Something I want everybody to realize this early in the season is that there's a lot of baseball to be played. We're about 10 games in, roughly 6% of long journey! While now is the time to take chances on players we've never heard of like Akil Baddoo and Huascar Ynoa, we also need to be cognizant of track record when it comes to slow-starters. Yes, Tommy Pham and Charlie Blackmon are off to terrible starts but each has a long history of being Fantasy relevant and the underlying data tells us they've been unlucky. So remain patient on players like that and look to buy if anybody is panicking.
On the other side of the coin, Tyler Glasnow just looks like a man possessed. While it's aggressive to say we're moving him inside our top-10 starting pitchers, he's made tangible changes to his arsenal and, outside of Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Shane Bieber, all of the near-elite starting pitchers are in the same tier. Why can't Glasnow be as good, if not better than Aaron Nola or Yu Darvish rest of season? The only realistic answers to that are health and control. If you're worried about either of those, then Glasnow is a sell-high candidate for you. I'm looking to hold unless I'm blown away.
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Where Glasnow ranks rest of season
Rays SP Tyler Glasnow was brilliant yet again in his Monday start. Here's a look at his dominant stat line: 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 K. He drew a whopping 27 whiffs on 102 pitches. Glasnow now has just 29 strikeouts and just three walks this season through his first three starts. More importantly and likely sparking the dominance, he's now a three-pitch starter with a very legit three-pitch arsenal. In his start on Monday here's how his pitch mix shook out: 59% fastball, 23% slider, 19% curveball.
We'll dive into more buy-low and sell-high candidates below, but let's start with Glasnow and in the process attempt to determine where he ranks for the rest of the season among all SPs.
He is making a case to leapfrog proven SPs and Scott is just about ready to move him up over the likes of Luis Castillo and Jack Flaherty. Scott's biggest concern coming into the season was would he go deep into games, and he's answered that, so that's why he's moving up his rest of the season rankings.
As for Chris, while he'd still take Yu Darvish, Trevor Bauer and Lucas Giolito over Glasnow, at this point he's convinced Glasnow is better than Castillo, Clayton Kershaw and Aaron Nola. However, because of the innings concerns, he's not ready to move him above them in his rankings. For Chris, it's a similar case to the current situation with another pitcher who is dominating right now: Corbin Burnes.
But we can understand managers who are even more bullish on their rest of the season ranking of Glasnow because he's simply been dominant enough to warrant it. Glasnow has a .194 BABIP despite giving up just seven hits. He has a 42% strikeout rate to go along with it and he just looks impossible to hit right now. His swinging strike rate from Monday was something that was only matched in 2020 for stretches by deGrom and Giolito.
Both Scott and Chris came to the same conclusion regarding potentially "selling high" on Glasnow and the answer is no -- neither wants to move him right now.
More news and notes
- Diamondbacks SP Zac Gallen will return Tuesday and start against the Oakland A's. He threw 67 pitches in his most recent rehab start so maybe he gets up to 80 or so pitches on Tuesday.
- Angels 3B Anthony Rendon was placed on the 10-day IL with a strained groin. He usually misses about 15-20 games per season anyway, so this is no reason to panic. OF Juan Lagares was also scratched. Jared Walsh was in RF, Jose Rojas was at 3B, with Albert Pujols at 1B on Monday.
- Yesterday I mentioned Angels OF Jo Adell as a stash due to the Dexter Fowler injury, but it's possible we're looking at the wrong stash here and OF Brandon Marsh (12% rostered) might be closer. Marsh is still just 23 years old, a former second-round pick in 2016, and here was his minor league stat line in 2019: .287 BA, 7 HR, 19 SB (.799 career OPS).
- Rangers RP Matt Bush was diagnosed with a flexor tendon strain in his right arm Monday and will miss at least 12 weeks, which is relevant because top prospect Demarcus Evans threw live batting practice on Sunday. He's working his way back from a lat injury. Back in 2019, Evans had a 0.90 ERA, 1.03 WHIP with 100 K and 12 saves in 60 IP. Evans is a deep stash and he could eventually take over for Ian Kennedy if he falters or is traded.
- White Sox SP Carlos Rodon was scratched Monday with an upset stomach. Dallas Keuchel started in his place.
- Diamondbacks placed 1B Christian Walker on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain. Asdrubal Cabrera started at first base Monday night.
- Mets SP Marcus Stroman will start Tuesday against the Phillies after having his start rained out Sunday. He was originally scheduled to face the Rockies in Colorado this week so that's an upgrade for him.
- White Sox SS Tim Anderson is expected back for the White Sox when first eligible this Thursday.
- Mets SP Carlos Carrasco, who is rehabbing his hamstring injury, has stretched out to four innings in his rehab. He's currently week-to-week. So this is some good news there.
- Nationals 1B Josh Bell, OF Kyle Schwarber, and 2B Josh Harrison were all back in the lineup for the Nats on Monday, the first time for each of them this season following their COVID-19 situation.
- Yankees 1B Luke Voit is "doing really well" in his recovery from knee surgery and could begin baseball activities next week.
- Padres SP Adrian Morejon was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left forearm strain Monday. We still don't know who will fill in for him but it doesn't sound like it's going to be Dinelson Lamet. There was a report that he needs to make at least one more start at the alternate training site until he joins the Padres.
