You may think you can settle in now that the trade deadline has come and gone, but no-no, another milestone is fast approaching. Yes, Friday marks the point when only 45 days remain in the regular season.
Why is that important? You should already know the answer by now. The latest CBA (which, ahem, dates back to 2022) introduced new draft pick incentives to combat service-time manipulation, namely by compelling teams to include rookies on their opening day roster. These incentives are only in play if the player in question is indeed a rookie, though, so the trick for maximum exploitation is to call him up late enough in the season that he carries his rookie status into the next season. Forty-five days it is!
Now, we probably won't see anything as transparent as all the big call-ups happening on the same day, but we will likely see several this weekend and then maybe another rush of promotions when rosters expand on Sept. 1. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, though. For now, let's consider the prospects who've most likely been held back for this precise moment.
In short, they have to be of a certain caliber. Only prospects who appear on more than one of the major preseason top 100 lists qualify for the draft pick incentives, and then in order to make good on those incentives, they have to place high enough in awards voting (whether it's Rookie of the Year, MVP or Cy Young) during their pre-arbitration years. If they aren't held in universal high regard and/or don't have a realistic chance of competing for those awards, then there isn't much point in adhering to such milestones.
I'm sensing just from the number of call-ups in between the trade deadline and the 45-day marker this year that teams are coming to recognize the improbability of a draft pick payoff and are beginning to adhere less strictly to it in general, but that's mere conjecture (as all of this is).
Mainly, I want to stress that the best prospects are the most subject to this milestone, so they're the ones that I care to emphasize here. I gave some thought to highlighting Marlins outfielders Kemp Alderman and Cam Cannarella, Cubs catcher Owen Ayers, Nationals third baseman Yohandy Morales, and Giants third baseman Parks Harber -- and we may see them all before the year is done -- but I don't think this 45-day milestone will have anything to do with when they arrive.
Again, my emphasis here is on higher-end prospects than them, even if they're less likely overall to get the call. I'm saying there's at least a chance for these 15 and have grouped them by how probable I think that chance is.
HALFWAY EXPECTED
1. Kade Anderson, SP, Mariners
2026 minors: 10-1, 1.13 ERA, 0.65, 87 2/3 IP, 12 BB, 128 K
I've been teasing it for months and think the Mariners have finally reached the tipping point with Kade Anderson, their first-round pick from a year ago who has been next to untouchable at Double-A. Only Double-A, you say? Yes, but the Mariners have a history of promoting their best pitchers directly from there so that they skip the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, with George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller being three such examples. Ah, but don't they have a full rotation? Yes, but they were going six-man before trading Luis Castillo and would likely revert to it to accommodate Anderson.
2. Walker Jenkins, OF, Twins
2025 minors: .286 BA (308 AB), 10 HR, 17 SB, .850 OPS, 50 BB, 76 K
2026 minors: .300 BA (237 AB), 8 HR, 13 SB, .888 OPS, 33 BB, 43 K
Injuries, including a shoulder sprain just this year, have slowed Walker Jenkins' ascent to the majors, but the fifth pick in the 2023 draft has nonetheless reached a point where he has nothing more to prove at Triple-A. That's especially true if you dig into the data -- namely the plate discipline and exit velocity readings, through which he just looks like a different class of hitter. The Twins, who are desperately trying to hang in the playoff race after buying at the trade deadline, could use a jolt of offense and can accommodate another outfielder.
3. Franklin Arias, SS, Red Sox
2025 minors: .278 BA (479 AB), 8 HR, 12 SB, .723 OPS, 38 BB, 53 K
2026 minors: .315 BA (340 AB), 22 HR, 5 SB, .973 OPS, 42 BB, 59 K
As implausible as it might have been even just a month ago, the 20-year-old Franklin Arias finds himself at the precipice of the majors, having made quick work of Triple-A after enjoying a massive power breakthrough at Double-A. The Red Sox's July surge has put them in the thick of the playoff race, and an infusion of youthful energy might be enough to see them through. Arias could slot in at shortstop right now, but he's even been making some starts at second base recently, perhaps in anticipation of Trevor Story's return.
