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What a time to be alive that the headline you just read even exists. Andrew Luck threw for more than 4,500 yards last year and 39 touchdowns. Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are inexperienced signal callers with almost no floor. Of course, most of this has to do with Luck's mysterious lower leg injury and question marks about his health. Let's start there.
I have no information about Luck's calf, small little bone, or ankle. The scary part is it doesn't sound like I know much less than the Colts. This does not seem to be a situation where the Colts are hiding information; they just don't have it. And that's terrifying. But let's put it in perspective.
In our most recent two-QB draft Luck was selected in the eighth round as the 16th quarterback off the board. In our 10-team PPR draft the day before, Luck was selected in the 13th round as the ninth quarterback drafted. While I fully understand risk aversion early in the draft, what are we really risking here? And what are you risking it for?
The Colts have expressed guarded optimism that Luck will be ready for Week 1. Does that really mean anything? Maybe not, other than Luck's return hasn't been ruled out. If he is ready for Week 1 and you took him in the ninth round or later, you may have just won your league. If he isn't ready for Week 1, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Mitchell Trubisky are all available in the 12th round or later. In many leagues, they aren't even drafted.
If Luck doesn't play all season, you just threw away a late-round pick. Everyone else did as well; we just don't know which ones yet.
The way I always understood the argument for drafting Kyler Murray, and the argument I've made for drafting Lamar Jackson, is that they have league-winning upside and their floor is irrelevant. It's irrelevant because quarterback is extremely deep and replacement play is easily attainable. That argument is certainly true, and it's even more true for Luck. He has more upside and may soon cost you even less in terms of draft capital.
Everyone knows what Lucks upside is, but it bears repeating. The past four times Luck has played at least 15 games, he has finished as a top-five quarterback in Fantasy. It's the expectation, not a hope. And that's the biggest difference between Luck and other upside quarterbacks like Murray or Jackson. His upside isn't theoretical. It's what we can reasonably expect as long as he's active.
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I am on board with dropping Luck out of the top four. I can't take him ahead of guys like Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, or Baker Mayfield anymore. I struggle with Jameis Winston, who may be close to being able to match Luck's upside. But if Luck's going to fall much past that range of quarterbacks, I'll happily be drafting him.
The final part of the puzzle is whether you have to draft another quarterback with Luck. I won't in most industry drafts as long as there's waivers before the season. But that's because in most industry leagues there are 18 or fewer quarterbacks drafted. If you think most teams in your league will draft a backup, you should too. My favorite early season quarterbacks are:
Lamar Jackson -- Gets the Dolphins, Cardinals and Chiefs to start the season.
Jimmy Garoppolo -- Starts with the Buccaneers.
Mitchell Trubisky -- Early season schedule is fine, but mostly he's just way too cheap right now.
So which Fantasy Football breakouts should you target in your draft? And which rookie running back is a must-have RB2? Visit SportsLine now to get 2019 Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Tevin Coleman's breakout season, and find out.
