I can't wait for conference play to start in earnest. This week, we have three games between ranked teams and they are all conference games. No. 6 Tennessee is at No. 15 Oklahoma, 11th-ranked USC visits the Big House and No. 18 Michigan and Big 12 favorite No. 12 Utah travels to 14th-ranked Oklahoma State.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Since just about everybody is technically a CFP candidate at the moment. So for the first few weeks of the season at least, I'll go with the current top 12 teams in the AP Top 25 poll. With the expanded playoff this season, I'll go deeper into the rankings once we get a few games under our belts.
Games against FCS opponents are not considered.
I am still recovering from the trauma of Purdue's 66-7 loss to Notre Dame, but there are no excuses. Picks are to be made and here are my favorites.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Week 4 picks
UCLA at No. 16 LSU (-24.5): The DeShaun Foster era is off to a rough start at UCLA. The Bruins are 1-1, but that win came on a game-ending field goal at Hawaii. Last week, Indiana ruined UCLA's home opener with a 42-13 win. No, that wasn't basketball. The Bruins now make their second of six long road trips this season to LSU. The Tigers have not been setting the world on fire, but they may not be able to help themselves. Pick: LSU -24.5
Charlotte at Indiana (-28.5): Indiana has not exactly been putting up basketball scores – oh, wait – the Hoosiers put up 77 on Western Illinois. They won't need to score that many in this one, but Indiana's defense is good enough that the Hoosiers will have to do most of the work themselves to get this number. The 49ers have given up 31 ppg to teams not nearly as explosive as Indiana. I also like the 28.5-point spread if that is more your cup of tea. Pick: Over 48.5
Toledo (-2.5) at Western Kentucky: Toledo may not have a win at Notre Dame like fellow MAC member Northern Illinois, but the Rockets have been pretty good nonetheless. Last Saturday, Toledo went into SEC country and beat Mississippi State 41-17. That came just a week after the Bulldogs lost at undefeated Arizona State by only three. Western Kentucky won at Middle Tennessee last week, which isn't bad, but is not like playing the Rockets. Pick: Toledo -2.5
Upset of the Week
Michigan State at Boston College (-6.5): Michigan State is off to a 3-0 start which includes a win at Maryland two weeks ago. Oregon State transfer QB Aiden Chiles has done well since a rocky start against Florida Atlantic. The Spartans have been able to run the ball to take the pressure off of the young QB. Boston College was the first team to win at Florida State this season and was pretty competitive at Mizzou last week. I think this game is more of a toss-up than this line indicates and I like the Spartans to win. Pick: Michigan State
Other CFP candidates
- UL Monroe at No. 1 Texas Pick: Over 53.5
- Marshall at No. 3 Ohio State Pick: Ohio State -39.5
- Georgia Southern at No. 5 Ole Miss Pick: Ole Miss -35.5
- No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma Pick: Oklahoma +7
- Vanderbilt at No. 7 Missouri Pick: Missouri -21
- No. 8 Miami at South Florida Pick: Miami -16.5
- Kent State at No. 10 Penn State Pick: PSU -48.5
- No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan Pick: USC -5.5
- No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State Pick: Utah -2.5
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $2,000 in profit since its inception -- and find out.
