When you're talking about sleepers for Fantasy football, you're inevitably talking about betting on unlikely outcomes. The days when players were obviously undervalued for no good reason are gone – there are too many smart people writing about Fantasy and making rankings for there to be any truly overlooked players anymore.
But there are still plenty of players taken in the later rounds in Fantasy every year who exceed expectations. As sharp as the industry is, there are always going to be outliers and exceptions, and so that's what you're looking for when you're looking for sleepers. You're looking for players who are potentially undervalued for one reason or another – typically due to injury concerns or questions about their role on their team or the quality of their offenses.
And those are things that are hard to predict. Injuries are famously nearly impossible to predict, try though we might, while depth charts are constantly in flux, leading to situations where we overreact to Week 1 playing time expectations without taking into account long-term potential changes.
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When I'm looking for sleepers, those are typically the things I'm keeping in mind. Here are my first round of sleepers for the 2022 Fantasy Football season with an ADP below 125 in NFC drafts to date:
2022 Sleepers
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One of the key questions for the Saints coming into this season is how much of their ultra-conservative game plan from last season was a result of coaching, a lack of faith in Winston, or a lack of faith in their weapons. They had the second-lowest pass rate in the NFL at 51% and averaged just 25.2 pass attempts per game in Winston's six healthy starts. Perhaps, playing with Marquez Callaway as their top non-Alvin Kamara receiver played a role in that. With Michael Thomas expected to be healthy, plus rookie Chris Olave and veteran Jarvis Landry added in the offseason, this has the potential to go from arguably the worst WR group in the NFL to a pretty good one. We've seen Winston be a very good Fantasy QB when he's had the weapons, so if the Saints trust him more to open things up, he could get to that level again if he's right coming off his torn ACL.
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Mariota is being overlooked, and it makes sense – he's the bridge quarterback for the Falcons, either to Desmond Ridder or to whoever they decide to draft next season. However, let's not forget that the last time we saw Mariota start a game, he rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown and had 27.8 PPR points for the Raiders back in 2020. He's a threat to pick up chunks of yards with his legs every week and has been a decent enough passer overall – 7.5 yards per attempt, 4.3% touchdown rate – that it's not out of the question he could be a viable streamer or even high-end No. 2 in 2QB leagues.
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Both Edwards and J.K. Dobbins tore their ACL last season, but Dobbins' injury was the more serious of the two, as he also reportedly had a meniscus tear and some other damage to the side of his knee. And, it sounds like Dobbins is no guarantee to be ready for Week 1, something we haven't heard about Edwards. Edwards' upside is limited by the fact that he never catches passes – 18 catches in 43 career games – but he's averaged 12.1 PPR points per game in nine with at least 15 carries. He could be a viable starter if Dobbins isn't ready or suffers a setback.
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Jones was never able to convince the Buccaneers coaching staff to trust him for a three-down role, and I'm not sure things are going to be much different in Kansas City. The likeliest outcome is he splits work with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and as the non-pass catcher of the duo, that would make Jones the much less interesting of them. However, there's at least a chance the Chiefs coaching staff warms up to him more than Tampa's. Jones is a dynamic runner with big play ability and the size and power to produce near the goal line, so if he's the lead runner and has a non-zero passing game role, he could be very, very useful in this offense. The likeliest outcome for Jones is pretty uninteresting, but the best-case scenario could be quite good.
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When it comes to running backs coming back from Achilles' injuries, D'Onta Foreman's 2021 stands out as one of the better success stories. Foreman rushed for 4.3 yards per carry on 133 carries in 2021, four years after suffering that injury, so that tells you what kind of history we're dealing with here. Robinson has his work cut out for him, but he's expected to be cleared during training camp and has shown three-down skills in the past. New Jaguars coach Doug Pederson has shown a preference for using multiple backs, and Travis Etienne figures to have a significant role no matter how Robinson looks. However, Etienne is coming off his own significant injury that cost him his entire rookie season, so if he isn't right – or just isn't a difference maker – there's room for Robinson to carve out a significant role.
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The Raiders already turned down Josh Jacobs' fifth-year option, so he's very much in limbo right now. Kenyan Drake's contract is also set to expire at the end of this season, so they really don't have any long-term commitments here. White has started to get some hype from beat writers around the team who expect him to have a role from Week 1, especially with Drake potentially not 100% by the start of training camp. If the Raiders opt to cut their losses with Jacobs, White could be in line for a very valuable role in what we expect to be an improved offense.
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With Tyreek Hill out of the picture, the Chiefs receiving corps is in flux, and that creates opportunity for Fantasy. I like JuJu Smith-Schuster as a mid-round target, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling's ability to get open down the field makes him a very intriguing upside play. But don't forget about Moore, who may open the season fourth on the depth chart or may end up being the team's top target. Moore was the 22nd pick in the second round of this year's draft after putting up 1,292 yards for Western Michigan last year as a 20-year-old junior, and his speed and playmaking chops could earn him a significant role early on. Is it guaranteed? Of course not! But this should still be a terrific passing offense, and the uncertainty on the depth chart makes Moore a potentially massive value.
