When I break down players for my Fantasy lineups, I check out a number of factors: How they fared the week before, how they looked, and who they're playing. I've found that this combination helps me make an educated guess on who will do well and who won't in the upcoming matchup.
It's not foolproof, but it's better than breaking out the dart board.
I found five running backs with challenging situations this week and thought I'd share my analysis with you as we look toward a crucial Week 12 across every single Fantasy league.
The players are ranked in the order I'd start them in.
Aaron Jones, Vikings
LAST WEEK: Jones played enough to record 15 carries and a catch, but totaled 43 yards without a touchdown. Tennessee's massive D-line played a role. It was his fifth-straight game with at least 16 touches, but his fourth straight without a touchdown. And in the second half he was rotating series with Cam Akers and was getting out-snapped by Akers until he handled carries on the team's final three plays of the game. Also, both Jones and Akers lost a bevy of third-down snaps to fullback C.J. Ham.
FILM: There's no question that Jones is the most explosive running back on the Vikings roster. He continued to show off unreal quickness in his cuts as well as burst when he hit a seam. Any ill effects of his ribs injury didn't show up in how he moved, but it could have impacted his playing time. Also of note: Jones is not on the Vikings Week 12 injury report.
WEEK 12 MATCHUP: Chicago's run defense has allowed 5.0 yards per rush over its past four games (4.9 on the season) with a run of five-plus yards allowed on an egregious 37.7% of carries. If Jones is alright, he should stand to benefit from this showdown.
VERDICT: Jones' steady workload over the last month, his speedy style, his versatility in the pass game, and a favorable matchup put him in position for a reliable start, even if he'll share carries more than we'd like. Jones is a locked-in No. 2 Fantasy RB.
Javonte Williams, Broncos
LAST WEEK: Contributed to the Broncos' thumping of the Falcons with a 14-yard touchdown run, highlighting his 59 rush yards on nine carries with four grabs for 28 yards. Of note: Williams played 68% of the Broncos snaps until the game was 28-6, then he made way for Audric Estime to handle much of the work.
FILM: Williams wasn't perfect and there are still issues regarding his breakaway speed, but his physicality and finishing of runs combined with improved vision and decisiveness on his runs as the game went on solidified him as Denver's best running back. By comparison, Audric Estime looked tentative and seemingly took a step back after sort-of breaking out the week before. I'd be surprised if the Broncos went away from him again like they did in Week 10.
WEEK 12 MATCHUP: The Raiders aren't even close to the worst run defense by statistics alone, but the massive total of Fantasy points they've allowed would suggest otherwise. At least one running back has at least 13.3 PPR points against Las Vegas in every game this season.
VERDICT: If Williams doesn't score, he's going to disappoint. That's how it's been for much of his career. Fortunately, game script should be in his favor as long as the Broncos don't build too big of a lead. Williams should be viewed as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy RB.
JK Dobbins, Chargers
LAST WEEK: Dobbins needed a 29-yard touchdown scamper in the final minute to bolster his stat line -- before the play he had 27 yards on 10 carries against an improving Bengals run defense. He also had just 12 touches for the game, another in a long line of examples of the Chargers becoming much more of a pass-heavy offense. At least Dobbins had a goal-line TD and regained the upper hand on his playing time, logging a 73% snap share.
FILM: L.A.'s offensive line really didn't do Dobbins many favors, allowing penetration from Cincinnati's front seven on every carry including one where he broke free for 15 yards at the end of the third quarter. That explains the poor rushing average until the end of the game when he finally had a clean run. On the rare occasions he ran freely, he showed his typical good speed but not a lot of power and physicality on his runs.
WEEK 12 MATCHUP: Baltimore's run defense is nails -- toward the top of the league in yards per carry allowed to RBs at 3.3 and first in rush rate of 10-plus yards allowed at a staggering 3.9%. Both Steelers running backs each had over 10 PPR points against them last week, and Chase Brown went off for 22.4 PPR points the week before, so maybe they're starting to bust a little bit, but it's still considered a dominant defense and a bad matchup for anyone.
