendary former Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer waited 13 years to be inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame. It took him less than three months to enter the SEC Legends class. Using the SEC's logic, the league also just inherited 11 national championships under its banner. Texas has won four combined titles in the Southwest Conference and Big Eight. Oklahoma won seven in the Big Seven, Big Eight and Big 12.
Ridiculous.