Hayden Birdsong's stock went up this weekend in that we went from not caring about him in Fantasy to caring about him. How could we not after he did this to the Rockies on Sunday?
Birdsong’s 12 strikeouts are also the most by a Giants Rookie since Tim Lincecum on 7/1/07 vs. ARI pic.twitter.com/aA3VuGg80x
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) July 21, 2024
For those without the time or inclination to click on a highlight video, I'll make it easy and tell you he struck out 12 over six innings, allowing two runs on two hits with two walks. Dig a little deeper, and the performance looks even more impressive. He had 27 swinging strikes, the most in the majors this season, including double digits on both his curveball and slider. Only four times did he throw his changeup, which had heretofore been his best swing-and-miss pitch.
But even so, I'm hesitant to feature Birdsong among my "stock up" players for the weekend, if for no other reason than because I'm not sure how long he'll be sticking around. As Giants beat writer Maria Guardado of MLB.com points out, the 22-year-old rookie could still be optioned once Robbie Ray (Tommy John surgery) and Alex Cobb (hip surgery) are activated, which may happen this week. Ray just made what's supposed to be his 10th and final rehab start Friday. Cobb made what may well be his final one Saturday. Even if we presume Kyle Harrison gets bumped before Birdsong (which is no certainty), that's only one opening for two pitchers. Maybe the Giants shift Jordan Hicks to the bullpen. Maybe they go six-man for a while. But this start doesn't eliminate the possibility that Birdsong is sent down.
That's especially because it doesn't prove anything. Maybe no individual start does, but particularly one at Coors Field, with its physics-altering properties. If you dig into the data from Sunday's start, Birdsong's curveball and slider, the two pitchers that were so dominant, were breaking differently than usual. Is it because he sharpened them up? Could be, or it could simply be that they behaved differently a mile above sea level.
Of course, the right-hander also averaged 11.8 K/9 in the minors this year, so I don't mean to say there's no talent here. But control has been an issue in both the majors in minors, where he's issued a combined 4.1 BB/9 while throwing 62 percent of his pitches for strikes. Both of those stats present a hindrance that one good start doesn't negate.
The bottom line is I don't want to go overboard singing the praises of Birdsong given all the uncertainties surrounding him. He's worth a speculative pickup if the cost is low, but if you dump truckloads of FAB dollars on him, you may quickly come to regret it.
Randy Arozarena is still batting just .212 on the year, but the tide has clearly turned in the past month or so, capped by his 6-for-13 performance with three homers and two doubles this weekend. He's now on pace for 24 homers and 22 steals but was never really lagging in those two areas. It was mostly just the batting average that had gone wrong, in a way that wasn't so much reflected in the plate discipline and exit velocity readings, so perhaps it was inevitable he'd eventually come around. Then again, when combined with his poor second half last year, Arozarena's slow start felt a little more permanent than most. The good news is you can once again count on him to be a fixture in your lineup moving forward.
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It may be that Arozarena's sudden turnaround is largely a reflection of the improved hitting conditions around the league, but I think that's even more the case for George Springer. To put specifics to it, the league-wide home run-to-fly ball rate has gone from 11.1 percent through June 30 to 13.4 percent here in July, which might as well be opposite ends of the spectrum. For as many home runs as Springer has hit over the years, his average exit velocity has generally ranked in the lower half of the league, and it seems likely that the power-suppressed environment was impacting him more than most hitters. He showed his upside again this weekend, going 5 for 12 with three homers, and while he's still batting just .231 overall, that's up from .188 on June 24, putting him back in must-start territory.
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Jackson Chourio's top prospect standing came with certain expectations for Fantasy Baseball, and for two months, he fell well short of them. I would have understood a high strikeout rate, which sort of comes with the territory for a player so young, but that was never Chourio's issue. He simply wasn't hitting the ball with much authority, his average exit velocity sitting at 88.0 mph as of May 31. Since then, it's 90 mph, and you can see the effect it's had on his production. Since June 1, Chourio has performed at about a 20/20 pace with a batting average over .300. He went 5 for 9 with a home run and two steals in his three games this weekend. We may simply have to factor in a lengthier adjustment period for incoming hitting prospects these days.
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Lawrence Butler homered three times in his final game before the All-Star break and seven times in his final 12 games, finally bringing some legitimacy to the high exit velocity readings that have defined his time in both the minors and majors. Calling them "high" perhaps doesn't do them justice. His 92.2 mph average 113.1 mph max are akin to Austin Riley. The big question was whether the All-Star break would crush Butler's momentum and return him to the flailing mess we had previously seen in the majors. Instead, he went 7 for 11 with a triple and two doubles this weekend, lending further credence to the idea that he's enjoying a full-fledged breakout. His strikeout rate is still on the concerning side, though it's shrunk from 31.1 percent to 28.5 percent just in the last two weeks. That's probably low enough, considering how hard he hits the ball.