4. Quinn Mathews, SP, Cardinals
2025 minors: 4-7, 3.73 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 99 IP, 74 BB, 115 K
2026 minors: 5-4, 3.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 95 IP, 58 BB, 115 K
2026 majors: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Quinn Mathews is the only one of these 15 to appear in the majors already, but it was for just one day, which means he'll have to wait until 44 days remain in the season rather than 45. Whatever. The left-hander had a good enough first showing on Aug. 1 that most of us anticipated him sticking around, but the Cardinals decided to go with Hunter Dobbins instead. You have to figure that both he and Matthew Liberatore are on thin ice, though. Mathews can be his own worst enemy at times, like when he walked six in his return to Triple-A on Friday, but he's been mostly excellent since about the midway point.
5. Joshua Baez, OF, Cardinals
2025 minors: .287 BA (418 AB), 20 HR, 54 SB, .884 OPS, 59 BB, 103 K
2026 minors: .254 BA (402 AB), 33 HR, 20 SB, .895 OPS, 36 BB, 133 K
Maybe the Cardinals really are playing the service time game with Joshua Baez, in keeping with the premise of this article, and that's why he has yet to fill the obvious vacancy created by the Lars Nootbaar trade, but president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has at times expressed some dyspepsia over the 23-year-old's 29 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A, a sharp decline from his 21 percent rate between two stops last year. This same organization forewent the opportunity to promote JJ Wetherholt down the stretch last season and could do the same with Baez if his development is the priority.
6. Charlie Condon, 1B, Rockies
2025 minors: .268 BA (365 AB), 14 HR, .820 OPS, 52 BB, 112 K
2026 minors: .281 BA (374 AB), 22 HR, .939 OPS, 58 BB, 112 K
The season-long debate over whether Charlie Condon or Zac Veen would fill the Rockies' next outfield opening ended Tuesday with the promotion of Veen, which made sense both because he was already on the 40-man roster and was the one surging at the time of need. Condon was making a case for a roster spot as far back as spring training, though, and seemingly has nothing more to prove at Triple-A, so the reason he's only sixth on this list is because of all the redundancies on the Rockies roster. It's not even clear that Veen will get to play all that regularly.
7. James Tibbs, OF, Dodgers
2025 minors: .243 BA (457 AB), 20 HR, .802 OPS, 90 BB, 120 K
2026 minors: .293 BA (399 AB), 22 HR, .956 OPS, 82 BB, 113 K
James Tibbs came out of the gate hot to establish himself as a top 100 prospect but has mostly treaded water since then, hitting just five of his 22 home runs since the start of June. It's hardly a foregone conclusion he's coming up, in other words, but it would be a nice reward for what's clearly a strong season overall. If the Dodgers are experiencing any heartburn whatsoever over Teoscar Hernandez, who has underwhelmed in his age-33 season, Tibbs would be the obvious choice to spell him.
8. Seaver King, SS, Nationals
2025 minors: .244 BA (505 AB), 6 HR, 30 SB, .631 OPS, 32 BB, 116 K
2026 minors: .309 BA (304 AB), 12 HR, 10 SB, .905 OPS, 36 BB, 71 K
Luis Garcia's move to first base (and eventual departure to the Yankees at the trade deadline) created a vacancy at second base that Nasim Nunez probably isn't meant to fill, for as much defensive value as he provides. The Nationals have a number of quality middle infield prospects in the pipeline, and the closest to fully baked is Seaver King. The former first-rounder has a high chase rate but grades out well otherwise and has come back from an oblique strain batting .333 (12 for 36) with two homers, three doubles and a stolen base in nine games.
RELATIVE LONG SHOTS
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins
2025 minors: .269 BA (208 AB), 6 HR, 10 SB, .840 OPS, 55 BB, 85 K
2026 minors: .263 BA (114 AB), 6 HR, 3 SB, .901 OPS, 30 BB, 43 K
I mentioned that injuries have slowed Walker Jenkins' ascent to the majors. The Twins' next-best bet for outfield help, Emmanuel Rodriguez, is an even starker case, having played no more than 65 games in any of the past three seasons. He's also just now returning to the Triple-A lineup after rehabilitating from thumb surgery, so a promotion now is probably too quick of a turnaround. But a couple weeks from now, particularly if he picks up where he left off at Triple-A? The Twins could use a little more thump, and Rodriguez, unlike Jenkins, is already on the 40-man roster.
