zach-neto.jpg

This is now the fifth part of my State of the Position series, and we've finally gotten to the part of the positional landscape where, for 2025 at least, I don't really have to make any excuses for a position. Shortstop is the deepest position in Fantasy, to a point where it's actually overkill. 

Four of the top-10 players in Fantasy in 2024 were shortstops, along with six of the top 30, 10 of the top 50, and 19 of the top 100. Of those 19, only two will be losing shortstop eligibility, while four will be losing eligibility elsewhere – that includes Elly De La Cruz and Gunnar Henderson losing 3B eligibility and Mookie Betts losing 2B eligibility, in a real "the rich get richer" scenario. 

You want power? Well, five shortstops hit 30 homers last season, and 13 hit at least 20; by comparison, only one 2B-eligible player in 2025 had even 25 homers last season, and only four had more than 20. Want speed? Well, two different SS-eligible players had 40-plus steals, eight had at least 30, and 15 had at least 20; only six 3B-eligible players got to 20. 

There was a time when shortstop and second base were roughly equal offensively; in 2004, for example, shortstops collectively posted a .730 OPS, while second baseman had a .744 mark. Now? Shortstop is one of the best-hitting positions in baseball, collectively sporting a .728 OPS in 2024, just short of the mark right fielders and first basemen put up and 44 points clear of second base. 

There might be 20-plus shortstops I would rank inside of the top-12 at second base at this point and maybe 15 who would be top-12 third basemen. But that doesn't mean this is a position you can go into your drafts next year planning to wait on because while it is much deeper with starting caliber options than any other position in Fantasy, waiting to draft a shortstop means you are going to be passing on some of the most impactful players in Fantasy. You can do that, if you want to, but look at it like this: Corey Seager legitimately might have more upside than anyone at second base these days, and he's probably going to be drafted behind at least a few of them. Do you really want to pass up on that kind of impact bat because Carlos Correa will be available later on?

No, while shortstop is the one position you don't necessarily have to plan for, you still shouldn't plan on punting it. You need superstars, and shortstop has more of them than any position except for outfield (where you have to fill at least three lineup spots). And, with so many shortstops likely to earn eligibility somewhere else once the season starts, there's really no such thing as having "too many" of them. 

With today's shortstop piece, we're now done with the infield positions in this State of the Position series, so we'll be moving on to the outfield later in the week – a position that suddenly feels much stronger than it did this time last year, at least for three-OF leagues. But before we get to everything else you need to know about the shortstop position heading into the offseason and into 2025, catch up on Scott White and I's position-by-position breakdowns here: 

Early 2025 Rankings

State of the Position 

Alright, now let's get to arguably the most important position in Fantasy: 

2024 Shortstop Review

2024 top-12 finishers

  1. Bobby Witt: 0.332 - 125 - 32 - 109 - 31
  2. Elly De La Cruz: 0.259 - 105 - 25 - 76 - 67
  3. Gunnar Henderson: 0.281 - 118 - 37 - 92 - 21
  4. Francisco Lindor: 0.274 - 107 - 33 - 91 - 29
  5. Willy Adames: 0.251 - 93 - 32 - 112 - 21
  6. Jackson Merrill: 0.292 - 77 - 24 - 90 - 16
  7. Trea Turner: 0.295 - 88 - 21 - 62 - 19
  8. Zachary Neto: 0.249 - 70 - 23 - 77 - 30
  9. Brice Turang: 0.254 - 72 - 7 - 57 - 50
  10. C.J. Abrams: 0.246 - 79 - 20 - 65 - 31
  11. Mookie Betts: 0.289 - 75 - 19 - 75 - 16
  12. Oneil Cruz: 0.259 - 72 - 21 - 76 - 22

Of the top-12 finishers in 2024, only Merrill and Turang won't be SS eligible in 2025 -- and I wouldn't want to start Turang at shortstop anyway. You can see the strength of the position here pretty clearly, as Cruz would have been No. 6 at first base, No. 5 at second base, and No. 10 at third base. You might use Cruz or Betts in the outfield, depending on how your draft shakes out, but those are actually the only multi-eligible players among this group for 2025, surprisingly. 

Biggest Breakout from 2024

Zach Neto, Angels

By virtue of being a fast-moving college pick – and, let's face it, by virtue of being picked by the Angels – I think most viewed Neto as a relatively low-upside young player. But his 23 homers and 30 steals in 2024 sure proved that wrong. The question now is how much of what he accomplished in 2024 was real. Neto doesn't hit the ball consistently hard, but he's not a slap hitter either – he was in the 76th percentile in max exit velocity and in the 55th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected ISO, and barrel rate. He took small steps forward in his underlying plate discipline, pushing his contact rate closer to league average, and his pull-heavy approach helped him make the most of his merely solid raw power. A step backward wouldn't surprise me in 2025, but I also get the feeling there just isn't much faith in what he did, which could make him a decent bargain in 2025, even if you don't expect a repeat. 

