With the All-Star break here and the trade deadline looming, it's time to take stock of where you stand in your Fantasy Baseball league. Are you sitting pretty at the top of the league with a healthy roster? It might be time to take advantage of your solid standing by building in even more upside for your roster down the stretch, targeting undervalued, disappointing players like Randy Arozarena or Matt Olson, as well as IL stash pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Jeffrey Springs, or Robbie Ray, who could make an impact down the stretch if they get back to health.
You might also want to turn some of your depth into a stronger starting lineup if you have that option. Getting to and then winning a championship, especially in a H2H points league, is going to require having the best starting lineup possible, so if you have multiple starting-caliber players on your bench, consolidating into a higher-upside starting lineup might not be the worst idea.
Of course, if you're not in that position, your goal should still be to maximize your starting lineup. But the goal if you aren't locked into a playoff spot is to just get there, which means being even more aggressive with your remaining FAB, in addition to trying to pull off buy-low trades. There's no point in saving any FAB for the stretch run if you won't have anything to play for in August and September.
Which means you probably need to be especially aggressive with recently emerged, potential difference makers like Rece Hinds and Lawrence Butler.
Neither Hinds nor Butler looks like an especially safe bet at this point, to be clear. Hinds has been absurdly locked in since getting the call last week, hitting 11 for 26 with five homers, 11 RBI, and two steals in his first seven games. But we're also talking about a guy who had just a .698 OPS and 38% strikeout rate in Triple-A before the promotion, so it's not especially hard to see how things could go wrong here.
Butler is in a similar spot, except with even more of an MLB track record to go on. He has hit seven homers over his past 13 games, with a .326 average, 17 RBI, and three steals in that span, which is outrageous, and he capped it off with a three-homer game Sunday to close out the first half. Of course, he also finishes the first half with a .211/.280/.406 triple-slash line and 29.5% strikeout rate, which is why he's just 6% rostered as of Sunday.
There is so much swing and miss in both Hinds' and Butler's games that it's pretty easy to see how things could go sideways quickly. In Hinds' case, just think back to Aristedes Aquinos' fairy tale run back in 2019, when he homered 11 times in his first 16 games after getting called up; he would hit eight more in his next 40, and was basically never a relevant Fantasy option again, because the holes in his swing were too easy to exploit for major-league pitchers.
Hinds and Butler could find their own swings exploited before long. In Butler's case, pitchers were having little trouble doing that for the first three months of the season, despite his exceptional physical tools; in Hinds' case, Triple-A pitchers were already doing it, which is a massive red flag. But both have potential difference making power potential, and decent athleticism, too – Hinds had 12 steals in 77 games before his call up, while Butler had 15 in 49 games at Triple-A this season and last.
If you're looking up in the standings, investing heavily in these volatile waiver adds makes a ton of sense, because the difference between 12th place and 7th place in a league where only six teams make the playoffs isn't very much. You can afford to ignore the potential downsides and just worry about the possibility of catching lightning in a bottle for a few months. Both Hinds and Butler have that kind of upside.
Here's who else we're looking to add on waivers ahead of the All-Star break:
Catchers
Tyler Stephenson, Reds (50%) – It didn't get as much coverage, but Stephenson had himself a little homer binge this week, too, hitting four in three games this week. I think we know Stephenson isn't a superstar at this point, but he's a .266/.339/.423 hitter with 16 home runs per-162 games, and that's a solid starting catcher in all formats if you don't already have one.
Deep-league target: Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (4%) – It's not exactly clear if Ballesteros is going to be called up soon, but the Cubs aren't getting much from the catcher position, and he has forced his way to Triple-A despite not turning 21 until after the season. He hit .299/372/.495 in 56 games at Double-A, and then has more than held his own with a .301/.338/.452 line as one of the youngest players in the International League. There are long-term questions about where Ballesteros fits defensively in the long run, but if you're in the kind of league where prospects get stashed, he's a pretty good one to look at.
First Base
Michael Toglia, Rockies (19%) – There's enough swing-and-miss in Toglia's game that he's probably never going to be a full-time starter for Fantasy. However, when he's hot, he can contribute some power, and he's hot right now, with six homers in his past six games. If you want to ride the hot hand, the Rockies open the second half with six straight games at home.
Deep-league target: Juan Yepez, 1B, Nationals () – Yepez was interesting once upon a time with the Cardinals, and he's looking interesting in his second chance here with the Nationals, hitting safely in his first 10 games since being recalled from Triple-A. Yepez has shown really solid bat-to-ball skills in both the majors and minors, so if there's any power here at all, he could be a pretty useful corner infield type.
Second base
Colt Keith, Tigers (65%) – Keith looks like he's starting to figure it out, with five homers in just 13 games in the month of July. His expected wOBA over the past 100 plate appearances is sitting at .344, a well above-average mark, and even his season-long number of .322 would be better than the MLB average this season. The game is starting to slow down for Keith.
Deep-league target: Brandon Drury, Angels (15%) – I'm just gonna keep betting on Drury figuring things out. It's not like the Angels have a ton of alternatives to go with, and Drury had an .808 OPS with a 33-homer pace between 2022 and 2023. If he gets back to that level, he's a must-roster player.
