It's wide receiver week here at CBS Sports, and we're taking a deep dive into the position. Receivers have now become the dominant position for Fantasy managers in PPR, and we want to make sure you're covered on Draft Day.
Here, we're looking at wide receiver bust candidates, and we'll focus on sleepers and breakouts this week as well. For this column, I'm looking at players who I believe are being drafted too soon based on the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data on August 17.
At the right cost, I would gladly draft these players on my Fantasy roster. However, based on their current price, I will likely avoid these four wide receivers in 2023.
Adams' ADP on CBS actually isn't bad at 23.1, but that needs some explanation. All the receivers are coming in at a discounted price right now -- only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are first-round picks -- so I'm not sure that's truly reflective of where Adams will go. He's being drafted as WR8, and that might be too soon for him. Adams is an amazing talent, and he should be able to remain successful this season to a high degree. But his age, along with the situation in Las Vegas, might be too much to keep him at an elite status. Jimmy Garoppolo should be a downgrade for Adams compared to Derek Carr, and reports in training camp indicate Garoppolo is having trouble throwing down the field. Adams is also 30 now, and receivers at his age haven't fared well of late. In the past 10 years, only 17 receivers at 30 or older have averaged at least 15.0 PPR points per game. And only three over that span -- Brandon Marshall in 2015 at age 31 (21.2 PPR points per game), Jordy Nelson in 2016 at 31 (19.0) and Antonio Brown in 2018 at 30 (21.6) -- produced at the level Adams did in 2022 at 19.4 PPR points per game. I don't mind drafting Adams in Round 2, but I would rather have Garrett Wilson and Amon-Ra St. Brown over Adams this year.
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I want Samuel on my Fantasy team, but not as the No. 12 receiver off the board. He's going ahead of guys like DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins and Chris Olave, among others, and that is a mistake. It feels like if you're drafting Samuel here you're expecting the 2021 version and not the version we saw in 2022. Last year, Samuel averaged 12.2 PPR points per game, which was a far cry from his 2021 campaign when he was at 21.2 PPR points. In his four-year career, Samuel has three seasons at 12.9 PPR points per game or less and the one season in 2021, which feels like an outlier. I hope Samuel can play at a higher level this season, but there are still reasons to doubt him. Samuel did well with Brock Purdy last season, and in five games together, including the playoffs, Samuel averaged 6.8 targets per game and 16.8 PPR points. That's great, but Samuel only topped 60 receiving yards once over that span. And after Christian McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7, Samuel averaged just three carries per game with one rushing touchdown -- he had eight rushing touchdowns in 2021. There are a lot of mouths to feed in San Francisco's stacked offense with Samuel, McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, and I don't want to overvalue Samuel. Round 4 is a good spot to target him, but not ahead of some other receivers with more upside.
Metcalf's ADP on CBS is Round 5, but he's coming off the board as WR19, which is the problem. I'd rather have DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Watson, Jerry Jeudy and Keenan Allen in PPR, and all of them are being selected after Metcalf, which is a mistake. I'm excited about the Seahawks passing game this season, and Geno Smith is an amazing value pick as QB18 in Round 11. A big reason why I like Smith is his robust receiving corps, which added standout rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the NFL Draft. Now, Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Smith-Njigba will all be fighting for targets, and it might be hard for Metcalf to stand out among the rest. For the past two seasons, Lockett has actually been the better Fantasy receiver for the Seahawks over Metcalf. I'm hopeful that this season the 25-year-old Metcalf will outperform Lockett, who turns 31 in September, but you see the dilemma here. Metcalf has to be significantly better than Lockett and Smith-Njigba to justify drafting him in this spot, and I'm not sure that's going to happen in 2023.
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This isn't so much about Evans' ADP on CBS, which is 81.0, but again remember that receivers are pushed down here. I don't love him as WR29, but that's OK. I'm just worried that Evans without Tom Brady could be terrible. For most of his career, Evans has been a star, and we're all aware of his nine-year streak of 1,000-yard seasons. But last year, Evans was a disaster down the stretch, and he scored nine PPR points or less in five of his final eight games. He'll be 30 before the start of the season, and now he's going to play with Baker Mayfield, who is a significant downgrade from Brady (duh). It might even be Kyle Trask at quarterback, which could be worse. The pass volume is likely to crater in Tampa Bay, and Evans could again have an inconsistent season. There will still be some big weeks -- he did close the 2022 regular season with 48 PPR points in Week 17 against Carolina. But the frustrating weeks might mount up, and you could find yourself with Evans on your bench more than expected in 2023.
