coby-mayo.jpg

The most buzzed-about prospect in the minors right now has a name that sounds like a variety of condiment.

But Coby Mayo isn't something to put on your truffle fries. He's someone who puts the ball in the bleachers, like this:

Twenty-one times now Mayo has gone deep for some Orioles affiliate or another (mostly Triple-A Norfolk), and that's even with him missing a month with a fractured rib. His numbers look like something out of another era, like something any major-league lineup could use but particularly one that's fighting for a division lead and has an obvious infield opening.

The Orioles are already the highest-scoring team in baseball with a lineup built on homegrown talent like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle, and yet they're still trotting one of Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias out there every day to give them an automatic out at the bottom of the lineup.

It's clear they're still missing one ingredient. It's time to add Mayo.

FIVE ON THE VERGE

(Here are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)

Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

2023 minors: .290 BA (504 AB), 29 HR, 45 2B, .973 OPS, 93 BB, 148 K
2024 minors: .308 BA (253 AB), 21 HR, 18 2B, 1.037 OPS, 32 BB, 72 K

Have there been actual developments on the Mayo front over the past week? I would say no while also noting that he's 7 for 33 (.212) in his past nine games. But we're beyond the point where production has any bearing on his promotion and have arrived at a point where few flaws are to be found in said production. There was a time earlier this year when one could plausibly argue that Mayo's strikeout rate was prohibitive, but it's only 17.3 percent in his 18 games back at Triple-A following a fractured rib. And besides, GM Mike Elias has already telegraphed that a move is coming.

"He's at the level of talent and experience where you start figuring out ways to work him in," Elias said of Mayo on a broadcast for Triple-A Norfolk last week, "because I do think he's ready, very close to ready, for a major-league challenge."

So why hasn't it happened yet? There could be some defensive concerns, or it could simply be that with the All-Star break approaching, an immediate call-up won't allow for a seamless transition. But suffice it to say that a hitter with 90th percentile exit velocity readings and a swing that's optimized for power could have a significant Fantasy impact in a lineup as deep as the Orioles'.

Max Meyer, SP, Marlins

2024 minors: 4.89 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 49 2/3 IP, 20 BB, 56 K
2024 majors: 2.12 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 17 IP, 3 BB, 14 K

I pointed out last week that Meyer seemed to be transitioning from development mode back into competitive mode, bringing his slider usage back in line with where it was in the majors after trying out a different pitch mix during his 2 1/2 months in the minors. He took another step down that path Tuesday, going six innings in what was by far his longest start for Triple-A Jacksonville. His previous high of 4 2/3 innings came the outing before.

The Marlins have yet to confirm he's on his way back, but they've said all along that he would eventually come back. I'm going to suggest that actions speak louder than words in this case and predict that we'll see Meyer rejoin the Marlins rotation for the start of the second half, when he should have no trouble replacing one of Yonny Chirinos, Bryan Hoeing and Roddery Munoz.

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

2023 minors: .333 BA (99 AB), 1 HR, 11 2B, .866 OPS, 6 BB, 11 K
2024 minors: .461 BA (167 AB), 7 HR, 24 2B, 1.225 OPS, 10 BB, 13 K

It's hard to come up with an appropriate comp for what Wilson is doing right now. Since adding him to my Five on the Verge a week ago, he's gone 6 for 14 (.429) and somehow lowered his batting average in the process. It's why the 22-year-old, despite being drafted just last year and playing in an organization with no postseason ambitions, seems almost certain to get the call soon. If "forcing the issue" means anything, it's batting 80 points higher than every other minor-leaguer (with at least 150 at-bats, anyway).

Granted, he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, whether you're talking average (86.8 mph) or maximum (106.1 mph) exit velocity, but I'll note that both measurements are higher than Brooks Lee delivered at Triple-A. Perhaps, then, we should give Wilson the same benefit of the doubt. After all, he was an even higher draft pick last year (sixth overall) than Lee was two years ago (eighth overall). And like Lee, his actual power production has been better than advertised, particularly when you account for the doubles. His slugging percentage is skewed by the outlier batting average, of course, but his .270 ISO, which removes the impact of batting average on slugging percentage, would rank sixth among major-league qualifiers.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays

2023 minors: .324 BA (460 AB), 31 HR, .975 OPS, 42 BB, 100 K
2023 majors: .235 BA (34 AB), 1 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
2024 minors: .261 BA (142 AB), 9 HR, .824 OPS, 14 BB, 35 K

Caminero began this year as the top prospect to stash in Fantasy, and as he begins a rehab assignment for a quadriceps injury that's sidelined him since late May, he belongs in that discussion again. No, he wasn't lighting up Triple-A at the time of his injury, but he still hits the ball as hard as any minor-leaguer (92.6 mph average exit velocity and 117.2 mph max) without having any obvious strikeout concerns. He also held his own in a major-league stint last season, which included a couple postseason at-bats.

That late-season trial would have earned most prospects of Caminero's caliber a guaranteed roster spot the following spring, but the Rays' embarrassment of interesting hitters made it a non-starter. The herd has thinned, you could say, in the weeks since Caminero got hurt. Early-season darlings like Richard Palacios, Jose Caballero and Jonny DeLuca have shown themselves to be undeserving of everyday duty, and with the Rays outside of the playoff picture at the moment, it's possible they reduce Caminero's roadblocks even further at the trade deadline. By that point, Caminero will be back up to speed and ready to contribute should the opportunity present itself.

