2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Frank Stampfl's Breakouts 1.0 Feature Favorites Ben Rice and Kyle Bradish
These 10 players are expected to take the next step this season
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16 min read
Sleepers and Breakouts mean different things to different people. As I wrote up in Sleepers 1.0, I view sleepers more as undervalued players based on ADP. They're the players who should provide an easy profit in drafts. Breakouts are like sleepers, except better. I believe breakouts have the ability to take a big step forward, provide excess value, and maybe even be league winners.
That's the case with the 10 names below. You'll notice some of them were also breakouts for my colleagues, Scott White and Chris Towers. Well, we podcast together all the time, so there is a little bit of hive mind that goes on between us three. But also, we look at a lot of the same data points, so that's why we land on similar names. Nonetheless, I'm very excited about the players listed below, with two bonus ones at the bottom for those who play in deeper leagues.
Just a heads up that I used NFBC ADP for the month of January (so far).
Make sure to check out all of our Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts:
- Sleepers 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
Every year, there are a few players that the entire Fantasy community falls in love with. Well, meet Ben Rice, aka the 'Cheat Code'. Rice showed up last spring with improved bat speed, posting big exit velocities in Grapefruit League action. He earned an opportunity with Giancarlo Stanton hurt (no surprise there), and Rice performed admirably. He actually did so well that he forced Aaron Boone to find ways to get his bat in the lineup. Rice wound up hitting .255 with 26 homers and an .836 OPS. He got even better as the season went along. Over the final two months, Rice hit .298 with a .918 OPS. Under the hood, it's even better. Rice has tremendous plate discipline to go along with top-of-the-charts quality of contact (see below).
As you can see, Rice ranked 92nd percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. While he hit .255 and slugged .499, Statcast says Rice deserved a .283 batting average with a .557 slugging percentage. It makes sense when you consider how hard he hits the ball and the way he optimizes his swing at Yankee Stadium. Rice's pulled air rate was 25 percent, which is chef's kiss for a left-handed slugger in the Bronx. On top of all of this data, Rice is a cheat code for Fantasy this season. He has catcher eligibility even though he's expected to be the Yankees' full-time first baseman. This gives him a huge advantage over many other catchers in Fantasy. While Cal Raleigh and Salvador Perez will get a bunch of plate appearances from DH, most catchers' playing time is limited due to the high demand for the position. So, you can play Rice at catcher (where you should play him) even though he's an everyday player at first base. BOOM, cheat code.
The last question you have to ask yourself is, 'How much am I willing to sacrifice for love?' I love what we saw from Rice last season, but I do not love his price tag. Rice's NFBC ADP in January is 47.2 with a minimum pick of 26. It will be interesting to see what his ADP looks like in CBS drafts because, if it remains that high, I'm not sure I'll be the one drafting him. If it all comes together like we think, Rice could hit .280-plus with 35-plus homers this season.
Clearly, I'm not going out on a limb calling last year's top prospect a breakout in 2026. But you do have to pay a big price tag in early drafts, and that might make some queasy. I'm here to tell you why it shouldn't. Anthony made his debut on June 9 last season, and over his first 15 games, he did not produce much at all. During that span, he hit just .114 with one homer and a .518 OPS. And then it clicked. From June 27 on, Anthony hit .329 with seven homers, 43 runs scored, and three steals over 56 games. His season ended on September 2 due to an oblique strain, but he made his mark. Let me put this in perspective for you. From June 27 to September 2, Anthony was one of the best hitters in baseball. During that span, he ranked 11th in OPS (.931), 11th in wRC+ (158), first in hard-hit rate (64 percent), and third in average exit velocity (94.9 MPH).
