It's not the training camp and preseason we're used to as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, but finally actual football things are happening on the field. And it's glorious.
As such, we're seeing things change with Average Draft Position data on CBS Sports. So let's catch you up on several players who are seeing a rise in their value, as well as those on the decline.
The exciting thing is the ADP will continue to change as real drafts start happening over the next several weeks. And ADP is a good tool to study to see how you want to build your team for this season.
ADP Review
Risers and Fallers
QB Riser
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We expected Newton's ADP to rise once he signed with the Patriots, and he's now up to No. 111.1 overall. More importantly, he's now QB13, and he could creep into the top 12 before the start of the season. We know that when Newton is right, he has top-five upside because of his dual-threat ability. And if you're looking for a streaming option, he's got the Dolphins at home in Week 1.
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QB Faller
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The first time we reviewed the quarterback ADP, Allen was the No. 5 quarterback, but now he's down to QB7 at No. 56.7 overall, and that is the perfect spot for him. Now, could Allen finish as a top-five quarterback? Sure. He's a dual-threat option, and last year he led all quarterbacks with nine rushing touchdowns, also finishing third in rushing yards at the position. He also just got Stefon Diggs this offseason. But I don't think Allen has the same ceiling as the other quarterbacks ahead of him, so don't reach for him.
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RB Risers
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Conner's stock has improved since the first time we reviewed running back ADP, and he's now up to RB20 at No. 40.5 overall. I like him as a top-15 running back in all formats, and I expect him to be drafted in Round 3. We know Conner has battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, but he also has the potential to be a top-10 running back when healthy. He's healthy now, and the Steelers offense should rebound in a big way with Ben Roethlisberger back. Conner is a steal if he stays in this range.
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Jones is now being drafted ahead of teammate Ke'Shawn Vaughn, which is the right move, and Jones' ADP is at No. 73.5 overall as RB30. I would draft Jones in Round 6 in all leagues, and he should be Tampa Bay's best running back this season, even with the addition of LeSean McCoy. Jones could be limited in the passing game, but he's the Buccaneers' best bet to lead the team in rushing yards and work at the goal line. I like him better in non-PPR leagues compared to 0.5 PPR or PPR, but Jones has the chance to be a low-end starter in all formats this year.
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Melvin Gordon is expected to be the lead back in Denver, but don't rule out Lindsay still having a prominent role. He's still being undervalued even as RB43 at No. 111.9 overall, though that is now on the rise. The Broncos should give Lindsay 10-12 touches each week depending on game script, and he should be useful as a flex option in all leagues. And should Gordon miss any time this year — he's already complaining about "struggling a little bit" when it comes to the altitude — Lindsay should prove to be among the best handcuffs this season.
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RB Fallers
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You'll notice a theme here with the running back fallers since they're all rookies, and I'm glad Taylor is slipping a little bit; it means he could be cheaper on Draft Day. I love the outlook for him this season, even with Colts coach Frank Reich saying Marlon Mack will start. Taylor should prove to be the best running back in Indianapolis, and he has top-15 upside in all leagues. He's now RB24 at No. 52.7 overall, and I will grab him at this spot in every league if that holds. I'll love it even more if he continues to slide.
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Swift is one spot behind Taylor as RB25 at No. 55.4 overall, and I don't want him in that spot. The earliest I would draft Swift is Round 6. Lions offensive coordinator Darryl Bevell said it "remains to be seen" how Swift fits in the offense, and it could take a Kerryon Johnson injury for Swift to see a quality workload. Now, if Johnson is out for any reason, Swift could be a Fantasy starter in all leagues. But as long as Johnson is healthy we could see Swift limited to 10 touches or less each week.
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I'm hopeful that we get some breakdown of the Rams backfield on an upcoming HBO's Hard Knocks, but I can understand why Akers' ADP is dropping. He's now RB28 at No. 62.5 overall, and I don't mind him there. Still, we don't know what the Rams have planned for Akers, Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown, but I expect Akers to be their best running back. It might not be a bad idea to pair Akers and Henderson (ADP No. 113.9 overall) together, and then you can use whoever is better once the season starts.
