Week 4 of the 2023 college football season brings one of the most anticipated slates in recent memory with six games between top-25 teams on Saturday -- the most on a single day in 17 years. Contests here will factor heavily into conference and playoff races down the line.
No. 4 Florida State carries the lofty ranking against Clemson, but also a seven-game losing streak in the series. For the Seminoles to take control of the ACC race, they will need to prove it here. No. 15 Ole Miss is looking to upset No. 13 Alabama and shift the tides in the SEC West. No. 23 Tennessee will be tested by proven underdog as it looks to bounce-back from a rough skid.
With so many high profile games, there is a ton of value to be found for the discerning bettor. In last week's value plays column, we went 4-1. The lone miss? Iowa came 1.5 points short of hitting the over by itself against Western Michigan, and the Broncos did just enough to push the final score past the 42.5-point margin. Who could've seen that coming? Here's to hoping the Hawkeyes, who make another appearance in this week's picks, don't let us down again.
| Week 3 | Season |
|---|---|
4-1 | 4-1 |
As anticipation builds towards a huge Saturday, here are five value plays that bettors should know about for college football's fourth week.
Odds via SportsLine consensus | All times Eastern
Wisconsin vs. Purdue
When: Friday, 7 p.m. | Where: Ross-Ade Stadium -- West Lafayette, Indiana
Not only does the under provide slightly more value than the over, but it seems like the obvious choice. Purdue isn't scoring as much as it used to, and Jeff Brohm isn't walking through that door anymore. The Boilermakers averaged 22 ppg against Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Wisconsin has scored at least 30 points in two games, but that went down to 22 in a loss to Washington State, easily the best team its faced. Take those performances into account, and a final score between Wisconsin and Purdue that falls well short of 53 points feels like the right lean. Prediction: Under 53.5 (-109)
No. 4 Florida State vs. Clemson
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. | Where: Memorial Stadium -- Clemson, South Carolina
The Tigers are at home and winners of seven straight against the Seminoles, who enter this game off of a pedestrian escape at Boston College. Except this Clemson lost by three touchdowns to Duke. Oddsmakers may have already forgotten about that, but I haven't. Florida State's defense is closer to Duke's than Charleston Southern or FAU. How much confidence does anyone have in Clemson's offense? That'll dictate your pick. The Seminoles have the weapons to go up against a Clemson secondary that might be missing its star in Andrew Mukuba. Prediction: Florida State -2.5 (-109)
No. 15 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 Alabama
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. | Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium -- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
On paper, Ole Miss is a nightmare matchup for Alabama. Offensively, the Rebels have everything in place to challenge what has been a weak Crimson Tide pass defense. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has 852 yards passing and seven touchdowns to just one interception. Jordan Watkins, Dayton Wade and Tre Harris make up one of the best wide receiver trios Alabama will see all year. On defense, Ole Miss is tied for third in the SEC with 10 sacks. Alabama's offensive line allowed five sacks against South Florida last week, which contributed to poor quarterback play. Everything is in place for Ole Miss to get its first win against Nick Saban since 2015, and bettors should feel confident laying down on an inflated Rebels money line that could yield big results. Prediction: Ole Miss ML (+218)
UTSA vs. No. 23 Tennessee
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. | Where: Neyland Stadium -- Knoxville, Tennessee
This would be a much easier call if UTSA quarterback Frank Harris was healthy. There's a chance he plays, although it's hard to get a solid timeline on turf toe injuries. Even if he can't go, the Roadrunners should be able to cover a pretty inflated line. His replacement, Eddie Lee Marburger, just threw for 239 yards and three touchdowns against Army. Plus, this Tennessee team might just be bad. The Vols beat FCS Austin Peay by a paltry 17 points and got boat raced by Florida. UTSA isn't exactly the team to try to get right against; it's 31-12 under coach Jeff Traylor. Tennessee should win, but it won't be by three touchdowns. Prediction: UTSA +21 (-109)
No. 24 Iowa vs. No. 7 Penn State
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. | Where: Beaver Stadium -- State College, Pennsylvania
Fifteen points is a pretty crooked line for a game like this. Penn State will be fired up. It's the annual "White Out" game, and the Nittany Lions have something to prove after losing their last two games against Iowa. The Hawkeyes are going to drag this one into the mud, though. Penn State struggled to move the ball against one Big Ten West team in Illinois, and only scored 30 points because Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer tossed four interceptions. Quarterback Drew Allar completed less than 50% of his passes for just over 200 yards passing.
Iowa's secondary presents a bigger challenge and should limit Penn State's ability to generate chunk plays. On offense, the Hawkeyes -- who are missing a ton of talent -- are going to play ball control and avoid mistakes, especially in such a hostile environment. Iowa won't win, but it has factors working in its favor to cover the number. Prediction: Iowa +15 (-110)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 4, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $2,500 in profit over the past seven-plus seasons -- and find out.