10. Sebastian Walcott, SS, Rangers
2025 minors: .255 BA (474 AB), 13 HR, 32 SB, .741 OPS, 70 BB, 108 K
2026 minors: .328 BA (58 AB), 4 HR, 4 SB, 1.019 OPS, 5 BB, 16 K
Sebastian Walcott has enjoyed some best-in-baseball-type prospect buzz the past couple years, but it was shelved when he underwent a UCL repair this spring. He came back in mid-July looking like a fully realized hitter who could provide an immediate boon to a Rangers team fighting for a playoff spot, but then he landed on the IL again with a concussion. He has yet to appear anywhere but DH this year, which would need to change in order for him to get the call, and we still haven't seen him take an at-bat at Triple-A. The odds of a 2026 promotion are ever lengthening.
11. Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers
2025 minors: .250 BA (360 AB), 12 HR, 32 SB, .791 OPS, 82 BB, 91 K
2026 minors: .314 BA (407 AB), 21 HR, 29 SB, .968 OPS, 68 BB, 69 K
Were the Dodgers to try someone other than Teoscar Hernandez in left field, surely the choice would be James Tibbs rather than Josue De Paula given that he's a level higher and a couple years older. But I don't know. The Dodgers obviously don't have to cut the same financial corners that other organizations do -- they've made that abundantly clear over the past few years -- so they can shoot for maximum impact, which De Paula seems better equipped to provide.
12. Jesus Made, SS, Brewers
2025 minors: .285 BA (453 AB), 6 HR, 47 SB, .792 OPS, 67 BB, 108 K
2026 minors: .283 BA (396 AB), 13 HR, 32 SB, .821 OPS, 49 BB, 63 K
How crazy would this be? On the one hand, Jesus Made is still in Double-A and an age that ends in "teen." On the other hand, the Brewers allowed Jackson Chourio to make a similar leap two years ago. They failed to make a big splash at the trade deadline and, thus, remain underdogs despite having the league's best record. They've gotten little production from the left side of their infield this year and now may be without Brice Turang (sprained thumb) for some stretch of time. Jesus Made might be exactly the Hail Mary they need.
THE LONGEST OF LONG SHOTS
13. Leo De Vries, SS, Athletics
2025 minors: .255 BA (455 AB), 15 HR, 11 SB, .806 OPS, 66 BB, 107 K
2026 minors: .292 BA (360 AB), 13 HR, 33 SB, .841 OPS, 48 BB, 89 K
Another 19-year-old shortstop at Double-A, Leo De Vries is in a similar spot to Made and is generally regarded as the only one in competition with him for the top overall prospect claim. And he's actually been the more productive of the two this year, however slightly, which is why we at least have to entertain the possibility of him coming up as well. But because the Athletics are competing for nothing while the Brewers are competing for everything, it seems far less likely.
14. Ethan Salas, C, Padres
2025 minors: .188 BA (32 AB), 1 2B, 2 SB, 6 BB, 5 K
2026 minors: .291 BA (299 AB), 9 HR, 14 SB, .811 OPS, 39 BB, 55 K
This season has been a resurgent one for Ethan Salas, who rocketed up prospect rank lists as a 17-year-old three years ago but then struggled with injuries and inconsistency thereafter. He's still well ahead of the developmental curve as a 20-year-old at Triple-A and has finally begun to realize his offensive potential. Even so, it would be a stretch for the Padres to introduce such a young player at such an important position in the middle of a pennant race, particularly since incumbent Luis Campusano is performing adequately enough.
15. Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners
2025 minors: .241 BA (490 AB), 32 HR, .858 OPS, 83 BB, 169 K
2026 minors: .246 BA (390 AB), 32 HR, .917 OPS, 69 BB, 146 K
Lazaro Montes recently moved up to Triple-A and has gone on the sort of run there, homering seven times in just 27 games, that demands the big club's notice. Then again, power has never been lacking for the 21-year-old. Everything else has, and it's telling that even with his strong work at Triple-A, he's still striking out 33 percent of the time there. The Mariners will probably just leave well enough alone, then, particularly since they don't have a need in their outfield right now.