Biggest Bust from 2024

Bo Bichette, Blue Jays (for now)

Honestly, I'm not sure there is even another contender at the position, which is part of why shortstop feels especially strong right now. Of the top 12 in ADP in 2024, only Nico Hoerner, Ha-Seong Kim, and Corey Seager failed to finish in the top 12, and injuries account for Seager's absence; Hoerner was still a top-70 player overall, and Kim was drafted 45 picks after Bichette and still out-earned him despite a disappointing season. Bichette was clearly the worst pick among the position last year. 

Bichette was a popular bust pick for 2024, but I don't think anyone saw this kind of disaster coming – after five years of hitting .299/.340/.487, Bichette collapsed to a .225/.277/.322 line. He dealt with neck spasms early in the season and then missed much of the rest of the year dealing with a calf strain that just never went away, so I think it's fair to mostly give him a pass for this season. But not entirely – he had a .629 OPS before the calf injury ever became a problem, so I'm not sure we can entirely explain it away that easily. I believe a bounceback was almost inevitable before the injury, but I guess I can't say it with 100% certainty. I'll be buying the dip on Bichette, personally. 

Biggest rankings movers from 2024 to 2025

Up: Willy Adames, Brewers*; Zachary Neto, Angels; Xavier Edwards, Marlins
*Free agent

I wrote about Adames as a bust candidate last week, so I don't need to go into too much detail here. But I don't expect a repeat of his 21 steals or his MLB record 13 three-run homers, so I won't be paying face value for what he did in 2024, so we'll see where the price ends up; Adames is my No. 10 shortstop in my first run through rankings, but I'm considering moving Bichette ahead of him depending on where Adames signs. 

As for Edwards, well, he wasn't even on Fantasy radars before hitting .328/.397/.423 with the Marlins in 70 games last season. He's probably stretched a bit thin defensively as a shortstop, and we'd prefer him be second base eligible for Fantasy, so hopefully, Miami moves him there; he would go from just a speed-focused CI option as an SS-only player to a probable top-12 option at 2B. I don't think he'll hit .328 again, but I do think he will be a terrific source of steals and could hit something like .275, giving him a similar outlook to someone like Nico Hoerner. 

Down: Bo Bichette, Blue Jays; Ha-Seong Kim

Kim took a big step back in 2024, though it's not like he was actually much worse – Kim's .316 xwOBA in 2024 was actually slightly better than his .313 mark from 2023. He just overperformed significantly in 2023, which was pretty obvious to anyone who knew what to look for. Now he's coming back from shoulder surgery as he heads into free agency, and it's not 100% clear at this point if Kim will be ready for Opening Day. Kim could be good for 15 homers and 30 steals again if he's healthy, but given concerns about the shoulder, it's hard to say he should be drafted as a starting option in Fantasy right now. Signing somewhere he might play some second base would actually be the best possible outcome for Kim's value in 2025 and beyond. 

Offseason preview

Who needs an upgrade most? 

Shortstop is actually a fairly big area of need for a surprising number of would-be contenders. Here are the five who could most use an upgrade: 

  • Tigers – This one is not so simple, what with the Tigers still owing Javier Baez $73 million over the next three seasons. Walking away from that kind of outstanding money is almost as hard to stomach as having Baez and his .610 OPS since joining the Tigers in the lineup every day. 
  • Guardians – Brayan Rocchio was a playoff hero for the Guardians, and maybe they believe he can parlay that into a big 2025 regular season. But he hit .206/.298/.316 this season, so I would hope a would-be contender will look for something better. 
  • Braves – Orlando Arcia was a pleasant surprise in 2023, a year when absolutely everything went right for the Braves. He was one of the worst everyday hitters in baseball in 2024 and isn't a strong enough defender to justify keeping in the lineup, so I would expect them to make a strong push for an upgrade, especially with little committed to Arcia. Coming off a year where so much went wrong, the Braves probably can't afford to have a zero in the lineup again. 
  • Rays – The Rays got pretty good defense from the shortstop position, and that might be all they care about. But their shortstops also hit just .221/.294/.310 last season, and I'm not sure there's much room for the likes of Jose Caballero or Taylor Walls to improve on that. The Rays do have a top prospect who was very good at Double-A, but as we'll note later, this is an organization that doesn't generally do the leap from Double-A to the majors, so that might not be an option for Opening Day, at least. 
  • Diamondbacks – This was supposed to be Jordan Lawlar's position by now, but he was limited to just 23 games in 2024 after playing just 119 in 2023. He's already reached the majors, so maybe they opt to turn to him on Opening Day; if not, Geraldo Perdomo is probably fine enough to hold it down until Lawlar is ready. 

Top impending free agents

*Has a mutual option he is likely to turn down
**Has a club option for $5 million

Among this group, only Adames and Kim seem like real starting options, and Kim is coming off right shoulder surgery that has his availability for Opening Day in question. Adams will likely be the jewel of the free agent market coming off a career year as a 29-year-old, and he has hit .244/.323/.457 since joining the Brewers while averaging around 4 WAR per 150 games. I have him as a bust for 2025 in Fantasy, but if he lands in the right spot, he could be an obvious upgrade and a must-start Fantasy option. One I'd love to see: Boston, with a move to second base, where his glove might play a bit better after a down 2024. 

