Rookies are no longer sure things for Fantasy Baseball. For a while there, it felt like every top prospect who got the call from the minors hit the ground running and was an immediate superstar, but as Scott White wrote about last week, it's been a pretty rough couple of years for the biggest prospects in Fantasy Baseball, and things don't seem to be getting any easier for them.
And yet, we're still going to tell you to chase the biggest prospects when they get called up. Because, while the chances of any given player making the leap from Triple-A to the majors and becoming an immediate difference maker are pretty slim, they're certainly higher than the chances of any other player on your waiver-wire in late August doing the same. Just looking at the most-added outfielders available in my 12-team Rotisserie home league, Nos. 2 through 5 look like this: Whit Merrifield, Ramon Laureano, David Peralta, and Joey Loperfido.
No. 1? Dylan Crews, a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball and the No. 2 pick in last year's draft. So, yeah, I'm going with door No. 1 here and hoping the young kid hits the ground running now that he's set to make his MLB debut this week.
To be fair, it's not like he's exactly hit the ground running as a professional the way we hoped. He hasn't been bad, by any means, but the 22-year-old is hitting .270/.342/.451 across Double-A and Triple-A; by comparison, fellow Nationals rookie James Wood was hitting .343/.463/.595 at Triple-A when he got called up. Crews has been fine, but hasn't necessarily been so dominant against Triple-A pitching that you can easily project impact production for Fantasy.
But the upside is certainly there. It was there when he was one of the most productive college players of all time in his career as Louisiana State, and it's there every time scouts look at him. Crews is a plus athlete, capable of handling center field while stealing 25 bases in 100 games, and he has comfortably-plus raw power to project on. He hasn't quite figured out how to consistently tap into that raw power with wooden bats, sporting an ISO below .200 at both levels this season, but it wouldn't take much tweaking to get there – hit a few more balls in the air, especially to the pull side, and it's not hard to see Crews becoming a 25-homer guy in the majors.
He probably won't be that kind of hitter immediately, but I'd much rather take the flier on Crews figuring it out than the typical outfield option rostered in 55% of CBS Fantasy leagues. Most of them almost certainly won't matter much for Fantasy. Crews might not either, but at least the upside is there, and that's worth betting on.
Here's who else we're looking to add ahead of Week 23:
Catchers
Jacob Stallings, Rockies (2%) – Stallings is probably not your long-term answer at catcher. But I'm pretty comfortable starting him in Week 23 with seven games on the schedule for the Rockies at Coors Field. Stallings has hit well pretty much everywhere in the second half (.923 OPS, four homers in 17 games), but I'm always going to be more excited about starting a Rockies player at home, and he's a fine option for this week.
Deep-league target: Miguel Amaya, Cubs (5%) – At one point early in his career, Amaya was a top-100 prospect, but, as often happens with catchers, his career just never really took off. But it might be starting to happen here, as he has four homers in August – he had just three all season prior to this month – with significantly improved quality of contact metrics. He makes sense as a hot-hand play at catcher, at least.
First Base
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (46%) – After having six hits in his first three games back from Triple-A, Torkelson has slowed down, but I'm still very interested in adding him pretty much everywhere this weekend. Not because I'm absolutely certain he'll be a difference maker for Fantasy, but because, as with Crews, I just think there's much more upside here than with your typical first base option on waivers. Remember, this guy hit 19 homers after the All-Star break last season and helped countless players to Fantasy championships.
Deep-league target: Niko Kavadas, Angels (2%) – Kavadas has looked pretty overwhelmed in his first taste of the majors, striking out 13 times in his first 24 plate appearances. But if you're in a deep league and want to take a chance on some upside, he does have 27 career homers in 142 games at Triple-A. Maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle
Second base
Connor Norby, Marlins (18%) – Well, Norby's first stint with the Marlins has gone about as well as you could have hoped. He has hit safely in six straight games since being recalled, with homers in consecutive games Saturday and Sunday, plus four doubles. Add it all up and he is 9 for 24 with seven runs, two homers, and three RBI in his first six games, with manageable contact rates and even a stolen base. It's the kind of well-rounded skill set he showed off in the minors, and while the Marlins lineup won't help much, he does have a better home park in Miami than he did in Baltimore, which helps. I think he's a solid pickup in pretty much every league right now.
Deep-league target: Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (26%) – Given his solid contact skills (17.9% strikeout rate), it's fair to wonder if Horwitz might not have a bit more batting average upside than he has shown so far. It's an important question because he is hitting .230 in the month of August, which makes it harder to buy into his four homers this month having much appeal. BUt if he could be more like a .270 hitter with average power and good on-base skills? That starts to look alot more promising. I think he's probably still just a deep-league option, but it's worth keeping an eye on as he starts to flash more power.
Third base
Shay Whitcomb, Astros (19%) – With Alex Bregman's elbow injury seeming likely to limit him to first base or DH duties for the foreseeable future, Whitcomb is getting a legitimate chance here. He hasn't shown much over the fence pop in his first week or so in the majors, but the upside is clearly there, as evidenced by his 91.6 mph average exit velocity – not to mention his 48 homers in 195 games over the past two seasons at Triple-A. If he's going to play everyday or close to it, Whitcomb is worth a look in all category-based leagues, at least.
Deep-league target: Andres Chaparro, Nationals (8%) – There hasn't been much over-the-fence power from Chaparro yet, but everything else looks pretty solid. He has struck out just three times in his first 40 MLB plate appearances entering Sunday, with a .297 batting average and six doubles. There might just be some upside here as a cheap source of batting average.
