In this space, Scott White will highlight some of the more notable changes to his rest-of-season rankings. You'll find said rankings here and are urged to bookmark them if you haven't already. There's no better resource for gauging player value throughout the long season.
There's no sugarcoating it: George Kirby turned in a great big stinker Tuesday at the Tigers, allowing 11 runs on 12 hits in 3 2/3 innings. Initially, all 11 runs were earned, but a scoring change after the game mercifully reduced that number to six.
Even when it looked like his ERA had jumped from 3.13 to 3.73 before settling, finally, at 3.42, I wasn't so inclined to move him down the rankings. If his ERA were so elevated all season long, I'd of course view Kirby in a different light. That's not to say he'd be an order of magnitude worse, but I'd have some of the same questions for him that I do for Aaron Nola and Zac Gallen.
But Kirby's ERA hasn't been there all season long. It only came to be that way because of this one runaway start, a total black sheep event in which seemingly everything that could go wrong did. Beat writer Daniel Kramer describes it as a comedy of near-errors. Kirby served up three long balls, sure, but they wouldn't have been nearly as damaging if not for all the infield hits, as shown in the clip below. Baseball can be funny like that.
Simply put, the nightmarish start wasn't an indictment of Kirby's skill. He had his usual velocity and threw strikes at his typically high rate. He still registered 15 whiffs on 86 pitches. Perhaps most revealing is that while his ERA climbed several dozen points, his xFIP remained the same as before the game: 3.40.
The most I could bring myself to move Kirby down, then, was one spot, behind Dylan Cease, who's the better strikeout pitcher. Any further would put Kirby behind Cole Ragans, whose workload may be starting to catch to him given his reduced velocity in recent starts, and Pablo Lopez, who's still trying to bring his ERA back to a respectable level after multiple misfires earlier this year. I'd say their issues are bigger than Kirby's.
Starting pitcher
- I recently wrote about the possibility of the Tigers slowing down Tarik Skubal now that he's equaled his career-high in innings, and I'm tempted to move him out of the No. 1 spot in response. But he's so much better for strikeouts than Zack Wheeler, especially Corbin Burnes, that I'm holding off for now. If it makes you feel any better, I do think any workload management would be more of a gentle easing than a hard cutoff.
- I've seen fit to move another potential workload victim down a spot, Paul Skenes, but that's mostly because I'm trying to rank Blake Snell as high as I can stand to. This marks the fourth straight season in which his performance has taken a 180-degree turn midway through, and it wouldn't surprise me if he's just the best pitcher in baseball to close out the year (I'm hedging my bet by placing him sixth or now). Over his past seven starts, he has a 0.99 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and 11.9 K/9, and over his final 22 starts last year, remember, he had a 1.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 12.5 K/9.
- The biggest drop for a pitcher with mounting innings concerns belongs to Garrett Crochet, who has fallen from 47 to 62, putting him between borderline rosterables like Shane Baz and Matt Waldron. He hasn't completed five innings since June and has seen his performance suffer as well. Given that his main utility to the White Sox is as a trade token, it's a wonder he's still pitching at all.
- I've decided to stop giving deference to Freddy Peralta and Zac Gallen, moving Jack Flaherty and Bailey Ober past them in the rankings. They're the two that have actually performed like aces this year -- and with no sign of letting up. Frankly, Logan Webb and Aaron Nola should be looking over their shoulders as well.
- Gerrit Cole seemed to regain his slider in his last start, which is enough for me to bump him up seven spots to 20th. It's not the highest I've ranked him since his return from the elbow injury that cost him the first 2 1/2 months -- he faked me out with a couple good starts in July -- but my restraint is more out of an abundance of caution than a lack of faith
- Framber Valdez continues to regain some of the ground he lost earlier this season, pushing past Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele to claim the No. 24 spot. In six starts since he began featuring his curveball about 40 percent of the time, he has a 2.29 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 11.4 K/9.
- Spencer Arrighetti was somehow left out of the rankings all this time, so he debuts inside the top 50 after consecutive double digit-strikeout efforts. That ranking may not properly reflect my enthusiasm, but since he's still so widely available in CBS Sports leagues (68 percent rostered), I'm not ready to rank him ahead of anyone who I couldn't justify dropping.
- With the season beginning to wind down, wishful thinking belongs on the back burner, which is why I've decided to elevate a bunch of boring pitchers who continue to get the job done. Erick Fedde, Zach Eflin, Tyler Anderson, Michael Wacha, Jose Soriano and Tobias Myers now form the 69-74 range of my rankings, putting them ahead of relative flights of fancy like Hayden Birdsong and Zebby Matthews (who debuts at 85, by the way).
Relief pitcher
- Camilo Doval has obviously dropped out of the top 40 now that he's out of the closer role (and out of the majors altogether), but I wouldn't rule out him pushing for save chances again if he quickly rights himself in the minors. I'm fond of replacement Ryan Walker, though, and have positioned him in between other upward-trending closers Chad Green and Justin Martinez. The order reflects what I consider to be their likelihood of keeping the role.
- Further down the rankings are other possible newcomers to the closer role, including the Royals' Lucas Erceg (32), the Pirates' Aroldis Chapman (34) and the Orioles' Seranthony Dominguez (35). You can read more about them here. The order reflects how close I think they are to securing the role. You'll note that I rank all three ahead of the Marlins' Calvin Faucher and the Rockies' Victor Vodnik, who are more established in the role for their respective clubs. But they aren't as capable and aren't as likely to rack up a big number of saves given how bad the Marlins and Rockies are.
Catcher
- Will Smith hasn't seemed himself since the All-Star break, but really, it's the playing-time advantage that's compelled me to move Salvador Perez ahead of him. Seems like Smith is sitting out every third or fourth game these days.
