Have you looked at a calendar recently? We're about done with this whole baseball thing -- so close to done, in fact, that any column gauging a player's rest-of-season value, as this one does, is effectively defunct. By "rest of season," we're really just talking about your next lineup and, well, there are other columns to address that.
But while I still have your attention (for however many of you I do), I would like to comment on the Gerrit Cole of it all. The reigning AL Cy Young winner has mostly pitched well since missing an extended stretch with an elbow injury. His slider hasn't been up to its usual standards, but he's made use of his other weapons and entered Saturday's start with a 1.31 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in his past six. Unfortunately, Saturday's start counts too, and here's how that went:
Yeah ... it wasn't great, but I don't think it should change your approach to Cole the rest of the way. For one thing, note the opponent. The Red Sox seem to have his number. I generally don't put much stock into team splits because the sample tends to be small, and whatever sample does exist has taken several years (and, thus, several roster permutations) to accumulate. Cole's struggles against the Red Sox have been so consistent, though, that it may be all in his head now. Clearly, Rafael Devers is. Cole was so fearful about giving up another home run to the third baseman that he intentionally walked him with nobody on base in the fourth inning Saturday. And that's when all the trouble started.
Interestingly, the only team with a better read on Cole than the Red Sox is the Mets, who have throttled him to the tune of a 6.99 ERA in nine career starts. In fact, the Red Sox and Mets are responsible for all four of Cole's "bad" starts this year. Between the other 11, he has a 1.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.8 K/9.
So long story short, he's probably fine. Nothing in the underlying data raises any red lags. I'd certainly use him in his next start against the Athletics, and provided he navigates it well enough, I'd also use him in his final start against the Orioles (or the Pirates, if he gets pushed back a day).
In other words, Cole's Fantasy stock remains the same despite the poor outing over the weekend. So which players saw their stock change?
The outing was short, lasting only 61 pitches, but I'd call it a successful return from Tommy John surgery for Jacob deGrom, who also had a 0.84 ERA, 0.47 WHIP and 12.7 K/9 across four rehab starts. Sure, the velocity was down about 1.5 mph on both his fastball and slider, but I'm not sure that's a bad thing. Remember, his health troubles began with a jump in velocity of more than 2 mph from 2019 to 2020, which he clearly didn't need. He was coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards at the time. Inning for inning, deGrom still has a claim to being the best pitcher in the world, but how many innings will he get in his final two turns against the Mariners and Angels? I like the matchups enough to roll the dice in a categories league, but you'll likely want more of a volume play in points leagues.
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Edward Cabrera has had isolated gems in the past that have demonstrated just how electric his arsenal can be, but what makes Friday's exciting is that it came on the heels of another against the Phillies in which he allowed no runs on three hits with one walk and six strikeouts in seven innings. As far as I can tell, he simply did a better job of locating his pitches in those two starts, which has always been the central issue for him. Of course, there's no reason to presume it's a permanent change, and I absolutely wouldn't trust him for his next turn against the Dodgers. But if he ends this year with a full head of steam, Cabrera will have renewed sleeper appeal for 2025. His arsenal is electric, as I've mentioned.
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Michael Busch has run hot and cold during his rookie season and looks to finish the year on a high note with a big weekend performance that saw him go 6 for 10 with three home runs. It may not make him so usable for this upcoming week (Sept. 16-22), given the four left-handers on the schedule for the Cubs, but it does offer some reassurance that he's on the right track. His forward-facing numbers haven't been so great in the second half even though his average exit velocity has gone from 89.2 to 90.4 mph and his strikeout rate from 31.0 to 25.3 percent as compared to the first half. A strong finish combined with those longer trends would make me pretty bullish on Busch heading into 2025.
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Victor Robles' weekend may have ended with an injury that will cost him some time (details are still unknown), but as with Michael Busch, his inclusion here is more a comment on his 2025 value than his rest-of-season value. After going 6 for 13 with three stolen bases over the weekend, Robles is now batting .463 (19 for 41) with eight steals in September and .329 (55 for 167) with three homers and 21 steals in the second half. The 27-year-old was once a bigger prospect than Juan Soto in the Nationals system, and while his skill set clearly isn't on that level, he has stopped hitting so many weak grounders this year, putting him in better position to get the most out of his speed. The Mariners are clearly all-in, having signed him to a two-year extension in August, and while I doubt he's a .300 hitter long-term, he could be like an outfield version of Nico Hoerner next year.
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More than anything Friday, Clarke Schmidt showed that he's ready to take on a conventional starter's workload again. He was making only his second start after missing 3 1/2 months with a strained lat, but he lasted 86 pitches and once again demonstrated his usual velocity. In fact, the 28-year-old seems to have picked up where he left off during what's been a curiously quiet breakout, given that he's a Yankee. He has more than a strikeout per inning, a pretty good walk rate and a swinging-strike rate (12.3 percent) that would rank among the top 20 qualifiers. His next matchup is a favorable one against the Yankees, but even if you don't see fit to use him then, you won't want to forget about him for 2025.
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Saturday's start was a microcosm of Tyler Anderson's entire second half. He had no trouble missing bats, nearly equaling a season high with 20 swinging strikes, and yet the overall results were just ... blah. Heading into the break, the Angels' lone All-Star representative had a 2.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 6.2 K/9, albeit with a modest 12 percent swinging-strike rate. Since the break, he has a 4.97 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.1 K/9, albeit with an excellent 15 percent swinging-strike rate.The skill indicators have improved, but the results clearly haven't. I was counting on major regression when he was pitching to contact in the first half, but then when I saw the whiffs go up, I began singing a different tune. Turns out I had it all backward. The way Anderson's season has played out still doesn't make much sense to me, but the bottom line is that he's no longer worth using outside of deeper leagues.
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David Festa was a good strikeout pitcher in the minors (albeit with some vulnerabilities to walks and home runs), and he looked like he might be finding his footing in the majors with back-to-back strong outings on Aug. 28 and Sept. 3. Between them, he struck out 14 in 11 innings, allowing a combined four earned runs. Most encouraging was that after several abbreviated starts early in his major-league career, he was seeming to take on a more conventional workload, and as such, I recommended him for a two-start week against the Angels and Reds. Turns out he didn't make it beyond four innings in either of those starts, allowing a combined six earned runs with six walks in 7 2/3 innings. Clearly, he's still a work in progress, and there's absolutely no reason to trust him again this season.
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After a breakthrough minor-league season that saw him slash .319/.403/.608 with 24 homers in 100 games for Triple-A Reno, Adrian Del Castillo got a chance to step in for an injured Gabriel Moreno in early August and made a strong enough first impression that he became a popular pickup in two-catcher leagues. But he ended up playing sporadically and had some discouraging peripheral stats (namely the 32.2 percent strikeout rate and 87.6 mph average exit velocity) despite some solid forward-facing numbers. All in all, the performance hasn't been enough to convince me he'll be a serious part of the Diamondbacks' plans next year, and he'll no longer be this year either following Moreno's activation from the IL Sunday.
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