Shortstop
Ernie Clement, Blue Jays (44%) – Clement has shown really remarkable contact skills in the majors, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in both whiff rate and strikeout rate despite being a pretty free swinger. For the most part, that has manifested in him being a pretty empty contact hitter, but he has shown a bit more power lately, hitting four homers in August to date. With his speed (three August steals), it's an interesting Roto skill set, if not one I'm totally convinced of.
Deep-league target: Jose Tena, Nationals (4%) – One thing I appreciate about the Nationals ongoing rebuild has been their willingness to prioritize players who might have been stuck in Quad-A purgatory on other rosters. Tena seemingly had no path to a consistent role in Cleveland, but he's been playing pretty regularly since joining the Nationals and he hit his first homer as part of a three-hit game Saturday. In 120 career games at Triple-A, he had 23 homers and 15 steals, and there's an interesting skill set here if you're looking for a name in those deeper, NL-only leagues.
Outfield
Parker Meadows, Tigers (25%) – I'm at the point where I kind of think Meadows is just one of the most under-rostered players in Fantasy at this point. He has played 15 games since returning from the IL, hitting .349/.379/.556 entering play Sunday, with five steals and nine extra-base hits. Meadows pretty clearly needs to be rostered in any categories leagues right now, and I'd say basically in any five-outfielder league of any format.
Tommy Edman, Dodgers (58%) – Edman hasn't done much since coming back from the IL, but the most important thing is that he has started six straight for the Dodgers. It's a great lineup, and Edman has a pretty long track record of being a good contributor for Fantasy. That's not guaranteed – he missed an awful lot of time recovering from wrist surgery – but Edman was a must-start Fantasy option for five straight seasons before this year, so I think it's worth betting that he'll figure this out.
Joey Loperfido, Blue Jays (15%) – We may be starting to see some signs of Loperfido figuring things out. Over the past week entering Sunday, he is 10 for 20 with seven extra-base hits and only four strikeouts as he has emerged as an everyday option for the Blue Jays. We've gotten faked out by him before this season, but if you need an outfielder, betting on a young player with the kind of upside Loperfido has shown (mostly in the minors, but now at the MLB level lately) makes a lot of sense.
Starting pitcher
Spencer Arrighetti, Astros (72%) – Consistency has been a huge issue for Arrighetti, but at this point, I think we have to view him as a must-roster pitcher for Fantasy, at least. He followed up his 25-strikeouts-in-two-starts stretch with a clunker against the White Sox of all teams, but then followed that up last week by shutting the Orioles out over six innings of work, and he now has a 2.55 ERA with 36 strikeouts to six walks over 24.2 innings in August. I have no idea if he can keep it up, but the improved command has helped the whole profile play up, and it makes Arrighetti a very promising option.
Jacob deGrom, Rangers (70%) – Say what you want about his inability to stay on the mound for long, but there's no denying that deGrom is one of the very best pitchers in baseball when he's out there. He has a 2.08 ERA since 2018 and even amid a ton of lost time due to injuries had 147 strikeouts in 94.2 innings between 2022 and 2023. He's coming back from another Tommy John surgery and is already hitting 100 as he begins his rehab assignment, with an expected return to the majors set for around the second week of September. You know he's going to be a difference maker when healthy.
Bowden Francis, Blue Jays (55%) – There have been flashes from Francis, but he looks like one of the biggest breakouts in baseball after his most recent start, where he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning and struck out 12 over eight innings against the Angels Saturday. He's been emphasizing his splitter recently, and while it looks like merely a decent pitch on its own, the effect it might be having on the rest of the arsenal is worth noting – especially the fastball, which generated 10 whiffs in Saturday's start. That's now three straight starts of at least seven innings and no more than one earned run, with 27 strikeouts to just three walks in that span. He sure looks like a must-roster pitcher right now.
Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks (44%) – I'm not sure I really believe in Nelson, but there's no question he's pitched well enough to earn a chance, and that's exactly what the Diamondbacks are doing by keeping him in the rotation. He has recently made a change in his approach to emphasize throwing his fastball up in the zone more consistently, and it's helped lead to a 2.91 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 43.1 innings over seven starts since the All-Star break. He doesn't really generate the kind of elite whiffs to support that strikeout rate, but it's gone on long enough that I can't just write it off as a fluke, especially now that his spot in the rotation is secure.
Andrew Heaney, Rangers (42%) – At this point, I think we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Heaney – he'll have stretches where he looks like a must-start pitcher, but he rarely sustains it for long enough, or pitches deep enough into games consistently enough, to actually justify that label. But in Week 23, he's a two-start pitcher with matchups against the White Sox and Athletics on tap, and that should be good for at least double-digit strikeouts, and hopefully some pretty helpful ratios.
Jack Leiter, Rangers (20%) – I know Leiter's first taste of the majors was an outright disaster. But he continues to flash significant upside in the minors, including 20 strikeouts over his past two outings. At this point in his career, he is still heavily dependent on his fastball for success, and that might not work out for him against major-leaguers. But the upside is worth taking a flier on in deeper leagues as it looks like he'll get another chance this week.
Relief pitcher
Lucas Erceg, Royals (40%) – I don't think making Erceg the closer was Plan A when they acquired him, but he's been a heck of a Plan B since Hunter Harvey's injury. Erceg has four saves over the past two weeks and has 15 strikeouts to zero walks in 11.1 innings since the trade. I don't think Harvey is going to get that ninth inning job back when healthy at this point.
Edwin Uceta, Rays (20%) – It's no sure thing that Uceta will be the closer with Pete Fairbanks on the IL; in fact, while he got the very first post-Fairbanks save, the next two both went to a different pitcher. Rays gonna Ray, you know? But Uceta is certainly going to be in the mix, and he's just been dominant this season, striking out 35% of opposing batters while allowing three runs in 31.1 innings on the season. Rays gonna Ray, you know?