- I was cautious in my ranking of Willson Contreras following his six-week absence for a fractured forearm, but at the time, Francisco Alvarez and Ryan Jeffers looked like studs or something close to it. They've since fallen off while Contreras has been doing typical Contreras things. He solidifies what I think is now a clear-cut top seven at the position.
- Joey Bart has climbed into my top 24 now that he's pretty solidly the Pirates' starting catcher and a quality power hitter to boot. I'm tempted to move him past Sean Murphy, who continues to be MIA at the plate and probably shouldn't be taking as many at-bats away from Travis d'Arnaud as he is.
First base
- Triston Casas is already a couple of weeks into his rehab assignment for a cartilage tear in his rib cage, and the Red Sox have said he'll be up as soon as he feels like he has his timing down. Well, he just hit his first home run Tuesday, so that day could be soon. I've bumped him up to 14th for now, though if he delivers on his upside, he'll also surpass Cody Bellinger, Alec Burleson and Vinnie Pasquantino pretty handily.
- Jake Burger homered for the 14th time in 26 games Tuesday and has been so hot that his batting average is now higher than a year ago. It's still a modest .251, but the point is that his season now hardly resembles the abject disaster it once was. My enthusiasm for him isn't totally restored, but he's up to 21st now, and you could make the case for him as high as 15th. Moving up with him is fellow hot hand Josh Bell, who has homered nine times in his past 19 games.
Second base
- Mookie Betts, who returned Monday after a long absence for a fractured hand, has immediately reclaimed the top spot in the second base rankings. I was initially willing to give Ketel Marte the benefit of the doubt, for as good as he's been, but now he's dealing with a low-grade ankle sprain that could sideline him for a few days. And for what it's worth, Betts has averaged more Head-to-Head points per game this year (3.89 vs. 3.73).
- I've decided that second base is the ultimate YOLO position, putting aside my inhibitions to rank Brandon Lowe, Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Holliday sixth, seventh and eighth while also elevating Xavier Edwards and Tyler Fitzgerald into the top 12. Mostly, it reflects the weakness of the position. Bogaerts and Holliday are 16th and 17th for me at shortstop, to put it in perspective. With Brice Turang slowing down, there are only four second basemen deserving of special distinction, so why not favor the ones who are making waves right now?
- Also closing in on my top 12 is Luis Garcia, whose breakout season has been softened by him regularly sitting against left-handed pitchers. Even with such a constraint, though, he's now eighth among second baseman in total Head-to-Head points, which is the format where the loss of playing time would impact him the most. Over his past 30 games, he's batting .376 (41 for 109) with seven homers and eight steals.
Third base
- Like Austin Riley and Manny Machado before him, Alex Bregman is finally coming around, batting .307 with 10 homers in his past 33 games to put himself back in the stud conversation at the position. I've slotted him just behind those two in Rotisserie and sandwiched him right in between in Head-to-Head points, where his low strikeout rate makes him more appealing. All three now rank ahead of Royce Lewis, whose next injury will likely come too soon.
- Junior Caminero is back with the Rays and hopefully their third baseman for good with Isaac Paredes now out of the picture. The 21-year-old remains in the top-prospect-in-baseball conversation, delivering remarkable exit velocities for a player his age, and after seeing how Jackson Holliday's return to the majors has gone, I'm inclined to take an optimistic stance here. I've slotted Caminero 14th, right behind Matt Chapman and Mark Vientos.
Shortstop
- For as much as Jackson Merrill has turned on the power lately, he's still lagging behind his xSLG, according to Statcast, so it's probably time to acknowledge that the rookie has taken a turn for the studly and rank him accordingly. He's climbed to 10th in my shortstop rankings, putting him ahead of Oneil Cruz and Brice Turang, and to 23rd in my outfield rankings, putting him ahead of Alec Burleson, Heliot Ramos and Brenton Doyle.
- The other big riser at shortstop is Zachary Neto, whose second-half binge has put him on a 23-homer, 28-steal pace. Really, it's been going on for longer than that. Neto is the No. 6 shortstop in Head-to-Head points leagues since the start of May. Of course, others like Mookie Betts and Trea Turner weren't always healthy during that time, which is part of the reason why I'm only slotting Neto 14th for categories leagues and 13th for points leagues. Still, it's a big leap forward.
Outfield
- With Michael Harris poised to make his return from the IL Wednesday, you may be surprised to learn that he's only climbed five spots, from 29th to 24th, in my rankings. Part of that's because he had already inched up some as his return drew nearer, but part of it's because he wasn't actually performing all that well when he went down with a hamstring injury in mid-June. His 2.13 Head-to-Head points per game are a far cry from Alec Burleson's 2.81 and Heliot Ramos 2.91 -- and those are the two outfielders I rank directly behind him.
- Following his four-hit game Tuesday, James Wood is batting .397 (23 for 58) with two homers and four steals in his past 16, his ground-ball rate coming in at 52 percent during that stretch compared to 65 percent before it. It's not as convincing as the run Jackson Merrill is on, which is why I rank Wood six spots behind his fellow rookie (seven in Head-to-Head points), but even so, he's inside the top 30 now.
- The reports of Jazz Chisholm having UCL damage (but not necessarily needing surgery) make for an uneasy ranking right now. He was of course among my top 15 outfielders prior to the injury, but I've dropped him to 36th, right alongside Christian Yelich, whose availability for the rest of 2024 is similarly in doubt. Chisholm's injury is to his non-throwing arm, but since he bats opposite what he throws, it is the arm that generates all the power in his swing. Is there a chance he could play through it before addressing it in the offseason? I'm not the one to ask, but for now, I've positioned him directly between the outfielders who I consider to be must-roster and the ones who I could cut loose if I had to.