Third base
oby Mayo, Orioles (47%) – Mayo is a consensus top-30 prospect hitting .302/.383/.608 at Triple-A with potentially difference-making power, and Orioles GM Mike Elias acknowledged this weekend, "We're thinking about it, we're working on it. I'm sure it's coming very soon." Whether that means a return is actually looming or we'll need to see a roster move or two to get there, I think we'll see Mayo before the end of the month, and it's another potential impact bat in a lineup full of them.
Deep-league target: Anthony Rendon, Angels (10%) – Don't laugh. Rendon is playing everyday as the Angels leadoff hitter, so if he hits at all, he's going to matter for Fantasy.
Shortstop
Matt McLain, Reds (47%) – McLain is probably still at least a few weeks away, at minimum, but we're starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel here. McLain has been taking dry swings this week and is aiming for an early-August rehab assignment. There isn't a ton of time, but McLain could absolutely be a difference maker down the stretch.
Deep-league target: Xavier Edwards, Marlins (5%) – There's very little power here, but there's speed and contact skills, and Edwards has multiple hits in six of his past eight games, with three steals in that span, while hitting .378/.440/.444 overall since his promotion. As a MI option in categories leagues, Edwards has some appeal.
Outfield
Evan Carter, Rangers (68%) – Unfortunately, there hasn't been a ton of news on Carter since he went on the IL in early June with stress reaction in his back, but he's been swinging a bat in recent weeks should be back sometime in August, at least. It was a slow start to the season, but you have a chance to get a preseason top-125 pick for just some FAB, and you should take advantage of the opportunity.
TJ Friedl, Reds (59%) – Friedl is working his way back from a hamstring injury, and it sounds like he could be back within a week or so of the start of the second half. Remember, Friedl had 18 homers and 27 steals last season and should be back to an everyday role at the top of the Reds lineup when he's healthy enough to return.
Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (40%) – It's been a tough season for Nootbaar, as he has battled multiple injuries along the way. But if you want a taste of the upside he can offer, consider this: Nootbaar has played 162 games since the start of 2023, with 91 runs, 20 homers, 66 RBI, and 14 steals. That's a must-start player in any categories league, and his excellent plate discipline makes Nootbaar a viable points-leaguer, too.
Eddie Rosario, Braves (3%) – Rosario is hitting just .183/.226/.329 this season and might just be finished as an MLB contributor. But he also hit .255 with 21 homers in just 516 plate appearances last season, so I don't want to close the book on him entirely yet, especially now that he's back with the Braves.
Starting pitcher
River Ryan, Dodgers (8%) – The Dodgers are expected to call Ryan up from Triple-A after the All-Star break, as they continue to search for answers with their beat up rotation. Ryan is a former two-way player who has come on strong since the Padres drafted him in the 11th round in 2021, and he's pitched well since missing the first couple of months of the season with a shoulder injury, striking out 27 and walking just seven in 20.1 innings between three levels of the minors. The Dodgers rotation could get crowded quickly if the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, and Walker Buehler get right, but the way this season has gone, Ryan could have a decent amount of runway to prove himself, and he's more than talented enough to do so.
Yariel Rodriguez, Blue Jays (23%) – I think consistency is going to remain an issue for Rodriguez, especially as the Blue Jays continue to limit him to right around 80 pitches per start. But the past three starts have also shown us his upside, with 19 strikeouts to seven walks in 16.2 innings of work, while allowing just three earned runs. The stuff plays at the MLB level, even as a starter, and if the Blue Jays give him a bit of a longer leash in the second half, he could break out.
German Marquez, Rockies (4%) – Marquez made his first start since April of 2023 Sunday, and while he wasn't great – three earned runs in four innings of work with four walks and three strikeouts – the stuff looks pretty good. His fastball averaged 96.1 mph, actually up slightly from 2023, while his slider and curveball combined for eight whiffs on 16 pitches. Pitching at Coors Field has always limited Marquez's ceiling, but he's been a Fantasy relevant pitcher in the past, and could be again someday.
Yilber Diaz, Diamondbacks (8%) – Through his first two MLB starts, Diaz has allowed just two runs in 12 innings of work, albeit with just seven strikeouts. He's doing a good job of keeping the ball off the barrel of the bat, and his slider looks like a legitimate weapon, with a 47% whiff rate in the small sample size so far. Whether that'll be enough – especially with how fastball heavy he has been – remains to be seen, but he's an interesting young prospect who has probably earned at least a few more turns in the Diamondbacks rotation to prove himself.
Relief pitcher
Ben Joyce, RP, Angels () – With Carlos Estevez sporting a 2.61 ERA, the Angels might be best served trying to trade him before another second-half swoon, and Joyce would be well positioned to step in as the team's primary ninth inning option. Joyce has had his struggles despite a fastball as hard as anyone in baseball's, but he's riding an 11-game scoreless streak, with 15 strikeouts and, notably, only five walks in that span. If he keeps the walks under control, Joyce has closer potential, for sure.
Brent Honeywell, RP, Dodgers (0%) – This is more one to keep an eye on in truly deep leagues, but the Dodgers had Honeywell start Sunday, and he looked pretty good in his three innings of work. I have no idea if the Dodgers are aiming to stretch him out as a starter, but Honeywell was, at one point, a high-end prospect, so maybe they can unlock something here. One interesting note: Honeywell's screwball was his second-most used pitch Sunday, as he threw eight of them on his 36 total pitches; he had thrown just two on 61 pitches with the Pirates before that start. I'm not sure Honeywell will even matter in NL-only leagues, but I'll keep an eye out on this one.