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WR Risers
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We had Aaron Reiss of The Athletic on Fantasy Football Today on CBS Sports HQ on Monday, and he said Fuller should be the best receiver for the Texans with DeAndre Hopkins gone given Fuller's rapport with Deshaun Watson. But, as Reiss noted, the key for Fuller will be his health, as he's missed 14 games over the past two seasons. I'm all in on Fuller this season because if he takes over for Hopkins as the main target for Watson and stays healthy, he could be a top-20 Fantasy receiver in all leagues. I'm glad his ADP is on the rise to WR34 at No. 95.9 overall because you guys are starting to buy in as well.
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The New York Daily News reported Sunday that Crowder is the best receiver for the Jets, which isn't much surprise, but we know he has the chance for a big season if healthy as the slot receiver for Sam Darnold and Adam Gase. If you take the stats Crowder produced in the 13 games in 2019 with Darnold and project that over 16 games, he would have finished with 86 catches for 932 yards and six touchdowns on 132 targets. Crowder is rising, but he's still a steal at WR45 at No. 124.2 overall.
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Lazard has seen a huge leap in ADP, but he's only up to No. 141.4 overall as WR52. I'll buy him at that price all day since he's expected to be the No. 2 receiver for the Packers opposite Davante Adams. While he didn't produce huge stats in that role last season, he does have the chance to become a quality No. 3 Fantasy receiver in three-receiver leagues. In 2019, Lazard had five games with at least five targets, including the final two regular-season games with 17 combined, and he averaged 11.0 PPR points in those outings. Aaron Rodgers needs guys he can rely on besides Adams, and Lazard looks poised for a big role in Green Bay this year.
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WR Fallers
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Parker might fall to a spot where he becomes good value, and he's getting close as WR29 at No. 78.9 overall. I'm concerned about Parker's Fantasy production this season with Preston Williams (ACL) back, as well as Tua Tagovailoa eventually taking over as the starting quarterback. Williams will take away targets from Parker, and he would benefit with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting most of the season at quarterback. Still, as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, Parker isn't bad value in this range.
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Samuel is down to WR43 at No. 115.7 overall, and he should continue to slide because of his foot injury. He's currently on the PUP list for the 49ers, and there's a chance he could remain there to open the season, which would keep him out for at least the first six games. We haven't seen Brandon Aiyuk's ADP rise yet (WR57 at No. 146.9 overall), but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Aiyuk drafted ahead of Samuel in the coming weeks, depending on reports out of San Francisco.
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I'm surprised to see Reagor's ADP slide because he has the chance for a significant role with the Eagles. On Monday, during the team's first practice with pads, Reagor was working as a starter opposite DeSean Jackson, and he could stay in that role with Alshon Jeffery (foot) on the PUP list. Reagor is at WR47 at No. 127.8 overall. That's a fair price for the rookie, but he could go from a faller to a riser soon if he remains in the starting lineup for the Eagles.
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TE Riser
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I'm getting more and more excited about Herndon now that he's healthy after appearing in just one game last season. As a rookie, Herndon flashed with 39 catches, 502 yards and four touchdowns on 56 targets, and he should be among the top options in the passing game for Darnold. Keep in mind that last season, Ryan Griffin scored five touchdowns in the nine games he played with Darnold in 2019, and Herndon is a much better talent than Griffin. He's an amazing value right now at TE19 at No. 154.1 overall, but I expect his ADP to continue to rise.
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TE Faller
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Hooper is down to TE12 at No. 110.1 overall, and I expect his ADP to continue sliding. He isn't expected to be as good with the Browns as he was with the Falcons, and I don't plan to draft Hooper as a starter in most leagues this season. I'd rather take a chance on sleeper/breakout tight ends like Noah Fant, Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki, Herndon and Blake Jarwin, who are all being drafted after Hooper as of now.
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Which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Visit SportsLine now to get early rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
