Alec Pierce returns to Colts: Fantasy Football fallout, 2026 outlook and where to draft the breakout receiver
Pierce returns to the Colts after breaking out in the final year of his rookie deal
We knew Alec Pierce was going to get paid this offseason. We just didn't know how much or from which team, but that answer came moments after the NFL free agent negotiating period opened Monday.
Pierce agreed to remain in Indianapolis on a four-year, $114 million contract that will make him the highest-paid free agent receiver in NFL history. The deal contains $84 million in guarantees and $60 million fully guaranteed at signing.
And Pierce got more good news Monday when the Colts agreed to trade Michael Pittman to the Steelers. It's clear Indianapolis wants to feature Pierce in a major way.
Fantasy managers should consider Pierce a low-end No. 2 receiver in the majority of leagues, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 5. With Pittman gone, Pierce should see a spike in targets.
He averaged just 5.6 targets per game in 2025 when he finished with 47 catches for 1,003 yards and six touchdowns on 84 targets in 15 games, and he averaged 12.2 PPR points per game. His best asset was big plays down the field, and he averaged 21.3 yards per catch. He also averaged 22.3 yards per catch in 2024.
Pittman averaged 6.5 targets per game last season, so his departure should help Pierce significantly. And now we have to see what happens with the health and contract status of quarterback Daniel Jones, who was given the transition tag by the Colts last week.
The transition tag gives Jones a one-year, fully guaranteed $37.83 million salary for 2026 and allows him to negotiate with other teams, though Indianapolis retains the right to match any offer sheet. Barring something unexpected, Jones should play for the Colts in 2026 -- once he's healthy.
Jones underwent surgery in December to repair a torn right Achilles that he suffered in Week 14. The recovery timeline is 6-to-8 months, which puts him in a position to be fully cleared for Week 1.
Through Week 14, Pierce scored at least 13 PPR points five times in 11 games. He also scored at least 24.6 PPR points in two of his final three outings.
He had four games in 2025 with at least seven targets, and he scored at least 13 PPR points in all four outings. While Tyler Warren and Josh Downs are back, Pierce can still be successful sharing targets with that duo, especially since he should showcase more of his route running with Pittman no longer on the team.
We'll continue to monitor what happens with Jones and the rest of the Colts this offseason. Indianapolis made it a priority to retain Pierce and Jones, and it appears like both will return in 2026.
The Colts had to pay a lot to keep Pierce on the roster. Now, we'll see if he can earn it -- and help his Fantasy value improve as well.
As for Pittman, he's coming off a down season in 2025 where he had 80 catches for 784 yards and seven touchdowns on 111 targets, and he averaged 11.9 PPR points per game. He's been under 12 PPR points per game in each of the past two years, but he averaged at least 13.5 PPR points per game from 2021-23.
He's only 28 and can still be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues, but we have to see what the Steelers do at quarterback. Pittman will be the No. 2 option in the Pittsburgh passing game behind DK Metcalf, and the earliest I would draft Pittman now is Round 10.
We will fully address Pittman's Fantasy value once the Steelers get their quarterback for 2026. Most likely, that will be Aaron Rodgers returning, but Pittman's Fantasy value is on the decline with this trade.
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