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If Michael Thomas is fully healthy after two mostly lost seasons, there's a pretty good chance Landry won't have much appeal for Fantasy. But the last official word we got from Thomas was that he didn't participate in offseason minicamp or OTAs after missing much of the past two seasons with ankle issues, and while he's expected to be ready for the start of training camp, there's obviously no guarantee he stays healthy. Landry isn't as good as Thomas, obviously, but he's been a high-volume possession receiver in the mold of Thomas before and has a chance to be a must-start option in PPR leagues if Thomas misses time.
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Samuel has been healthy this offseason and participating in offseason team workouts, which is a good sign after his 2021 was derailed by a groin injury in training camp that he just never quite got over. The last time we saw Samuel healthy, he put up over 1,000 yards from scrimmage with the Panthers, and I still think he has that kind of potential to be a do-it-all weapon for the Commanders. There is competition here, obviously, with Terry McLaurin having signed a massive extension and first-rounder Jahan Dotson added this offseason, but if Carson Wentz can provide some stability to the QB room, there could still be room for Samuel to thrive. With one of your last-round picks, you can certainly do worse than a player with Samuel's skill set.
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If you're trying to get a piece of the Broncos offense following their acquisition of Russell Wilson, your choices are to pay a premium in the hopes that Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy can make up for their disappointing production a year ago or buy Tim Patrick and Okwuegbunam at a much cheaper price. Jeudy and Sutton are more likely to emerge as must-start options, obviously, but I actually find myself more interested in Patrick and especially Okwuegbunam at their prices. Okwuegbunam has the size and speed to be a significant playmaker at the tight end position and has shown the ability to make plays with the ball in his hands, a key skill for tight ends in Fantasy, who often have to make do with shorter area targets in the middle of the field. Okwuegbunam might be the No. 4 target in this offense and that still might be enough to make him a must-start tight end for Fantasy.
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The floor could fall out types
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As long as Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the 49ers roster, the possibility of Lance losing his job will loom over him. It doesn't actually seem like the 49ers have much interest in keeping Garoppolo around – perhaps for exactly that reason – but if he's still there come Week 1, Lance's downside risk looks more realistic. The 49ers are betting on Lance being the piece who can help the offense level up, and if he does that, he's going to be elite for Fantasy purposes. But he's incredibly unproven, having started just three games since 2019 – when he was at FCS North Dakota State -- not exactly the highest level of competition, so struggles wouldn't be unexpected. If I'm not taking a QB early, Lance is one of the guys I want to pair with someone like Derek Carr, because that's the combination of upside and floor I'll need to feel better about having Lance.
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Running backs
Won't live up to the hype types
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Harris overcame middling (at best, frankly) efficiency as a rookie thanks to massive volume, but can you rely on that happening again? His passing game role seems especially questionable without Ben Roethlisberger, for whom the term "statuesque" would be a compliment in his final two seasons. If it's rookie Kenny Pickett at QB, I expect Harris will still see plenty of targets, but the more mobile Mitchell Trubisky could cut into those targets, and there's still no guarantee this Steelers offense is going to be able to move the ball effectively in either phase of the game. I think it's reasonable to bet on Harris' efficiency improving in Year 2, but if it doesn't, he could certainly disappoint, providing more like RB2 production for a high-end RB1 price.
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The floor could fall out types
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All of a sudden, Henry is a 28-year-old running back coming off a missed half season due to a broken foot who nonetheless has racked up more than 1,000 touches over the past three seasons. The case for Henry has long rested on the idea that he's such an anomaly at the position that the rules don't apply to him, so I'm surprised to see he's still a consensus first-rounder now that we've actually seen him look mortal and because he doesn't catch many passes, Henry relies on outlier volume and efficiency as a rusher to be an elite option, and if either slips, the path to elite production starts to get really, really narrow. Henry is still an RB1 for me, but I also think he has the most blow-up potential of any first-round caliber player.
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Any time you get to the final year of a contract for a running back, you're at the point where the grasp on their job could become tenuous very quickly. And the worst bets at the position tend to be the types of players who projected reasonably well because we think they have a solid role on a team with little competition – think Myles Gaskin or Mike Davis last season as prototypical examples here. Sanders falls into both buckets – the Eagles have no ties to him beyond this season and, while he projects to get a decent amount of work, nobody's really expecting him to have much of a role in the passing game or near the end zone. The hope for Sanders is he's a compiler on a good rushing offense, with the potential for some touchdown upside, but there's not much margin for error. If he starts to cede even some of the early-down work, there's very little buoying Sanders' value at this point.