VERDICT: This is solely my thinking, but I wonder if the Chargers will use more of Gus Edwards because of his power and physicality against the Ravens. It wouldn't mean Dobbins would be left for dead, but it could mean fewer touches. And he might see fewer touches anyway because the way to attack the Ravens seems to be through the air. I'd nervously start Dobbins as a No. 2 Fantasy running back.
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
LAST GAME: Hubbard cruised against a hapless Giants defense in Germany, setting season-highs with 153 yards on 28 carries with a touchdown to boot. He added 16 yards on four grabs, too. Three carries went for 25 yards or more, and a total of nine were good for five-plus yards.
FILM: Hubbard ran with good speed and patience, often playing like Houdini and crossing up a slower Giants run defenders with cut-on-dime skills. It definitely didn't hurt that he enjoyed good blocking.
WEEK 12 MATCHUP: The Panthers come off the bye to take on a Chiefs defense that leads the NFL in yards per carry allowed to running backs at 3.1. Just 4.2% of the runs they've seen have gone for 10-plus yards, and they've allowed an impressive five rushing touchdowns to RBs in 10 games. Until James Cook scored twice in Week 11, no running back had more than 13 PPR points against the Chiefs this year.
VERDICT: I expect Hubbard to lead the Panthers RBs in playing time, carries, etc., but there's a high likelihood that rookie Jonathon Brooks will make his debut and potentially take Hubbard off the field. Could it be on third downs? Could it be randomly? It probably won't be at the goal line, but how likely is it that the Panthers will be at the goal line in this matchup anyway?! It's that painful matchup that weighs heavily here, more so than Brooks' debut. The five times this season Hubbard has totaled over 80 yards came in games when he had at least 17 touches. It's true that Hubbard has had at least 17 touches in 5 of 7 games the Panthers lost by at least 10 points, but the likelihood of him getting there with Brooks activated isn't as good as it was when Miles Sanders was taking work away from him. Adam Thielen's return might also cost both running backs some short-area targets. If he doesn't score, he's very likely to be in that 12-PPR-point range, which is palatable as a low-end No. 2 RB.
Tony Pollard, Titans
LAST WEEK: Pollard arguably had his worst outing of the season, collecting 1.7 yards per rush on nine carries against the Vikings with only two receptions for 14 yards. But the lack of work can't be pinned on a workload split -- Pollard played 63% of the snaps and teammate Tyjae Spears was ruled out with a concussion. And it can't be blamed on bad game script -- Tennessee was within one score well into the third quarter before failing to put up more than three points in the final quarter and a half.
FILM: For starters, his offensive line hasn't been very effective since losing center Lloyd Cushenberry, and they already had issues at right tackle before then. As for Pollard, every time he stopped his feet last week it took him a second to gather himself and get moving. He also did flash speed when accelerating, but it took him an extra few steps to actually accelerate -- and that's when there was actually room for him to run. Hopefully that's a thing of the past because Pollard isn't on the Titans Week 12 injury report.
WEEK 12 MATCHUP: The Texans are sixth-best in Fantasy points allowed to running backs on the season. Stunting everything Rico Dowdle did in Week 11 is one thing, but they held David Montgomery to 2.7 yards per rush and Jahmyr Gibbs to 3.7 yards per rush the week before. A key return was linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair; when he's played for the Texans, they've held running backs to a combined 3.8 yards per rush with a minimal 29.4% five-yard rush rate allowed.
VERDICT: When Pollard has played without Spears this season he's averaged 24.0 touches per game and has hit 14.7 PPR points in 2 of 3 games. That's not too shabby, but this matchup is among the toughest a running back can face. The Texans missing big D-lineman Denico Autry helps the cause, but EDGE Will Anderson could be back too. It's hard to have faith in Pollard, which is why he's not ranked as a top-24 rusher for me this week.