As a Yankee fan myself, it got to the point where I was more scared of Anthony than any other hitter in the Red Sox lineup. Oh, and he did all of that as a 21-year-old. I will admit that he comes with questions. Anthony struck out too much overall and hit too many ground balls. While his 28 percent strikeout rate was high, I believe that was him being too passive. His 10.7 percent swinging strike rate is actually better than league average, and tells me his strikeout rate can improve. Yes, a 51 percent ground ball rate is high, but even with that, Anthony posted a 15.5 percent barrel rate. That tells me he can lift the ball and do damage when he gets the right pitch, very similar to how Juan Soto and James Wood produce their power. Overall, I'm just a believer that Anthony will take a big step forward this season, given his prospect pedigree and what he showed in that two-month window. I'm fine drafting him regardless of format, but will admit his skillset plays better in H2H points leagues given his strong eye at the plate.
Kyle Bradish might be the pitcher version of Ben Rice. Most of the Fantasy community seems to be excited about Bradish. The only difference is that his ADP isn't out of control… yet. Bradish has been really good for a while now. Back in 2023, he posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 30 starts thanks to his wicked breaking balls. Bradish had high expectations in 2024 but suffered a sprained UCL early in spring training. He returned in May and looked great. It turned out he didn't feel great. Bradish needed Tommy John surgery, which he had in June of 2024. He made his return in August of last year and did not miss a beat. While he only made six starts, he had eight or more strikeouts in four of those. Bradish posted a 14.6 percent swinging strike rate over that final month, which ranked fifth behind only Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease and Hunter Greene.
The problem with Bradish's return is that it's a small sample size. Let's add on a little more. If we combine Bradish's 2024 and 2025, we get 14 total starts. In those starts, Bradish posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 100 strikeouts over 71.1 innings pitched. That's a 34.6 percent strikeout rate and 12.6 K/9. For reference, both of those marks would have ranked first among qualified starting pitchers last season. It reminds me of when Tarik Skubal returned from injury back in 2023. Skubal was awesome, but he only did it over 15 starts, so we didn't know whether or not to fully buy in for 2024. That year, his ADP was 51.4. He's gone on to win two Cy Young awards since. I'm not saying Bradish will become as good as Skubal. What I am saying is that I think we should trust Bradish's sample of 14 starts over the past two years. It says that Bradish is really good and I believe it! You'll likely have to draft Bradish as your SP2 or SP3, but when it's all said and done, you'll get closer to SP1 production.
Looks like that "Homer Frank" is back at it again. To be fair, I am far from the only person who likes Cam Schlittler this season. Schlittler is right in the center of this youth movement we have at starting pitcher. There are a bunch of first and second-year pitchers who are loaded with potential entering the 2026 season. Schlittler was pressed into duty by the Yankees on July 9, and he was solid for his first handful of starts. You could see the potential was there with a fastball that averaged 98 MPH and generated whiffs at an above-average rate. He took off, and over his final nine starts, Schlittler posted a 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 60 strikeouts over 48.1 innings pitched.
That carried over into the postseason, where he etched his name in Yankees postseason history. In a win-or-go-home game against the Red Sox, Schlittler tossed eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts to zero walks. His four-seam and sinker were disgusting in that start, generating 16 of his 18 swinging strikes. What makes Schlittler so interesting is that he's a throwback type of pitcher. He throws his four-seam fastball over 50 percent of the time. Typically, I wouldn't want that from a starting pitcher, but his fastball is just so filthy. Here it is. 98 MPH. Can you hit it? Most can't. I think there's hope for his breaking balls, too. At Triple-A, Schlittler's sweeper posted a 32 percent whiff rate, and his curveball posted a 44 percent mark. The area of his game that needs to improve most is the control. I'm not sure it will ever be a plus based on his track record, and that will hurt his WHIP. Even so, I believe he'll be able to keep runs off the board and provide over a strikeout per inning. At his size, I expect Schlittler to handle a big workload this season, too. Target him as your SP3 or SP4 on draft day with the upside to provide much more than that.
