Pitchers are less than half the player pool in Fantasy Baseball, but I'd wager we spend a lot more time talking about them on the Fantasy Baseball Today Podcast and in this newsletter than we do hitters. In part, that's because of the day-to-day nature of these ventures – every start by a pitcher is one of, at most, 34 or so data points, but for hitters it's one of 162. There's just more to be gleaned from any given start than there is from a random hitter performance.
But it's also because pitchers are just a lot harder to figure out. They are constantly tinkering with their arsenals and adding or losing velocity in a way that makes it genuinely impossible to consistently identify a pitcher's true talent level. It changes in any given start, and it seems like any pitcher can go from irrelevant to mattering with just a few small tweaks, like a new pitch, an extra tick of velocity, or other profile changes.
Something like what we're seeing with Joey Cantillo, who added velocity and a new cutter in June and started throwing his curveball a whole lot more, the kinds of tangible changes that, if not confirming he will be good forever, do at least tell us he'll be different moving forward. Coming off two nine-strikeout efforts, Cantillo wasn't quite as sharp Wednesday against the Rangers, but I still think there's plenty to be intrigued with, as the aforementioned changes were still there. He just struggled with his command, walking five in five innings to fall short of the quality start. I don't think Cantillo is an ace moving forward, but I still remain pretty interested in what he's doing right now.
But it's especially tough when a pitcher turns a corner but there isn't a tangible change to point to. No new pitch or tweaked grip or velocity change, something you can really grab onto and say, "See, this is why he's suddenly a new pitcher." The toughest ones are the situations where a pitcher just suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere, just starts pitching better. Enter Tatsuya Imai.
I was in on Imai coming into the season after a very successful career in Japan. He didn't have a traditional arsenal, but I actually saw that as a reason to be optimistic – weird is often a good thing for pitchers, because hitters tend to perform worse against pitches and pitching styles they see less of. Imai, with that funky, backwards slider, seemed like a good candidate.
And I was even willing to forgive his early-season struggles, tied as they were to Imai's overall trouble adjusting to life in his new home country and league. Giving him the benefit of the doubt for his slow start made sense, especially when he started to settle in and struck out 21 batters with just one walk over his most recent two starts entering Wednesday. There wasn't a change in Imai's arsenal or approach; he wasn't throwing harder or changing his arm slot; he was just pitching better, and I wanted to believe it would stick.
It certainly did not, at least not Wednesday. Facing the Twins, Imai was chased after just four outs. He walked five, allowed four hits, and was tagged for five earned runs while allowing a couple of homers, looking every bit as bad as he did early on in the season.
But here's what's especially frustrating as an analyst and Fantasy player: It's still possible those two double-digit strikeout efforts represented a turning point for Imai. Bad starts happen, even for good pitchers – we've got some thoughts on some later in today's newsletter – and it's at least possible that was all this was for Imai. Just one bad start.
But he hasn't earned that benefit of the doubt. Quite the opposite, as the good starts are clearly the outlier for Imai. I want to have faith that he'll figure it out and this is just another bump in the road, but it would be just that: Faith, not something I can tangibly point to to make it worth believing. It might be true, but our assumption after this start should be that Imai just isn't very good right now. It's a bummer, but even after all the optimism from his previous two starts, I'd be willing to drop Imai today.
Pre-game Lineup Card
Here's what you might have missed from CBSSports.com's MLB coverage in recent days:
Prospects Report. The Rockies have some big names at Triple-A who are knocking on the door, but they might not have room for them until the All-Star break. Scott White breaks it down.
Week 15 Trade Values. I've updated my rankings and trade values for the rest of the season. See who has moved here.
Rankings Movers. Luis Garcia is having one of the best stretches of his career, but there's only so high he can move in the rankings, Scott says.
Midseason Awards. You know Shohei Ohtani is the NL MVP. Who else is tracking for the big awards at the mid-season point?
MLB Trends. Paul Skenes is in a slump (at least relative to his own greatness). Mike Axisa digs into what's going on with Skenes and more in his look at some of the biggest recent trends.
Juiced ball is back? Offense is way up lately, and the baseball may be the cause. Eno Sarris got a statement from MLB acknowledging some changes to the manufacturing process of the baseball, but what it means moving forward remains to be seen.
