Fantasy Football 2026: Way-too-early quarterback projections

Heath Cummings takes his first stab at projecting quarterbacks in 2026.

By Heath Cummings

Feb 18, 2026 at 8:23 am ET • 2 min read

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The middle of February may seem too early for Fantasy Football projections. 'Seem' may not be a strong enough word in that first sentence. Free agency is right around the corner, but the NFL Draft won't happen for two more months. It is way too early. But that doesn't mean it isn't helpful to take a snapshot before things get crazy.

The first thing you notice when you look at the projections below is that we have more job openings than good starting quarterbacks. Considering that Francisco Mendoza is the only projected starter in the upcoming draft, and I have five teams below projected with no starting quarterback, we should expect some shuffling of the deck chairs in 2026. Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, and Aaron Rodgers aren't listed below, but if they want to start in 2026, I would expect they get the chance. I do currently have Michael Penix Jr., Jacoby Brissett, J.J. McCarthy, and Shedeur Sanders projected as starters, but not with anything close to certainty. Maybe Deshaun Watson or Kirk Cousins get another shot.

The second thing this process is helpful for is noticing the tiers at the top of the rankings. Josh Allen projects for 16 more Fantasy points than any other QB, but QB2 through QB7 are projected within 15 points of each other. In a recent CBS mock draft, both Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott fell to Round 8, and they are both in the second tier of these projections. If that trend holds in July, then the back end of that second tier will be my favorite place to draft a quarterback.

One final thing that may stick out to you is the fact that Patrick Mahomes is currently projected as QB19. The first point about this is that projections are not the same as rankings, and I will rank Mahomes significantly higher based on his upside. But specifically to Mahomes, I don't think him missing time early in the season is actually the biggest risk. The biggest risk is that in his first year back after an ACL injury, Mahomes will be less mobile. This could show up in two places. One, most obvious, is that Mahomes' rushing production could crater. He rushed for a career-high 422 yards and five touchdowns last year. He has run for at least 300 yards in six straight seasons. We should not be surprised if he struggles to reach 200 yards rushing next year. The second risk is that Mahomes' lack of mobility negatively affects his ability to buy time in the pocket, and he takes more sacks and is less effective under pressure.

Those risks result in a lower projection, particularly since we still don't know if Mahomes will be ready for Week 1. But I would draft him higher than his projection because of upside. Other QBs I would draft higher than their projection below are Jaxson Dart and Caleb Williams.

Earlier this month, I had Jay Felicio from QB List on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty to discuss the state of the quarterback position in Dynasty. Check it out: