I'm hopeful that Melvin Gordon gets a contract extension or reports to the Chargers in time for Week 1, but I'm not overly optimistic as we head into the third week of preseason action.
You shouldn't be either.
If Gordon sits out the majority of the season, the Chargers have two running backs to replace him in Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. I like Jackson as a sleeper given his Average Draft Position on CBS Sports in Round 12. But Ekeler has the chance to be a breakout candidate.
While reports indicate the Chargers would use Ekeler and Jackson in a 50-50 split while Gordon is out, I expect Ekeler to see more work because of his role in the passing game. He has the chance to be a weekly starter in PPR and a flex in non-PPR leagues.
In 2018, while splitting work with Gordon, Ekeler scored at least 11 PPR points in five of his first seven games. He cooled off after the Chargers' bye in Week 8 and missed two games with a groin injury down the stretch, but he still scored at least 11 PPR points in three of his final four outings.
He looked great in the first preseason game against the Cardinals with five carries for 40 yards (8.0 yards per carry), as well as three catches for 29 yards, although he lost a fumble. But the Chargers went right back to Ekeler on their following drive after the fumble, and it's clear the coaching staff trusts him.
The nice thing about drafting Ekeler is that even if Gordon is back, he still has stand-alone value. I'm looking for Ekeler in Round 6 in PPR leagues and Round 7 in non-PPR formats.
And the longer Gordon remains away from the Chargers, the more likely it is that Ekeler has a breakout season in 2019. He's one of my favorite players to target in all leagues this year, along with the other 12 guys listed here.
This is my final look at breakouts for 2019. I've written about many of these guys already, but I wanted to deliver the message one last time that these are several of my favorite players for this year.
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QB Breakouts
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A lot of the Fantasy teams I've drafted already are going to depend on Winston being a breakout candidate because I have a lot of stock in him. But I'm excited about that. Winston should benefit in a big way with Bruce Arians now calling plays, and he should allow Winston to play free with his "no risk it, no biscuit" mantra. He's going to make mistakes, but he also has the chance for plenty of big plays. Tampa Bay has a dynamic receiving corps with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard, but the Buccaneers also have a suspect run game and defense. All of these things should force Winston to carry the offense, and it should be his best year yet. In 2018, Winston started nine games, and he scored at least 20 Fantasy points in five of them. I expect many more 20-point outings this season, and he should finish as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback. He's also a great value on Draft Day with his ADP in Round 8.
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RB Breakouts
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The concern about Chubb this year is what will happen when Kareem Hunt returns from his eight-game suspension, which is valid. I'll worry about that when it happens in Week 10. Until then, one of my bold predictions for this season is Chubb will be the best Fantasy running back, regardless of format, for the first eight games of the year. I'm excited about his outlook after the Browns traded Duke Johnson to Houston, and I consider him the No. 5 running back on Draft Day behind Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. Last year, once Chubb took over as the featured running back in Week 7, he scored at least 13 PPR points in seven of his final nine games. He averaged 17.8 PPR points over that span, and he had four games with at least three receptions. He's underrated as a pass catcher, and he should dominate touches until Hunt is active. Then, when Hunt is back, we don't know what will happen, but I'm planning to enjoy the hot start Chubb will give me. He's on the path to stardom.
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Maybe one day I learn from my mistakes. But it won't be now when it comes to Fournette. I'm excited for Fournette to bounce back this season after he was a bust in 2018. He's someone to target in Round 2 in all leagues. He's healthy, the offensive line should return to full strength — along with the addition of rookie Jawaan Taylor — and Nick Foles is an upgrade over Blake Bortles at quarterback. Fournette was good as a rookie in 2017 with 286 carries for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns, along with 36 catches for 302 yards and one touchdown. I see him doing more this season, and Jacksonville should be among the league leaders in rushing attempts like the team was in 2017. You should feel confident to buy back in to Fournette this year, and I'm counting on him to reward us all with a big season.
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Dalvin Cook has been a frustrating Fantasy option for the first two years of his career, and he's missed more games (17) than he's played (15). But now it's time for him to deliver a solid campaign worth of production, and I'm confident that he will. He's someone I'm drafting in Round 2 in all leagues. In the 15 games he's played over the past two seasons, he's scored at least 11 PPR points 11 times. And last year, once Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator for the final three games of the season, Cook averaged 16.7 PPR points over that span. Stefanski and assistant head coach Gary Kubiak will call plays this year, and that should benefit Cook in a big way since both want to lean on the ground game. Cook also had eight catches in the three games under Stefanski on 10 targets, too. The addition of rookie center Garrett Bradbury should improve the offensive line, and Cook has everything he needs to succeed. He just needs to stay healthy. If he plays 16 games, he could finish as a top-five Fantasy running back in all formats.
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I liked Johnson before Detroit released Theo Riddick, and he was among my favorite rookies in 2018. But now I can't contain my excitement for his outlook this year. I would draft Johnson in Round 2 as a top 10 Fantasy running back. The Lions have said they want to commit to the ground game under new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, and Johnson should be the catalyst of that attack. Johnson also benefits in the passing game with Riddick gone since he had 74 targets last year. There were already reports that Johnson had the chance for at least 50-plus catches this season, and he was actually on pace for 51 receptions in the 10 games he played in 2018 before getting hurt. He's going to lose work to C.J. Anderson, but not enough that it should make you worry. If Johnson stays healthy, he could be a monster in 2019.
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Jacobs might be hiding from the cameras on HBO's Hard Knocks, but he isn't hiding from Fantasy managers this year. You should have expectations of him being a star as a rookie, and he should be a workhorse in Oakland. He didn't play much at Alabama with 251 carries for 1,491 yards (5.9 yards per carry) and 16 touchdowns, as well as 48 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns in three seasons, so he should be fresh coming into the NFL. Coach Jon Gruden has a good history with his running backs, and in 2018 he was able to get Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin and Jalen Richard to combine for 17 games with double digits in PPR points. The Raiders offense should be improved this season with Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams and Trent Brown coming to Oakland, and Jacobs should benefit in a big way. I plan to draft him toward the end of Round 3 or beginning of Round 4 in all leagues.
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WR Breakouts
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Lockett was the No. 16 PPR receiver last season, but I expect him to do even better this year. That's because his targets should rise with Doug Baldwin retired, and now rookie D.K. Metcalf (knee) is hurt. Lockett only had 71 targets last year, which ranked 55th among receivers, but now I can see him getting 71 receptions -- if not more. In 2018, he managed 57 receptions for 965 yards and 10 touchdowns, but I'm excited for him now that he's playing in the slot. Russell Wilson really doesn't have many reliable options in the passing game, even if Metcalf is healthy since he's a rookie. I would draft Lockett as a No. 1 receiver in non-PPR leagues, with his value slightly lower in PPR. But if you can get Lockett in Round 4 in any format then that's the place to target him on Draft Day.
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Godwin was one of my favorite players last season, and he did well in his sophomore campaign with at least 13 PPR points in seven outings. But this year he could be dominant as a third-year breakout candidate with Arians now as the coach. You should be excited about Godwin playing in the slot, and he's already drawing comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald during his time with Arians. Keep in mind that Fitzgerald posted three straight 1,000-yard seasons and led the Cardinals in targets while playing primarily from the slot under Arians from 2015-17. Evans should still be the focal point of this passing attack, with Howard also a significant factor. But Godwin should thrive with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries gone, and those two accounted for 179 targets, 117 catches, 1,590 yards and nine touchdowns. Some of that production will clearly go Godwin's way. Also, in six games over the past two seasons without Jackson on the field, Godwin has scored at least 12 PPR points in four of them. Godwin's worth drafting in Round 4 in all leagues. This year the hype will produce a big reward.
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Kupp is all the way back from last year's torn ACL that he suffered in Week 10 against Seattle, and hopefully he can pick up where he left off. Kupp scored at least 12 PPR points in six of the eight games he appeared in, including five games with at least 17 PPR points, but two of those games (Week 6 at Denver and against the Seahawks) he was unable to finish due to injury. The Rams are loaded with talent with Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, but Jared Goff loves leaning on Kupp. In his six healthy games in 2018, Kupp averaged 7.8 targets per game. And if you take those six games over a 16-game pace, Kupp would have finished with 93 catches for 1,405 yards and 16 touchdowns. It's not reasonable to expect that type of production, especially the touchdowns, but Kupp is a No. 2 receiver to target in all leagues beginning in Round 5. As long as he doesn't suffer a setback, Kupp should be in line for a big year.
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I'm combining both Panthers receivers here because I like them both a lot. Moore should be drafted first, and he's someone to target in Round 5 in all formats. But I would also draft Samuel as early as Round 6, and he's one of my favorite players for 2019. As a rookie in 2018, Moore posted five games with double digits in PPR points in his final seven games. And Samuel closed last year with at least 11 PPR points in six of his final seven games, including three outings with at least eight targets. Both should build off those performances, especially with Cam Newton healthy after last year's shoulder injury. I would not be surprised to see Moore and Samuel both finish as top 24 Fantasy receivers this season.
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I'm combining both Panthers receivers here because I like them both a lot. Moore should be drafted first, and he's someone to target in Round 5 in all formats. But I would also draft Samuel as early as Round 6, and he's one of my favorite players for 2019. As a rookie in 2018, Moore posted five games with double digits in PPR points in his final seven games. And Samuel closed last year with at least 11 PPR points in six of his final seven games, including three outings with at least eight targets. Both should build off those performances, especially with Cam Newton healthy after last year's shoulder injury. I would not be surprised to see Moore and Samuel both finish as top 24 Fantasy receivers this season.
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Shepard might not seem like someone in line for a big year given the quarterback situation and the Giants wanting to run the ball a million times with Barkley. But don't be surprised if Shepard ends up as a starting Fantasy receiver by the end of the year. Let's start with what he's done over the past two seasons with Odell Beckham hurt for the Giants, and Beckham (if you haven't heard) is now in Cleveland. Shepard has played 11 games without Beckham over that span, and he averaged 12.6 PPR points in those games. Golden Tate, who was brought in to help replace Beckham, is suspended for the first four games of the season, which should help Shepard get off to a hot start. And despite the offense running through Barkley, the Giants will still throw the ball enough to help Shepard be a candidate for 120-plus targets. I like Shepard as a No. 3 receiver with upside, and he's someone worth drafting in Round 7 in all leagues.
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TE Breakouts
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Henry played just 14 snaps last season in the NFL playoffs after suffering a torn ACL in May of 2018. He was considered a breakout candidate last year prior to getting hurt, and hopefully he can stay at 100 percent this season. Tyrell Williams signed with the Raiders this offseason, and Antonio Gates isn't expected to return to the team. With those two gone, there are 110 targets for 69 catches, 987 yards and seven touchdowns to replace from last year. A good portion of that should go to Henry, who had at least 11 PPR points in seven of 14 games in 2017. Philip Rivers should lean on Henry as one of his top targets, along with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and I can see Henry finishing as a top five tight end this year. He's among the top six tight ends on Draft Day with Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Evan Engram and Howard, and I would look for Henry as early as Round 5 in the majority of leagues.
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So which Fantasy Football breakouts should you target in your draft? And which rookie running back is a must-have RB2? Visit SportsLine now to get 2019 Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Tevin Coleman's breakout season, and find out.
