Week 1 feels like it was eons ago, but do you remember the start Caleb Williams had? He scored 41.3 Fantasy points in CBS leagues and was the top player in Fantasy Football. There was some irritation at the fact that he did it all himself, hurting Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, but the general consensus was that Williams had arrived as an elite QB in Fantasy Football. Then he pulled his hamstring in Week 2 and didn't play again until Week 6. In the three games since, Williams has played the best football of his career; the Bears are 3-0 with wins over both of last year's Super Bowl participants. Everything is awesome again, right? Well, it has been for Bears fans, not so much for Williams' Fantasy managers.
In his last three games, Williams has averaged 20.2 Fantasy points per game, which would be tied with Matthew Stafford for QB15 on the season. The Fantasy "problem" is a lack of rushing and a lack of touchdowns. He has 22 yards rushing and four total touchdowns in those three games. For the season, the Bears rank 26th in the NFL with eight passing TDs and second in the league with 17 rushing touchdowns. That makes some sense, considering the Bears have a 62.3% red-zone rush rate, the third-highest mark in the league.
This all leads to the question of what to do with Williams in Week 9. The Bears face a Tampa Bay defense that suddenly looks imposing. They have a top-five defense in points and yards allowed, and a top-10 defense against both the run and the pass. This is no easy matchup. Which is another reason why, in my early Week 9 projections, Williams projects as QB16. Certainly not a must-start QB, but also projected to outscore every QB available on the waiver wire. If you are carrying two good QBs, there is a good chance I would sit Williams this week. But you should not go looking to the waiver wire to replace him.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
Week 9 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 39 -- Tyler Shough is averaging 39 pass attempts per game. That type of volume keeps him in the top 12 conversation.
- 14.8 -- The Broncos are giving up 14.8 FPPG to QBs not named Patrick Mahomes.
- 14 -- Baker Mayfield has thrown 14 passes in his last two games combined.
- 14.8% -- Malik Willis has a 14.8% off-target rate, the worst mark amongst qualified starters.
- 23 -- Jordan Love has had 23 passes dropped this season. No one else has more than 15.
- 5.4 -- Bo Nix is averaging 5.4 air yards per pass attempt, the lowest mark in the league.
- 59 -- Jacoby Brissett has 59 red zone pass attempts this year. No other QBs have more than 48. Gardner Minshew could have a lot of touchdown opportunities in the future.
Waiver Wire Targets
 
NYG
N.Y. Giants
• #9
Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs.
I am surprised McCarthy wasn't added more on his bye week. He is a former first-round pick who has averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt on his first 49 passes with the Giants. This isn't a good matchup against the Eagles this week, but it also isn't a good week for streaming quarterbacks. If I had to add one off the waiver wire and start them, it would be McCarthy. He should be even more comfortable in the offense after his bye week.
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Bo Nix
QB
DEN
Denver
• #10
Age: 26 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Nix is the consensus top streamer, even if he isn't my favorite option. The positive is that he has played better in his last two games, with two touchdowns in each, and he has a very good matchup against the Panthers. The downside is that he has only one game this season with more than 222 passing yards and has multiple passing touchdowns in only two of eight starts. I have some fear the Broncos just don't have to pass much in this game and a lot of Nix's success last week came from chasing the score.
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Geno Smith
QB
NYJ
N.Y. Jets
• #7
Age: 36 • Experience: 14 yrs.
Smith was our top streamer in Week 8 and he scored 22 Fantasy points. He could do that even better in Week 10 against the Buffalo Bills, who have already allowed three different QBs to score at least 31 Fantasy points against them. It's possible, with the matchup against Kansas City this week, that Smith is dropped more often than he is added. If I were looking for a Week 10 streamer, he's the first guy I would try to stash.
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DFS Plays
 
Jared Goff
QB
DET
Detroit
• #16
Age: 32 • Experience: 11 year
It is a strange week at QB with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen both off the main slate. Goff projects as my number two QB on the slate, behind only Brock Purdy. The Dolphins have allowed three straight QBs to score at least 25 Fantasy points against them and Kyler Murray is the only QB who failed to reach 19 Fantasy points against this defense. Detroit should be able to do whatever they want offensively in this game and all of their Fantasy options are on the board in DFS.
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Tyler Shough
QB
NO
New Orleans
• #6
Age: 27 • Experience: 2 yrs.
This is a really interesting matchup. The Browns cannot stop the run and have been pretty good against the pass. The Saints cannot run the ball and throw as much as any team in football. I expect that Browns defense to hold down Shough's roster rate but I do think this game has a chance to turn into a shootout, partially because of the Saints defense. Shough may have an inefficient day that turns into good Fantasy production because of his volume.
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Heath's projections
My full set of Week 9 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 9. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.