Trey Yesavage is another pitcher at the center of that youth movement I was talking about. There are so many of them! Take your pick. What Yesavage did last season was exactly that… savage. One might call him the cream of the crop. Consider this: Yesavage's season started at the Blue Jays' Single-A affiliate in Dunedin. He pitched four levels of the minors, made it to the Bigs, and then delivered some of the most historic postseason starts in Major League history. It is a meteoric rise when you consider where his season started and where it ended. Yesavage pitched in nine games after getting called up in September (postseason included). In those starts, he produced a 3.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 12 K/9.
Those historic postseason starts I referenced? 5.1 no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees in the ALDS. Then, in the World Series, Yesavage threw seven innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts to zero walks… against the Dodgers of all teams! He generated 23 swinging strikes on 104 pitches, which is ace-level stuff. Yesavage is a unique pitcher. He throws directly over the top with a 64-degree arm angle, yet his fastball gets a ton of ride. He also has two awesome secondary pitches with his splitter and slider. His splitter is already one of the best in baseball, earning 80 grades by some prospect publications. Yesavage's slider is unique, too, as it has arm-side run from the right-hand side. It almost moves like a screwball. His slider was actually his go-to pitch against the Dodgers in that World Series start, generating 14 of those 23 swinging strikes. Like Schlittler, Yesavage needs to work on his control. It was a problem at nearly every level last year. Even with that, I believe in all three of his pitches, plus he's on one of the best teams in baseball. The cherry on top is that Yesavage's ADP seems way too low, as he's going 60 picks after Nolan McLean. If that remains, he's a steal at that price.
I know what you're thinking. Really? Again with this guy? You would have said the same thing about Byron Buxton last offseason! There is no doubt that Royce Lewis has been a disappointment to this point in his career. Once upon a time, he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Lewis has not been able to stay healthy, and over the past two years, he hasn't performed well even when he has been on the field. I get it. But something clicked for him down the stretch, and he showed us he still has some juice. Over Lewis' final 34 games, he hit .258 with seven homers, 23 RBI, and 11 steals (full-season pace: 33 homers, 52 steals). The steals were especially surprising. He didn't attempt a single theft in 2024 over the course of 82 games.
Lewis' last two seasons were ravaged by injury, but let's not forget what he did when he played back in 2023. It was only 58 games, but he hit .309 with 15 homers, six steals, and a .921 OPS. It was so impressive that Lewis was a Top-50 pick in Fantasy Baseball drafts the following season. His draft cost has dropped quite a bit, deservedly so. People have been burned by Lewis, and they do not forget. His ADP this January is all the way down to 183. I typically like to avoid injury risks, but at the point, the risk is worth the reward. Like his new manager Derek Shelton said, "this guy has a chance to be a superstar". I agree. I also think it's huge for Lewis' confidence after the way his career has started. I realize that the most likely outcome is that Lewis will miss time, but what if he can somehow get up to 125 games like Buxton did last year? If so, I believe Lewis can provide 20-plus homers with double-digit steals at a thin third base position. Draft him as your corner infielder or a bench bat with upside if he can stay healthy. Big if.
I will admit that MacKenzie Gore falls under a similar category as Royce Lewis. 'Been there. Tried that.' We've been duped by Gore multiple times already. In the first half of last season, Gore posted a 3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 22.7 percent K-BB rate. In the second half, he crashed and burned to a 6.75 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and just a 7.9 percent K-BB rate. Gore got off to a great start in 2024, too, before he hit that dreaded midseason snag. We know he has the stuff. Each of his five pitches had above-average whiff rates last season, four of which had whiff rates over 35 percent! Is there a way to get Gore to that final form? I think it just happened last week… the Texas Rangers.