Hitting the Wire
The top waiver-wire targets from Wednesday's action:
Troy Melton, SP, Tigers (64%) – It took a few starts, but Melton is officially locked in. Melton made a mechanical adjustment last week that led to a spike in velocity and he held on to most of that Wednesday, averaging 96.5 mph with his four-seamer, and the whole arsenal was working off of that. He struck out seven Yankees while allowing two hits and a walk in 6.1 scoreless innings and now has 13 strikeouts to one walk in 12.1 innings since that mechanical tweak. The walk rate has been excellent all along and he's doing an excellent job limiting damage on contact, going back to last season, so with the strikeout rate starting to climb, it's getting easier to buy into Drohan. He should be near universally rostered after the past two starts, especially with SPaRP eligibility in points leagues.
Shane Drohan, SP, Brewers (32%) – The biggest issue with Drohan is that it just isn't clear if he's going to stay in the rotation long term. The Brewers have so many viable pitchers, and one of them, Logan Henderson, is likely to come back from the IL next week, so Drohan might lose his rotation spot. But if he doesn't, I think he's a pretty good pick up, with a 3.64 ERA and 31 strikeouts to 10 walks in 30.1 innings over his past six starts after Wednesday's solid one against the Reds. The Brewers are very careful with his workload, which limits the upside, but Drohan looks like he could be a really useful player if the Brewers give him the chance. It helps that he looks to be a two-start pitcher for next week, though that's no sure thing with Henderson's return looming.
Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Braves (17%) – I wasn't sure Lopez had much left when they moved him back into the rotation, but Wednesday was pretty impressive. Despite throwing five full innings and 69 pitches – his highest pitch count since mid-April – his velocity was actually up 1.0-2.2 mph across his entire arsenal in this one. He generated 13 swinging strikes on those 69 pitches – six each on the slider and four-seamer, one with the curveball – and generally looked better than he has in a long time. Whether that'll stick is a different question, but he looked like he belonged in the rotation and back on Fantasy radars in this one.
Dean Kremer, SP, Orioles (18%) – I've long thought Kremer was kind of underrated. He isn't an ace, by any means, but he's a really solid pitcher who was flashing increased upside earlier in the season before the quad injury that landed him on the IL. He made his return Tuesday and continued to lead with his splitter, which remains his best pitch. Kremer struck out four over six one-run innings and he's up to 20 strikeouts in 17 innings on the season. If he can sustain that uptick in strikeout rate, I think Kremer can be useful in a "high-3.00s ERA" kind of way.
Spencer Miles, RP, Blue Jays (5%) – I'm not sure what the plan is with Miles, but the Blue Jays still need rotation help, he's starting to get stretched out, and he might be good. He tossed three innings on 46 pitches and struck out five Wednesday as a bulk reliever, consistently sitting in the high-90s with his four-seamer. This is more of a name to watch than one to add outside of AL-only leagues, but if the Blue Jays show a willingness to use Miles like a starter, he could be pretty interesting, because the stuff is there.
Three Up, Three Down
Three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.
Three Up
Trea Turner is heating up
Trea Turner's numbers are down pretty much across the board this season, and seeing as he's a 33-year-old (one who primarily relies on athleticism for his productivity), it's not exactly unfair to worry that this is more than just a cold spell. Well, he went 2 for 5 with his 10th homer of the season Wednesday and continues to be red hot, hitting .350 with three homers and an OPS north of .950 over his past 14 games, with all three homers coming in his past three games. It's a relatively small sample of success for a guy who had a sub-.600 OPS as recently as June 15, but his struggles to that point also represent a relatively small sample size compared to his entire career, so I've always been inclined to believe Turner would turn it around. And it appears he has.
Taj Bradley flashes the upside
Cards on the table, I'm not a believer in Bradley's. His command has just never been good enough, and buying into his hot streaks has led to Fantasy players getting burnt every single time so far. So I can't say I have a ton of faith that this time will be different. But he is on a nice little run of late, with 22 strikeouts in 17 innings over his past three starts after he put down 11 by strikeout Wednesday. Inconsistency has defined Bradley's career, and he's always had the raw stuff to put up impressive starts and even stretches. Will this be the one that sticks? I'm extremely skeptical, but this was too good of a start to ignore. There are always fewer reliable pitchers than the amount we need for every Fantasy league, so you'll always have to rely on someone you don't trust. Just don't make Bradley a key part of your plans at any point.
