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It's true: Alex Reyes may be just a few days away from making his major-league debut.
It's also true he was the top pitcher in my midseason prospects rankings, which excluded players who had already appeared in the majors. With 100-mph heat and a power curveball, he's one of the most prolific strikeout pitchers in all the minors, having fanned 12.9 batters per nine innings in his 12 starts for Triple-A Memphis.
But I'm thinking he's not worth the trouble in single-season mixed leagues. Short of him no-hitting the Marlins Saturday -- and perhaps even in that scenario -- he'll be one-and-done, sent packing to Memphis the very next day.
It's not like he'd be replacing anybody, after all. The Cardinals just need an extra starter to space out their usual five after using two in Tuesday's doubleheader. And while most teams have at least one placeholder they can jettison for a surging prospect, who would be the odd man out of this starting rotation? Michael Wacha is too great of an asset to ostracize like that, and Jaime Garcia's only real problem is he doesn't pitch deep enough into games.
Chances are Reyes wouldn't be much of an upgrade anyway. For all of his bat-missing at Triple-A, he has only a 5.07 ERA, and while it's true the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League likely has something to do with that, his 4.4 walks per nine innings show he's still a work in progress. He's not ready for this, and frankly, the Cardinals aren't ready for him.
What would be the point of stashing him, then? Yes, an injury could open the door, but the Cardinals could pull one of Tyler Lyons and Jerome Williams out of the bullpen in that scenario. In fact, neither has been ruled out for Saturday's start just yet, so Reyes' early exit from Tuesday's Triple-A outing may ultimately be much ado about nothing.
He's still a huge prospect but one you can feel pretty confident won't make a relevant Fantasy contribution this year, which is why he's not one of my ...
Five on the verge
(These are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)
Yulieski Gurriel, 3B, Astros
2015 Cuba: .500 BA (174 AB), 15 HR, 1.463 OPS, 38 BB, 3 K
Still working to get that work visa, but apparently Gurriel is close enough that a mid-August debut is a realistic possibility. Alex Bregman has indeed beaten him to the majors, but the Astros say they're comfortable shifting the 22-year-old to left field, where Colby Rasmus has been on autopilot for the last three months. So Gurriel has a clear path to the majors and a logical route to stardom, bringing with him the best numbers we've seen from a Cuban hitter since Jose Abreu. The biggest issue is how quickly he can get his 32-year-old body in gear after so much time off.
Jose De Leon, SP, Dodgers
2015 stats: 6-7, 2.99 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 114 1/3 IP, 37 BB, 163 K
2016 stats: 3-1, 3.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 44 2/3 IP, 16 BB, 65 K
Bud Norris was great last time out, and Brandon McCarthy looks like he's here to stay. But the injury-plagued Dodgers will eventually need a fifth starter for their rotation -- Aug. 5 looks like the date -- and Julio Urias, with his innings concerns, wouldn't be the most logical choice. They could recycle someone like Ross Stripling, Mike Bolsinger, Brock Stewart or Carlos Frias, or they could go with an actual prospect -- one who needs to make up some innings after missing time with injuries. De Leon didn't help his chances with a shellacking last time out, but he has dominated for the most part.
Jose Berrios, SP, Twins
2016 majors: 1-1, 10.20 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 15 IP, 12 BB, 20 K
2016 minors: 10-4, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 97 1/3 IP, 33 BB, 103 K
Sounds like the Twins aren't going to trade Ervin Santana after all, thinking he can be part of a turnaround effort next year, but it's not like they have an impenetrable staff of aces. Berrios could easily overtake one of Tommy Milone (4.97 ERA), Ricky Nolasco (5.40) or Tyler Duffey (5.71), particularly if he continues to dominate like he has over the last month with a 1.03 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in six starts, three of them eight innings or more. Oh, and he's still 60 innings away from last year's total, so no workload concerns here.
Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox
2015 stats: .313 BA (198 AB), 11 HR, 10 SB, .972 OPS, 35 BB, 24 K
2016 stats: .303 BA (356 AB), 7 HR, 15 SB, .878 OPS, 37 BB, 39 K
The Benintendi buzz has gone quiet since Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski suggested the 22-year-old might be the answer to the team's left field need, but Benintendi's bat hasn't. He's hitting .290 (20 for 69) with a .908 OPS so far in July, still demonstrating excellent plate discipline with nine walks to eight strikeouts. He hasn't shown us the full extent of his potential in his first professional season, most notably lagging as a power hitter, but his polish gives him a chance to make an immediate contribution at a thin position.
Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres
2015 stats: .272 BA (511 AB), 20 HR, .783 OPS, 37 BB, 132 K
2016 stats: .328 BA (403 AB), 25 HR, .954 OPS, 16 BB, 83 K
General manager A.J. Preller did his darndest to defuse any Renfroe speculation in the aftermath of the Melvin Upton trade, saying the Padres would probably wait until September to call up the former first-round pick. Preller didn't speak in definite terms, but with pseudo-prospect Alex Dickerson homering in four straight games, you can understand the Padres dragging their feet on this one. It's still frustrating, though, because here we have a 24-year-old of actual pedigree making a mockery of Triple-A at a position of need, and the Padres won't even let him fill the opening they created. Soon enough, I guess.
Five on the periphery
(These are some other prospects doing something of note.)
Gleyber Torres, SS, Yankees
2015 stats: .287 BA (487 AB), 3 HR, 22 SB, .722 OPS, 44 BB, 115 K
2016 stats: .271 BA (361 AB), 9 HR, 19 SB, .781 OPS, 42 BB, 87 K
What's so great about what the Yankees got for Aroldis Chapman? Well, Torres is the main prize. The 19-year-old is still a ways from the majors but looks like he might follow in the footsteps of Xander Bogaerts and Corey Seager as a big-bat shortstop. That's not to say he's bad defensively, but we don't care so much about that in Fantasy. If you're the kind who judges prospects solely on their numbers, note that he's batting .300 with seven homers and 17 steals in his last 70 games.
Hunter Dozier, 3B, Royals
2015 stats: .213 BA (475 AB), 12 HR, .631 OPS, 45 BB, 151 K
2016 stats: .307 BA (362 AB), 21 HR, .935 OPS, 39 BB, 97 K
The Royals turned their second base opening over to the higher-profile-but-less-established Raul Mondesi Monday, but maybe if they trusted Cheslor Cuthbert to slide over to that position, Dozier would be in the majors instead. He certainly has the better numbers of the two and, at age 24, is closer to being a finished product. Finding a position for him remains a challenge, though.
Travis Demeritte, SS, Braves
2015 stats: .232 BA (190 AB), 5 HR, 10 SB, .716 OPS, 27 BB, 80 K
2016 stats: .272 BA (331 AB), 25 HR, 13 SB, .935 OPS, 41 BB, 125 K
Demeritte isn't actually a shortstop anymore, having spent most of this season at second base, but one thing he certainly appears to be is a slugger. The California League (high Class A) has no doubt boosted his numbers this year, but he also hit 25 home runs in the lower levels two years ago, albeit with a much lower batting average. That the Rangers gave him up Wednesday for what amounts to roster filler (Lucas Harrell and Dario Alvarez) suggests they're not confident his strikeout issues are correctable, but he belongs on the prospect radar regardless.
Yadier Alvarez, SP, Dodgers
2016 stats: 2-1, 2.17 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 29 IP, 11 BB, 46 K
The prize of last year's international free agent class, Alvarez has spent most of his time refining his stuff on the back fields, so most of what we know about him (usually having to do with his fastball, which is usually pushing triple digits) is rumor. But now that we have some data to back it up, it's fair to say the hype is warranted. The 20-year-old had a few starts to get his feet wet in Rookie ball before blowing the doors off at low Class A, where he has struck out 20 of 35 batters faced.
Mitch Haniger, OF, Diamondbacks
2015 stats: .310 BA (355 AB), 13 HR, 12 SB, .883 OPS, 33 BB, 71 K
2016 stats: .338 BA (364 AB), 24 HR, 9 SB, 1.048 OPS, 51 BB, 80 K
Once considered a decent prospect in the Brewers organization, Haniger has seen his stock tumble over the last few years, which is why he's still toiling at Triple-A at age 25. Then again, "toiling" may not be the best way to describe it. He seems to have figured out how to maximize his power, homering nine times in his last 11 games, without sacrificing his plus plate discipline.
"I changed my mechanics a lot this winter," he told MLB.com. "I opened up my power to all fields and I'm generating bat speed deeper in the zone. I've also been able to stay in the zone longer and, so far, I've been really happy with how things are going."
The Diamondbacks have had a hard enough time working Pete O'Brien into their lineup, but I'm not so sure this isn't the better player in the long run.