No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Texas are one win away from locking up the top two seeds in the College Football Playoff after the release of the penultimate CFP Rankings on Tuesday. SMU projects as the 3-seed ACC champion, while Boise State is also closing in on a first-round bye after ranking No. 10 in this week's release. The Broncos are five spots clear of any Big 12 team and only need to beat No. 20 UNLV to complete a bye.
Projected Big 12 champion Arizona State sits at No. 15 in the rankings and the 12-seed in the bracket as the Sun Devils are projected to face a tough road trip to meet 5-seed Penn State in the first round. The other projected home sites are 6-seed Notre Dame, 7-seed Georgia and 8-seed Ohio State. The Fighting Irish are ineligible for a first-round bye despite ranking No. 4 because they cannot win a conference championship.
Down the board, Alabama is projected to make the 12-team College Football Playoff field after ranking No. 11 in the CFP Rankings. The Crimson Tide narrowly eked out a spot while contending against No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 14 South Carolina for the bid. The winner of the Big 12 title game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State will likely hold the 12-seed.
Here is a look at how the College Football Playoff bracket looks after the penultimate CFP Rankings release.
Alabama is in, for now
The most consequential race in the penultimate rankings was for the No. 11 spot between Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina. Between the five auto-bids and six likely at-large teams, only one free spot was available for the glut. In a shocking move (not), Alabama moved ahead of an ACC team with fewer losses and is now projected in the field.
That said, Alabama's standing remains tenuous depending on the outcome of the ACC Championship Game. Based on SMU's No. 8 ranking, the Mustangs are likely a lock to make the field as a conference champ or at-large. If No. 17 Clemson upsets SMU in the title game, they will likely enter the field as a bid thief. Tide fans should be rooting hard for SMU to take care of business.
For all intents and purposes, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Miami are now eliminated from the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State favored for home field
After losing a stunner to a putrid Michigan team in Week 14, Ohio State fell four spots down the rankings to No. 6 and the 8-seed. The Buckeyes failed to even reach the Big Ten Championship Game for the fourth straight season and are now ineligible for a bye. Thanks to wins over top 10 Indiana and Penn State, though, the Buckeyes are still in great position to host a CFP game at Ohio Stadium.
The Buckeyes are projected to host 9-seed Tennesse, and it's unlikely that the program is pushed off their spot. None of the other projected at-large teams behind them are playing in a conference championship game and shouldn't be able to rise. Ryan Day will get some new life, but will now have to play four CFP games to reach the national championship. It's a tough path.
Plenty up for grabs
The expanded CFP is about to set up perhaps the craziest conference championship weekend in history. The Big 12 and Mountain West both have play-in games, where the winner is heading to the College Football Playoff and the loser is out. While No. 8 SMU should be in the field regardless, No. 17 Clemson is playing for their lives.
Even in the Big Ten and SEC, though, fortunes can change in an instant. A win for No. 3 Penn State or No. 5 Georgia could push them into the byes and force Oregon or Texas to play in the first round. Clemson could also shake up the field and potentially knock Alabama out and get the Big 12 champ into the bye range. Everything is on the table.