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All that stuff about Sanders? It applies doubly to Jacobs, whose team actually turned down his fifth-year option – actual evidence that they don't view him as a long-term piece. Now, they may be content to ride Jacobs into free agency to get the most they can out of him, and he showed enough as a pass-catcher last season that I have him ranked ahead of Sanders. But there's no guarantee he replicates that role if Kenyan Drake is healthy. I'm snagging rookie Zamir White with one of my last picks in as many drafts as I can just on the off chance the Raiders simply opt to move on from Jacobs.
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Wide receivers
Won't live up to the hype types
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With Amari Cooper out of the picture, the expectation is that Lamb will emerge as the kind of elite, go-to wide receiver Fantasy players have been expecting him to be. And I think that's a decent bet; Lamb is incredibly talented and the Cowboys also lost Cedrick Wilson and could be without Michael Gallup to start the season. But the Cowboys have never really been a team that funnels a massive target share to one single wide receiver – Cooper had a 23.8% target share in nine games in 2018, but in Kellen Moore's time as offensive coordinator, no receiver has had a target share higher than 21.1% while playing more than nine games. Lamb could change that, but it's fair to point out that a lot of Fantasy players have already overshot his expected role in two seasons so far. Will Year 3 be different? I'm cautiously optimistic, but not enough that I'm going to be the one who drafts him in most of my leagues, I would expect.
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Individually, Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both terrific talents, and they combine to give Miami maybe the fastest wide receiver tandem in the league. How they'll fare playing alongside one another with Tua Tagovailoa is the question. Tagovailoa relied on quick-hitting RPO concepts more than just about any QB in the league last season, and a significant amount of Waddle's production came from those plays. Can he incorporate Hill while keeping Waddle fed well enough for both to live up to top-15 WR draft costs? A lot of that will depend on Tagovailoa's development, but it's also fair to wonder if Mike McDaniel's San Fran-inspired offense will have room enough for both – there haven't been many times when the 49ers have had multiple must-start Fantasy receivers in their run-heavy offense over the years.
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The floor could fall out types
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The average return-to-play time for wide receivers coming back from ACL surgery is between 10 and 11 months, and since Godwin didn't have surgery until early January, that would put him on pace for a mid-October return, more or less. Maybe earlier, sure, in which case it's possible he's ready to be an impact player from Week 1. However, it's just as likely he needs a little more time to be healthy enough to play, and he might need even more time to look and feel like himself. Remember, Odell Beckham had his surgery two months before Godwin did in the NFL calendar the previous year and didn't play until Week 3 – and wasn't really himself for a while after that. Godwin has top-12 upside, and if he's there in the Fantasy playoffs, you might be able to live with a slow start. But there's a chance he just isn't right for long enough that it doesn't matter.
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Earning targets is a skill, and Allen remains one of the best in the league at that skill, but I can't help but feel like there's just a bit of risk here. He hasn't been particularly efficient with his targets over the past two seasons (6.7 and 7.2 yards per target), and I do wonder if at some point the Chargers might not start to distribute those elsewhere if that continues. We actually started to see that toward the end of last season, as he had double-digit targets in just one of his final five games, putting up an 85-catch, 826-yard pace – albeit with four touchdowns, so the Fantasy production was still pretty solid. The point is, Allen probably can't afford much of a dip in his target share if he's going to remain a high-end Fantasy WR, and at 30, his best days are probably behind him.
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Tight ends
Won't live up to the hype types
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Andrews was actually significantly better in the games Lamar Jackson missed last season, averaging 21.96 points on 11.4 targets per game in five without Jackson compared to 16.3 on 8.5 targets with him. But that was mostly because the Ravens were forced to throw more and Tyler Huntley just zeroed in on Andrews to an absurd degree, with a 28.2% target share. Jackson loves Andrews too, but he won't need to be quite as desperate to lean on him (23.6% target share), and I'm assuming the Ravens won't be quite as pass-heavy as they were when they relied on the likes of Devonta Freeman, Ty'Son Williams, and Le'Veon Bell a year ago. It all points to Andrews still being one of the best tight ends in Fantasy, but probably not the kind of difference maker he was a year ago.
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The floor could fall out types
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I feel like I just need to write "*points to Robert Tonyan*" and that gets the point across about as well as anything else I could write. Tonyan was a more extreme example of what Knox did last season, with 11 touchdowns on just 59 targets, but the idea is the same – unsustainable touchdown luck that would require an unlikely increase in targets to justify being much more than a fringe starter. Knox had his 11 touchdowns across eight games, but reached double digits in PPR scoring just once in the other nine, so he was pretty touchdown-or-bust-y. If the touchdowns aren't there, he's going to be pretty bust-y.
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