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks

2023 minors: .278 BA (417 AB), 20 HR, 36 SB, .874 OPS, 56 BB, 101 K
2023 majors: .129 BA (31 AB), 1 SB, 2 BB, 11 K
2024 minors: .327 BA (49 AB), 1 HR, 5 SB, .945 OPS, 6 BB, 11 K

Update: The Diamondbacks announced Wednesday that Lawlar had suffered a setback with his hamstring and will be sidelined for another 6-8 weeks, so clearly he's not someone to stash in redraft leagues. If you're looking for a fifth prospect to stash (and I'd argue you shouldn't be), let me refer you to the first name in this week's Five on the Periphery, Nick Yorke.

Between a recent hamstring injury and a much longer absence for a torn tendon in his thumb, Lawlar has hardly played this year, but what little he has played, he's looked the consensus top-15 prospect who was expected to challenge for the starting shortstop job in spring training. He's also dabbled at third base, and it just so happens that the Diamondbacks' two weakest positions all season long have been shortstop and third base.

Clearly, Lawlar will need some time to get his legs back under him in the minors, and even when he does, he's not a surefire stash in redraft leagues. The hitting profile isn't unimpeachable the way Caminero's is. Lawlar doesn't generate considerable exit velocities and will have to elevate to his pull side to live up to his power projection. But he's an unapologetic base-stealer with a penchant for getting on base, which should suffice with even just a dash of power.

FIVE ON THE PERIPHERY

(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)

Nick Yorke, 2B, Red Sox

2023 minors: .268 BA (444 AB), 13 HR, 18 SB, .785 OPS, 51 BB, 122 K
2024 minors: .281 BA (278 AB), 8 HR, 14 SB, .780 OPS, 35 BB, 60 K

If you've been hip to the prospect scene for a number of years now, then you'll probably recall that Yorke was a pretty big deal in 2021. A surprise first-round pick just a year earlier, he made the Red Sox look like geniuses by batting .325 with a .928 OPS between two levels of A-ball and was a fixture on top-100 lists the following year.

He's fallen on hard times since then, but the enthusiasm is ramping up again with his performance since climbing to Triple-A on June 5. In 26 games at that level, he's batting .330 (34 for 103) with four homers and six steals, and before you dismiss it as a small-sample fluke, note that he's genuinely walloping the ball, delivering an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph and a max of 109.1 mph. Those are better readings than expected for a player who always profiled as hit over power, and they should play nicely at Fenway Park whenever he gets that chance. It could come sooner than later given the Red Sox's ongoing struggle to fill second base this year.

Justin Crawford, OF, Phillies

2023 minors: .332 BA (349 AB), 3 HR, 47 SB, .859 OPS, 32 BB, 69 K
2024 minors: .295 BA (288 AB), 6 HR, 27 SB, .771 OPS, 21 BB, 27 K

The son of Carl Crawford made for a fine imitation last year and appears to have taken another step in that direction this year by adding a little thunder to his lightning. More specifically, his ground-ball rate has gone from being over 70 percent last year, an absurd number by any measure, to a still-not-great-but-at-least-workable 60 percent this year, and with that, he's already doubled his home run total in 18 fewer games. Two of those home runs have come in July, during which he's batting .429 (12 for 28) so far. Like his father, Crawford's success will depend on him hitting for average and stealing a bunch of bases, but if he can pop 10-15 homers with some regularity, it'll make his path much easier.

Ignacio Alvarez, SS, Braves

2023 minors: .284 BA (419 AB), 7 HR, 16 SB, .786 OPS, 66 BB, 87 K
2024 minors: .288 BA (264 AB), 5 HR, 21 SB, .788 OPS, 42 BB, 56 K

In 48 games at Double-A, "Nacho" Alvarez didn't homer even once, but in 22 games after his move up to Triple-A, he's already homered five times, batting .330 (31 for 94). Power isn't thought to be a major part of his skill set -- and even during his stint at Triple-A, the contact quality is lacking -- but the scouting reports rave about his hit tool and willingness to take a walk. I dare say that the complete package looks a little bit like Vaughn Grissom, but an even better comp, to go a little further back in Braves history, would be Martin Prado. Alvarez almost certainly isn't a stud in waiting, but he may be productive enough to be useful in Fantasy -- and sooner than later.

Austin Peterson, SP, Guardians

2023 minors: 4.54 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 117 IP, 27 BB, 102 K
2024 minors: 2.30 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 98 IP, 6 BB, 102 K

Few organizations excel at pitcher development like the Guardians do, so you can't be surprised when they unearth another gem like they appear to have done with Peterson. Drafted in the ninth round two years ago, the 24-year-old stands out most for his immaculate control. His six walks in 98 innings give him a rate of 0.6 per nine innings, which is bettered only by the Twins' Zebby Matthews, another breakout pitching prospect this year. Of course, a 24-year-old outclassing hitters at High-A isn't exactly headline news, but Peterson has been at his best in his two starts since moving up to Double-A. He struck out 10 over six innings in one and allowed one hit over seven innings in the other.

Demetrio Crisantes, 2B, Diamondbacks

2023 minors: .347 BA (101 AB), 1 HR, 2 SB, .882 OPS, 11 BB, 21 K
2024 minors: .377 BA (191 AB), 4 HR, 14 SB, 1.011 OPS, 28 BB, 38 K

Those who play in Dynasty leagues deep enough that waiting 3-4 years for a payoff is no big deal will want to take note of Cristantes, who's been one of the breakout players in the Arizona Complex League (i.e., Rookie ball) this year. The 19-year-old has the third-highest batting average among qualifying minor-leaguers (with Jacob Wilson of course having the highest), and there's nothing hollow about it. The exit velocity readings are just want you want to see for a player his age, and the approach is advanced as well. So far, he's made an easy transition to Low-A Visalia, batting .414 (29 for 70) with three homers in 18 games there.