We've been begging for a change of scenery with Gore. While he did some nice things with the Washington Nationals, that team has consistently lagged behind others in terms of pitching development. Enter the Rangers, who did some nice things with Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Leiter, and even Jacob Latz last season. The most obvious answer seems to be less fastballs, more secondary pitches. Gore throws his fastball around 50 percent of the time, and while it gets whiffs, it also gets hit really hard. His curveball, slider, changeup, and cutter eachproduced xwOBAs below .300 last season with whiff rates over 35 percent. On top of that, Globe Life Field is a great venue to pitch in. Over the past three years, GLF is tied for the second-lowest offensive park factor, behind only T-Mobile Park. Maybe Gore just is who he is; loads of strikeouts but bad control, which causes wild inconsistencies. But maybe, just maybe, there's an ace in there that the Rangers can tap into. I lean that way, and am totally fine using a pick around 200, even a little higher, to find out.
I'm going to be very blunt with you. I believe Sal Stewart has everything you look for in a hitter. He makes a lot of contact, has a good eye at the plate, and hits the ball really hard. Throughout his minor-league career, Stewart kept his strikeout rate below 18 percent at every single level. In his 38 games at Triple-A last season, he hit every pitch type, too. I mentioned Stewart has a good eye at the plate. Throughout his minor-league career, he posted a 13.4 percent walk rate with a .390 on-base percentage. And his quality of contact? Elite! At Triple-A, Stewart posted a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity, which ranked in the 93rd percentile. Once he got up to the majors, he put up a 95.4 MPH average exit velocity. To put that in perspective, that's the same exit velocity as Aaron Judge.
Let's talk a little more about his time in the majors. It was only 18 games, but Stewart hit .255 with five homers and an .839 OPS. Statcast put his expected numbers at a .289 batting average and a .626 slugging percentage. He hit the ball hard and pulled it in the air, which is exactly what we want. Now, take everything we've talked about so far and put that in Great American Ballpark. Chef's kiss. The only question we have for Fantasy is playing time. We don't know exactly where Stewart is going to play. He's spent most of his time in the minors at third base while also playing first and second. The Reds recently made a trade that sent Gavin Lux to the Rays, which removed one player from the logjam. The way things are set right now, it seems like Stewart should get every day at-bats at DH while mixing in at first base. It's not ideal to stick a 22-year-old at DH, but honestly, all we care about for Fantasy is that he plays consistently. Target Stewart, a corner infielder with upside to hit for batting average, power, and chip in a few steals this season.
Lastly, I have a deep-league double dip at starting pitcher. Two names that have popped for me are Braxton Ashcraft and Chad Patrick. Ashcraft got called up by the Pirates last season and was used in multiple roles. What stood out was how well he did as a starter. In eight starts, Ashcraft pitched to a 2.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 35 strikeouts over 33.1 innings pitched. He mostly uses four pitches, two types of fastballs, and two breaking pitches. Both his slider and curveball had whiff rates over 32 percent, while both his four-seam and sinker had whiff rates over 19 percent. And then Ashcraft does a good job getting ground balls and keeping the ball in the yard. I know his numbers were rough in the minors last season, but they were really good the two years prior. I also think the Pirates were alright trading away somebody like Mike Burrows because they have confidence in Ashcraft. He's also a SPARP for those who play in H2H points leagues!
Chad Patrick quietly performed really well with the Brewers last season. As a rookie, he posted a 3.53 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with over a strikeout per inning. I want to talk about what happened after Patrick returned from the minors in August. Over his final eight games (five starts), he posted a 31 percent strikeout rate with 11.5 K/9. During this span, he introduced a slurve. Patrick didn't throw it much, but when he did, it generated a .251 xwOBA and a 36 percent whiff rate. It's an interesting addition to an arsenal that mainly features three different types of fastballs. Look, the Brewers were always going to trade Freddy Peralta because he's entering his contract year, and they just don't pay pitchers, but I think having somebody like Patrick makes that easier to do. Plus, the Brewers just routinely get the most out of their pitchers. As is, I think Patrick is interesting as a late-round stab. With this new slurve he introduced in August, he could be even more than that.