Michael McGreevy keeps shining
Hey, another great start from a pitcher I have no faith in. McGreevy limited the Braves to just one run over six innings, his fifth quality start in his past six, to lower his season-long ERA to 3.12. He's been excellent this season, but here's the thing: There's basically no reason to believe it's for real. McGreevy is an extreme pitch-to-contact pitcher with pretty good control, and that kind of pitcher can make this work for a while, especially backed up by a really good defense, which the Cardinals definitely have. But he also has a 4.31 FIP and 5.59 xERA, and I don't care how good the defense behind you is, you're not outrunning those numbers by that margin for very long. The bill always comes due with this kind of pitcher – remember my warnings about Bryce Elder – so use McGreevy for the time being, but don't be afraid to cut him loose at the first sign of struggles. He could undo a lot of the good work he's done for you with one or two bad starts.
Three Down
Is there something wrong with Paul Skenes?
Given his sterling track record, I find it hard to even muster up the desire to look too far into it. But "I trust Paul Skenes intrinsically" isn't a satisfactory answer (even if it's true) and sometimes pitchers genuinely do just lose it without much warning, so it's worth at least looking into it after Skenes struggled through arguably the worst start of his career Wednesday against the Phillies, who tagged him for seven earned runs in just four innings of work. So, what's gone wrong for Skenes? Well, in this one, his fastball velocity was down to 96.3 mph, tied for the lowest mark in a start in his career, which isn't great. That hasn't really been the issue leading up to this start, though his Stuff+ over his past nine starts is down to 98, a shockingly pedestrian number for a pitcher of Skenes' caliber. He still has 63 strikeouts to 15 walks in 47 innings in that span, and his Stuff+ rating wasn't much better even when he was pitching well, so it's hard to make too much sense of this one way or the other. Assuming Skenes is healthy, I think he'll figure it out and this will go down as a relatively minor blip in his career, but Skenes does appear to have lost something real here that might be enough to knock him down a peg and out of the elite tier of starting pitchers. I'm not quite there yet, but I can't totally dismiss it out of hand, as much as I'd like to.
Peyton Tolle didn't have it
As a general rule, I have a decent amount of faith in Tolle, but Wednesday's start was ugly. Alarmingly so. In an admittedly tough matchup against the Nationals, Tolle was tagged for six runs over three innings of work, and he just didn't have any answers. His usually elite fastball generated a bunch of whiffs, but it also got hit hard, and he tried to counter that by nearly doubling his cutter usage, but it didn't really help. And Tolle's velocity was down in a big way during what was ultimately a disastrous fourth inning where he threw 14 pitches, averaged 93.6 mph with his four-seamer – 2.4 mph down from his season average – and was chased without recording an out. Tolle remains extremely fastball reliant (74.1% of his pitches are either four-seamers or sinkers, and 16.7% are cutters), and while those pitches are mostly good, only the four-seamer is truly elite, and it leaves him with a slim margin for error. Maybe he'll develop the rest of his arsenal, but as things stand, on those days when the fastball isn't working for whatever reason, Tolle could look rough.
I'm giving up on Mackenzie Gore
As hard as it can be, you must resist the urge to fall for Gore. Believe me, I've been there. When he's on, he's utterly dominant, but he rarely stays on for long, and at this point, I think you're better off just writing him off entirely. Gore was tagged for five earned runs in five innings Wednesday against the Guardians of all teams, despite seven strikeouts to just one walk. Gore does a lot well. He misses bats with much of his arsenal and his control isn't great – it's the command that is often the issue, leading him to get hit hard when things go wrong. The peripherals aren't bad here, but I just don't have any faith in Gore ever putting it together long enough to be worth trusting. At this point, I wouldn't mind dropping Gore the next time something interesting comes along.
Extra Innings
Mickey Moniak needed a good one and he got it
Moniak has been pretty quiet since coming back from the IL, and given his very limited track record of MLB success, I wouldn't blame you if you were worried – I've never been a big believer myself, so you would be in good company! He needed a good game and he got it Wednesday against the Marlins – and he did it in kind of a funny way. Usually, when we talk about players following short of the cycle, it's because they came up an extra-base hit short, and seeing as those are inherently rare events, it's not something I'm usually interested in giving credit for. But Moniak did it the hard way, going three for four with a homer, double, and triple in the first five innings. Moniak gets a single in roughly 15% of his at-bats at Coors Field, so while it's not necessarily super likely, you like his chances. He couldn't do it, but he still got the big game he needed after going 3 for 23 since coming off the IL last week. That's back-to-back games with a homer for Moniak, who I do expect to at least remain a viable option whenever the Rockies are at home.