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Ozzie Albies will miss eight weeks after fracturing his left wrist Sunday, which will more or less spell the end of his season, and the Braves are expected to call up 21-year-old Ignacio Alvarez to replace him. "Nacho," as he's more commonly known, has put up impressive numbers in the minors this year, but he reminds me a bit of Vaughn Grissom in that, while the hit tool is legitimate, the power and speed may be a little bit of a fakeout. His exit velocity readings at Triple-A are highly suspect (87.2 mph average and 106.7 mph max), and it's worth noting that all seven of his home runs have come in the hitter-friendly International League, where he's played just 28 games compared to 48 at Double-A. He's also not an especially fast runner. Still, he'll be holding down a regular job in a lineup with ample star power, and there's a chance for Martin Prado or Jonathan India-like production.
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While Gerrit Cole has seemingly found his stride following a long injury layoff to open the year, Max Scherzer is still searching, and Saturday represented a step in the wrong direction. He left after only two innings, with much damage already done and his fastball down another 1.3 mph beyond the 1.3 mph drop he's already experienced this year. He blamed arm fatigue and said his removal was only precautionary, but whatever the reason, he just hasn't been that effective since returning from offseason back surgery, averaging just 7.4 K/9. Seeing as he's 39 and had a rather hurried buildup in the minors, perhaps these struggles aren't so surprising, but for a legendary hurler like Scherzer, no hurdle seems insurmountable. Even so, it's time to dial back expectations, planting him on your bench until he shows signs of his former dominance.
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It's bad enough that Dave Roberts passed over Evan Phillips for a save Friday, with everyone presumably at full strength coming out of the All-Star break, but Phillips didn't do anything to regain his manager's trust in the two days that followed. He allowed two runs, one earned, in the top of the 10th inning Saturday, failing to preserve a tie, and then served up three runs while recording just one out Sunday. Both of the Dodgers' saves this weekend went to Daniel Hudson, as did the team's final save before the All-Star break, but left-hander Alex Vesia has also factored into the saves mix of late. It's not totally clear where the Dodgers go from here, but it sure seems like Phillips is on his way out. He's allowed nine earned runs in his past eight appearances, raising his ERA from 1.52 to 3.77.
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Is it an overreaction to have Kutter Crawford here when his previous three starts saw him allow a total of one earned run on 10 hits in 20 innings? I'm willing to hear the argument, but on the other hand, he did allow five home runs Sunday. True, it was against the Dodgers and their stable of home run hitters, but it revealed a vulnerability in Crawford that I think is about to come to the forefront. He has the sixth-highest fly-ball rate among qualifying pitchers, which works out well enough during those stretches when the ball isn't carrying as well, but as I've already pointed out. The league-wide home run-to-fly ball rate has gone from 11.1 percent through June 30 to 13.4 percent here in July, which might as well be opposite ends of the spectrum. Sunday's start may just be the beginning of a summer correction for Crawford.
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The long wait for Gavin Williams, who missed the first three months with elbow inflammation, was supposed to yield a big payoff, but through four turns, he has delivered neither a win nor a quality start. And he doesn't seem to be making any progress. I'd say Saturday was his worst start yet, but there's another in the running -- and again, that's in only four turns. Most alarming is that he's seemingly abandoned his most effective pitch from a year ago, the slider, perhaps in response to the elbow injury, but he has yet to reveal anything else with the same bite. And so this supposed power pitcher checks in with a discouraging 7.0 K/9 and a downright pitiful 8.2 percent swinging-strike rate. I'm just not sure that the payoff is coming.
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For a while there, MacKenzie Gore looked like he had brought together all the talent that once made him the third pick in the draft and top pitching prospect in the game, improving his velocity from good to great while mixing in a changeup that allowed his fastball to play up. But he seems to have reverted to some old habits. His four walks Saturday give him in 12 in just 10 innings over his past three turns, bringing his ERA to 4.20 and his WHIP to 1.46. The left-hander has been derailed by delivery issues in the past, and manager Dave Martinez has described him as being "very rotational" right now. Maybe the Nationals will be able to straighten him out, but he's unusable in the meantime. And even if they do, he'll likely struggle to win games as a pitcher who rarely goes six innings.
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