Trade candidates

A Bichette trade seems so obvious that the only way I can see it not going down is if he was just so bad in 2024 that the Blue Jays want to give him a chance to rebuild his value first. He's a free agent after this season, and it just comes down to whether the Blue Jays can get something they think is worth making the move amid a three-season decline. If it were me making the decision, I'd hold on to Bichette and see if he can get off to a good start in 2025, but an offseason trade feels inevitable. 

Trading a 24-year-old Abrams when he isn't really making much money doesn't seem like an obvious move for the Nationals, except for that whole "They benched him for the final week and a half of the season" thing. Abrams clearly let the organization down, and whether he'll be able to rebuild that trust remains to be seen. The Nationals don't really have any great shortstop prospects on the way up, but that may not be Abrams' long-term defensive home anyway, so that might not impact the decision-making. I'd say this one is a pretty long shot, but it's not impossible – and some smart teams should absolutely be sniffing around to see if there's a buy-low opportunity for Abrams. 

Top 2025 prospects to know

  • Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox – Mayer has probably been surpassed by a couple of other prospects in his own organization, but that's hardly a knock on him – he's a top-20 prospect in baseball by pretty much everyone's estimation. He cut his strikeout rate down to 19.7% as a 21-year-old in Double-A would have made his Triple-A debut if not for a back injury. That might have slowed his ascension some, but there's still a chance for an Opening Day MLB debut if he impresses this spring. He's been susceptible to spin in his career, but if the contact improvements he showed in 2024 are real, there isn't much to knock in his profile. Of course, it might also be the kind of glaring flaw that doesn't really get exposed until he faces the major-leagues, like we saw with someone like Jarred Kelenic. 
  • Carson Williams, Rays – He's one of the very best prospects in baseball at any position, but there are multiple reasons to think he may not be ready to make an impact in 2025. For one thing, there's the Rays of it all – they want their prospects to really prove it at Triple-A in a way few franchises do these days, so there's a realistic chance we just don't see him at all in 2025. He also has serious hit tool concerns, striking out 28.5% of the time in Double-A this season. There's power and plenty of athleticism, but I'm just not sure he's a great bet to make an impact in 2025. 
  • Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks – If not for injuries, Lawlard might be several hundred games into his MLB career, and he's only 22 until next July. This time around, it was a thumb injury in the spring that wrecked his season and limited him to just 23 games across three levels. He's playing in the Dominican Republic right now and has to be considered the favorite to be the Diamondbacks Opening Day shortstop – and with 26 homers and 39 steals in 139 games across his Double-A and Triple-A careers, there's a lot to get excited about here, assuming the injuries haven't derailed his development. 
  • Sebastian Walcott, Rangers – Walcott doesn't turn 19 until March, and yet he's already gotten a taste of Double-A, so a 2025 debut isn't out of the question. He's got contact issues you'd expect from any player promoted as aggressively as Walcott has been, but he also puts up high-end exit velocities rarely seen from players his age. He's a prospect who could take off quickly and force his way to the majors by the summer. 
  • Jacob Wilson, Athletics – Wilson suffered a hamstring injury during his very first MLB game and then proceeded to do little when he got healthy, hitting .250/.314/.315 in 28 games in the majors. He might have a 70-grade hit tool, and he might not have a single other above-average tool, so it's a tough package to make sense of. You could see a Luis Arraez-esque impact here, though hopefully with a few more steals to make the whole profile work a bit better. Or he might be Nick Madrigal and get the bat knocked out of his hands by big-league fastballs. 
  • Kevin McGonigle, Tigers – It would be an exaggeration to say that McGonigle is a clone of Wilson, but … not much of one. He's an elite contact hitter with middling power, so he probably needs to keep running to matter too much for Fantasy. Unfortunately for his chances of a rapid promotion, McGonigle broke a bone in his right hand in Aug, ending his season after just 14 games at High-A. I would guess he'll start the season there in 2025, but it's not out of the question he sees Double-A relatively early on – and if that happens, it's not out of the question he's up by the summer before he turns 21. One thing to note here is while he's further away than Wilson, he has demonstrated more stolen base upside and probably has more underlying power, too. 
  • JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals – The No. 7 pick in this year's draft held his own in his first taste of pro ball, hitting .295 with 16 walks to 15 strikeouts in 29 games at A ball. He probably doesn't have much of a chance to make the Opening Day roster, and if he did, it would probably be at second base, with Masyn Winn handling things ably at shortstop. Wetherholt didn't run much in 2024 while battling through hamstring injuries, and he'll probably need to get that part of his skill set back if he's going to matter much for Fantasy because there probably isn't much over-the-fence pop. But a Nico Hoerner-esque outcome isn't a bad expectation here, eventually. 
  • Leodalis De Vries, Padres – The Padres are right there with the Rangers in terms of how aggressive they are about promoting prospects, which can make it tough to analyze their prospects. De Vries was the only 17-year-old to play in the Class A California League last year, where he hit .238/.361/.442, and now he's logging time in the Arizona Fall League to close out the season. It's extremely unlikely we'll see him in the majors as an 18-year-old, but I suppose you can't put anything past the Padres. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they got him to Double-A to open 2025.