The year 2020 will be remembered for many things, not the least of which is me scooping up Michael Busch in every Dynasty league I was a part of.
The Dodgers drafted him 31st overall the year before, and the scouting reports were glowing, touting his hitting prowess and preternatural on-base skills. He seemed like a throwback to the sort of OPS hog that defined the Moneyball era, and I had every confidence that an organization like the Dodgers would only bolster those abilities. And seeing as he was drafted out of college, it seemed only logical that his rise to Fantasy prominence would be a rapid one.
Spoiler alert: it was decidedly not rapid. In fact, Busch hardly even sniffed the majors in the four years that followed, more because of his defensive limitations than anything he was doing at the plate. After years of resisting, the Dodgers finally decided it just wasn't going to work out with them, shipping him to the Cubs for a couple prospects of lower urgency.
And the rest is history? So it would seem. Busch heads into the new week riding a four-game home run streak. His Statcast page is decked in red, and his stat line is beginning to resemble the one he had last year at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he slashed .323/.431/.618 with 27 homers in just 98 games. Of those four home runs in four games, two in particular stand out. There was this one off Mariners reliever Ryne Stanek on Friday:
It's notable because one of the focuses for Busch this spring was catching up to fastballs high in the zone. If he can turn on 99 up there, he can turn on anything.
There was also this one off Mariners ace Luis Castillo on Sunday:
It's notable because both the Cubs and Mariners broadcasts seemed unsure whether the ball would carry over the fence because of how high Busch hit it, but it turns out he hit it so hard (108.4 mph) that it ended up landing about 15 rows beyond the fence (or 437 feet away from home plate, if you prefer).
And with that deceptively decisive blast, Busch solidified himself as the weekend's biggest riser.
I've pointed out that Busch's Statcast page is decked in red, but to put specifics on it, his average exit velocity is 92.7 mph and his max is 109.0. Those marks are basically in line with his 91.3 mph average exit velocity and 111.5 mph max at Triple-A Oklahoma City last year. His numbers there were particularly impressive because he got a chance to repeat that level. He rarely got that chance at the lower levels, often needing a couple months to adjust before taking off and then moving up. Perhaps the same is happening at the major-league level, hence the bundle of nothing he delivered in 72 at-bats for the Dodgers last season. Another big test comes next week, with the Cubs scheduled to face four lefties. They've faced only two so far, and Busch sat out one of those games. Surely, he'll be in the lineup now, and if he delivers, there may be no looking back.
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If Joe Ryan's first two starts weren't enough to make you take notice, his third Saturday rubbed your nose in the fact that, by golly, he has a legitimate secondary arsenal now. He's not just relying on the vertical approach angle of his fastball anymore. His sweeper is up 2.5 mph from a year ago, and his splitter is up 4.5 mph. Fittingly, he's getting more whiffs on both. I said before the season that he was the bust pick I was most confident in, but that confidence is gone now on account of him basically being a different pitcher.
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Colton Cowser was the talk of the Fantasy Baseball world before Busch was, seemingly overtaking Austin Hays for the starting left field job with a massive-three game series at Boston early last week. He doubled down in his return home this weekend, going 4 for 10 with two home runs and a stolen base during a three-game series against the Brewers. The most notable of those three games came Saturday. It was the Orioles' first against a left-hander since Cowser forced his way into the starting lineup, and sure enough, he remained in the lineup while Cedric Mullins took a seat. Cowser then followed up with a home run off a left-handed reliever (Hoby Milner) Sunday, so it sure seems like nothing can bring him down at the moment. The former fifth overall pick has top-20 potential in the outfield.
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Sure, he was facing a White Sox lineup that was already terrible before losing Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez to injury, but in his first start in nearly a full calendar year, Nick Lodolo flat out dominated, allowing one hit and striking out 10 in 5 2/3 innings. His velocity and pitch selection were basically the same as when we last saw him, and he was every bit the strikeout artist then that he was in this one. In fact, across 27 major-league starts, Lodolo has averaged 11.8 K/9, owing much of it to the sweeping action of his one-of-a-kind curveball. He was a popular breakout before developing the stress reaction in his leg last season, and this first start proves he should be held in the same regard now.
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MacKenzie Gore's latest outing was just the exclamation point on what was already an encouraging start to the season. His fastball is up nearly 2 mph from a year ago, and he's making better use of his secondary arsenal, most notably a changeup with a different spin and movement profile from a year ago. The 11 strikeouts tied a career high, and while they came against a bad Athletics lineup, the improvement was evident even before then. Now that there are results to back it up, Gore needs to be rostered everywhere.
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Max Meyer's first two starts were good in that he kept runs off the board and went the minimum required for a win. But he just wasn't missing many bats, and given the need to preserve his innings in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, it seemed like adequate reason to ship him out once injured starters Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera were ready to return. His third start Saturday may have quashed that idea. Against the Braves, arguably the best offense in baseball, Meyer had not just seven strikeouts but 23 swinging strikes, an obscene number. Of them, 12 came on the slider, seven on the fastball and four on the changeup, so his entire arsenal is to credit. The slider and changeup both now have better than a 40 percent whiff rate on the year. (Edit: The Marlins sent him down anyway. Boo! Hiss!)
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Back spasms prevented Yariel Rodriguez from competing for the fifth rotation spot in spring training and ensured that he wasn't fully built up for his major-league debut Saturday against the Rockies. But the 27-year-old with experience in both Cuba and Japan nonetheless showed that he deserves a longer look in the Blue Jays rotation, piling up whiffs with a fastball and slider combo that manager John Schneider described as "electric." The spin rate on both pitches was nothing short of elite -- up there with Dylan Cease, actually. There's much to be sorted out still with regard to his workload and strike-throwing ability, but with this debut, Rodriguez demands to be noticed, if nothing else.
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It's not that Andres Munoz himself did anything wrong. It's that manager Scott Servais continues to remind us he's not so much into having a set closer. He had Munoz work the eighth inning Friday rather than saving him for the ninth and did the same back on April 1. In both cases, Ryne Stanek followed Munoz for the save, which I guess gives the former Astro some low-end appeal in leagues where saves are scarce. Servais was never all-in on Paul Sewald as his closer and has basically handled the Mariners bullpen that way ever since Edwin Diaz left. It's still true Munoz is the favorite for saves, but he may come closer to 25 than 35.
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Presumed closer Jose Alvarado's past two appearances have both come in the eighth inning, including most recently Saturday against the Pirates. In both instances, right-hander Jeff Hoffman followed Alvarado in the ninth. Whether Hoffman is now the favorite for saves is difficult to say since he didn't record a save in either of those instances, but he did record a save on a day in between when Alvarado didn't pitch at all. It seems like manager Rob Thomson is playing to the situation rather than having designated roles, and the return of Orion Kerkering from the IL might limit Alvarado's opportunities further.
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Sean Manaea's first two starts offered hope that the 32-year-old had uncovered some long latent ability, having worked with Driveline Baseball this offseason to refine his sweeper and develop a new changeup grip. But he thudded so hard in his third start Saturday that it's hard to maintain that optimism. For a pitcher as established as him, the odds were longer to begin with, and while one bad start is hardly conclusive, Manaea is someone I'd be willing to let go if it was my best hope of grabbing someone like Lodolo, Gore or Meyer (in that order) off the waiver wire.
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