Nick Pivetta, Yusei Kikuchi, Royce Lewis, and Tarik Skubal weren't carrying much hype this time last season, but all of them ended up playing a big part in determining Fantasy championships in the 2023 season. There were a lot of wasted late-round picks, but if you hit on someone who can become an actual difference maker with one of your final few picks, you can really get a leg up on the competition, and that's what we're looking for here.
Starting with players with an ADP lower than 350 (and often much lower), we're looking for the best deep sleepers for every American League team. Be sure to check out the best deep sleepers on the NL to see who might become an impact player as the season progresses.
Orioles: Cole Irvin, P -- ADP: 703.64
Three weeks ago, I wouldn't have even considered Irvin for this exercise. But the Orioles suddenly have room for him in the rotation, and Irvin came out in his spring debut throwing harder than he ever has before – literally, his 95.9 mph fastball in that start was the hardest pitch he's ever thrown. Irvin worked at Tread Athletics this offseason to develop the new velocity, and he already had a 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 2022 in Oakland. Keep an eye on him this spring.
Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock, P -- ADP: 494.99
Whitlock hasn't been able to establish himself as a starter at the MLB level, but he's shown plenty of upside in a swing role, sporting a 3.51 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate over 223.1 innings. He's fighting for a rotation spot this spring, and I still think there's some upside here.
White Sox: Erick Fedde, P -- ADP: 481.96
Here's another tip of the cap to Scott White, who had Fedde in his initial Sleepers 1.0 list. Fedde is a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect who pitched in Korea last year and totally reinvented himself, winning the KBO's equivalent of both Cy Young and MVP with a 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts in 180.1 innings. He reworked his mechanics and added a sweeper and changeup that helped him to a massive 70% groundball rate. Here's another one who should be drafted in most 12-team leagues.
Guardians: Estevan Florial, OF -- ADP: 688.7
We're a long way removed from Florial's real prospect days, but he's remained productive in Triple-A, hitting .265/.358/.490 with 56 homers and 77 steals in 280 games overall, including a 25-25 season in 101 games last season. There might be too much swing-and-miss here to do that at the MLB level, but it looks like he might win the center field job for the Guardians and that power-speed combo makes him worth a look in deeper leagues.
Tigers: Casey Mize, P -- ADP: 550.58
Even before Tommy John surgery and then back surgery cost him basically all of the past two seasons, Mize never quite lived up to the lofty expectations of a No. 1 overall pick. But his velocity was up more than 2 mph on all of his pitches in his spring debut Tuesday, a great sign given everything he's gone through. It's a late-round lottery ticket on a once elite prospect.
Astros: Bryan Abreu, P -- ADP: 370.52
There's a relatively limited ceiling on Abreu's value, because he probably needs injuries to both Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly to get a chance for saves. But he also has a 1.84 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 188 strikeouts over the past two seasons, and is just a useful pitcher to have around in any category-based format.
Royals: Hunter Renfroe, OF -- ADP: 461.51
If he can just get back to his 2021 and 2022 levels, Renfroe's appeal is obvious – he had 60 homers across those two seasons with less than 600 PA in either. Renfroe can be one of the cheapest sources of power available in basically every league.
Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B -- ADP: 532.26
Schanuel's a weird player. He's a first-round pick who made the majors just months after being drafted, but he's a first-base-only prospect with questionable power upside. But he has one superpower – he gets on base. He walked 106 in 110 games between college, the minors, and the majors last season, including a .402 OBP with the Angels. He's slated to hit second for them and could be a really nice source of runs if nothing else – but he's probably already a solid starter in an OBP league, too.
Twins: Brooks Lee, SS -- ADP: 671.12
The Twins are giving Lee a chance to play some second base this spring, with perhaps a chance to crack the Opening Day roster. They probably want to see more from him at Triple-A after he hit just .237 there, but Lee is a top-60 prospect who has already reached the upper minors, so if he shows his reworked right-handed swing he could force their hand sooner rather than later.
Yankees: DJ LeMahieu, 1B, 3B -- ADP: 443.52
We're a long way removed from LeMahieu's MVP candidate days, and it's probably asking too much for a bounceback at 35. On the other hand, the Yankees are pretty insistent that he's going to hit leadoff ahead of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, and if there's any bounceback in his batting average skills, LeMahieu could probably still score 100 runs pretty easily in front of those two guys.
Athletics: Joe Boyle, P -- ADP: 532.48
In 84 innings in the Reds organization last season, Boyle walked 19.4% of opposing batters, which is just a totally untenable number no matter how good your stuff is. In 49.1 innings with the A's after a trade, he walked 11.8%, including just five in 16 innings in an MLB cameo. The stuff is incredible – Baseball America says he has a 70-grade on his fastball and slider – and if he can just keep the walks to normal, bad levels, Boyle might actually have some pretty impressive upside.
Mariners: Mitch Haniger, OF -- ADP: 523.12
It's just been a rotten couple of seasons for Haniger since his 39-homer, 100-RBI campaign in 2021. But he still had solid enough quality of contact metrics last season – 91.0 mph average exit velocity, 10.9% barrel rate – to think there's some juice left in this bat. Hopefully a return to Seattle helps his chances.
Rays: Jonathan Aranda, UT -- ADP: 635.36
He hasn't been able to keep it up in his chances in the majors, but Aranda has put up massive numbers in the minors, hitting .328/.421/.565 at Triple-A. Getting everyday at-bats is tougher in Tampa than just about any other spot in the league, but I'd still like to see Aranda get one more opportunity to translate his minor-league dominance.
Rangers: Jack Leiter, P -- ADP: 729.74
Leiter has fallen a long way since being the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, sporting a 5.37 ERA across two seasons. But his velocity was up about 1.5 mph in his spring debut from his lone Triple-A start last season, so hopefully that's a sign that he's starting to rediscover some of that college form. The Rangers definitely have a need in the rotation, and there's clearly still a talented pitcher in here if he can rediscover it.
Blue Jays: Yariel Rodriguez, P -- ADP: 621.68
The Blue Jays are going to give Rodriguez a chance to start after signing him to a four-year deal, and it's a very intriguing profile. Rodriguez worked mostly as a reliever in Japan, but put up a 3.03 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in a league where strikeouts are a lot more rare than they are in MLB. Rodriguez is a darkhorse as a start or as a potential late-inning reliever, and it wouldn't be a shock if he ended up in the mix for saves if something happened to Jordan Romano.