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Buy-low candidates
Rays 2B Brandon Lowe
Lowe is batting .156 right now. Entering Monday, he was 0-for-9 against left-handed pitching.
Verdict: Chris was never high on Lowe and he believes there are lots of reasons to be concerned right now (like the fact that he has zero barrels). He wouldn't buy low here. Scott sees him as a streaky player and that makes him hard to feel confident about buying low on.
So far this season, Ozuna is striking out over 35% of the time while batting .139 with just a .383 OPS. It's ugly.
Verdict: Scott is loving any opportunity he can to buy low on Ozuna after just a 10-game slump. If anyone who has Ozuna in your leagues is willing to move him, now is the time to do it.
Braves 2B Ozzie Albies
It has been a super slow start for Albies in the raw numbers, but the advanced stats show why this slump is highly unlikely to be sustainable. Just look at how his actual stat line compares to his expected stat line in these two metrics: .135 BA vs .296 xBA (expected batting average) and .270 SLG vs. .515 xSLG (expected slugging percentage).
Verdict: He's one of my personal favorite buy-low targets right now and both Chris and Scott agree with me on this one.
Rockies OF Charlie Blackmon
Verdict: Chris is confident that Blackmon might be the best buy-low candidate just because anyone who drafted him was already skeptical of him falling off and that could factor in to drive his price down even further. Chris would actively try to go out and get him right now because of the perception of Blackmon right now.
Padres OF Tommy Pham
Verdict: Scott doesn't see any cause for alarm here with Pham, but he's certainly not a young player. However, as a general rule, Scott is looking to buy low on any player inside the top 100 of his rankings and Pham qualifies. I'll jump on this one with Scott and buy low on Pham. He's making hard contact, but he's been unlucky and anytime you can get exposure to the Padres lineup, it's something you should look into doing.
Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton
Verdict: Stanton has five balls batted over 115 MPH+ this season, and the nine other hitters who have put a ball in play at 115 MPH+ this season have just 11 combined -- a stat courtesy of Chris. Buy low on Stanton!
Verdict: The FBT team actually made a trade today involving Hiura! Chris was in need of help at 2B after losing Ketel Marte to the IL, and he wasn't using Shohei Ohtani at DH, so he took the swing on Hiura. I acquired Ohtani for Hiura straight up. Speaking of Hiura, on Saturday he had four batted balls of at least 101.9 MPH -- and that's really good. It's a sign to Chris that he may be starting to figure things out.
Sell-high candidates
Padres 1B/OF Wil Myers
Verdict: Scott pinpointed Myers as a potential swap for someone like Ozuna (mentioned above), but he's not confident about naming him a sell-high either. I like what I'm seeing from Myers and would hang on to him.
Verdict: None of us three have strong feelings on moving Arenado right now and would lean toward hanging on to him.
Rays OF Randy Arozarena
Verdict: Scott has the least confidence in Arozarena of these three and would be most likely to move him right now.
Monday's OMGG player
Scott White's pick: Braves SP Huascar Ynoa
Ynoa will serve as the fifth starter as the Braves wait for Mike Soroka (who was shut down for another two weeks) and they might just have to find a way to stick with him. He dominated the Marlins on Monday. His stat line: 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 10 K. He had 14 swinging strikes on just 82 pitches. These are big-time numbers and he didn't just dominate because he was facing the Marlins -- his stuff looked great. The fastball averaged 97.2 and he topped triple-digits with it. This is surprising because there's not much of a minor-league track record, but he's dealing and it's time to take a flier on Ynoa.
Chris Towers' pick: Brewers SP Freddy Peralta
Peralta is still striking out batters at an incredible rate, but he's now starting to show signs of getting his command in line -- the walks are way down this season. On Monday, Peralta was dealing. Here was his stat line against the Cubs: 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 10 K. The run he gave up was a home run by Kris Bryant and it's the only run he's allowed all season now in three appearances. His ERA stands at a shiny 0.69. He has 24 strikeouts in 13 innings and he's given up just five hits all season long.
My pick: Tigers SP Casey Mize
Mize delivered a truly impressive stat line on Monday: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Of course, it's important to keep in mind Mize had only six whiffs on 89 pitches but the velocity remains up across the board compared to last year and that's the most important sign moving forward. This was the first time in his career Mize went six-plus innings. He's still only 61% rostered and draws a juicy matchup against the lowly Royals lineup next.
Five players to claim off your waiver wire now
- Tigers SP Casey Mize
- Braves SP Huascar Ynoa
- Athletics 2B Jed Lowrie
- Tigers 1B Renato Nunez
- Angels SP Alex Cobb
The best of what you might've missed
We've all been there -- three weeks into a fresh Fantasy season and several players you counted on being contributors are bringing you down in several categories or not scoring you enough points in H2H leagues. On Monday, Chris debuted a new column breaking down some of the young season's biggest underperformers at every single position -- including multiple pitchers -- and what exactly you should do with them. Drop 'em? Hold 'em? Like Kenny Rogers said, you gotta know when to hold 'em and in this case when to drop them. Towers' breakdown includes some of the hottest sleepers at the end of draft season including Andrew Vaughn, Corey Kluber and more. You can catch up on that here.
