Fantasy Football draft prep: What preseason film has taught us about rookies, breakouts, quarterback battles

Trevor Lawrence might have been the obvious choice for the Jaguars at No. 1 back in April's draft, but after one week of preseason ball, Justin Fields looked like the best of the bunch.

In his debut with Chicago, Fields threw a touchdown and ran for another while completing 14 of 20 throws for 142 yards. The numbers were nice, but it was his instant ability to manipulate Miami's defense with his legs that got some of his receivers open. One such play was when Fields left the pocket, a defender basically quit his coverage of receiver Rodney Adams to go after Fields, and the rookie simply threw it to Adams. 

The thought of this happening with Allen Robinson and especially Darnell Mooney should get Fantasy managers very excited.

He made a couple of gutsy throws, too. One was a tight-window miss that got tipped by a defender and nearly picked by another, but another was a ridiculous timing pattern with defenders in his face to Rodney Adams, who made a hell of a catch himself 25 yards downfield.

Fields is also fast as you remember from college, piling up 33 yards on just five carries, but he's got to hold on to the football after fumbling it away once.

I spent a lot of time this offseason talking about drafting Trey Lance as a stash-worthy Fantasy quarterback with massive upside, but if we see another week or two of this from Fields, he'll be ahead of Lance in terms of a late-rounder. Heck, if Fields does this again, the Bears may have no choice but to turn heel on Andy Dalton and start Fields in Week 1 at the Rams, and at that point, Fantasy managers would start clawing for him by Round 10 or 12. He's absolutely worth a late-round flier at this point. 

The rest of the rookies

Lawrence: He played 15 snaps and showed some excellent timing with Marvin Jones including a downfield masterpiece on a third-and-10 play. But he also held the ball too long a couple of times and took a couple of sacks for it. There's no doubt he'll be a good source of Fantasy points sooner than later, but his placement ahead of Lance and Fields in seasonal redraft rankings is starting to quiver.

Lance: The 80-yard bomb to Trent Sherfield was great not because of the arm strength, but because he was smart enough to bypass a wide open Brandon Aiyuk for a first down and throw to a spot where Sherfield could get it. Lance had a number of good reads and should eventually master his anticipatory throws, but he also made some bad reads and held on to the ball too long. He also didn't run at all, something that will most certainly change when the games count. His messy day included three drops from his receivers, but he was sacked four times and should have had two passes picked off. Without that play to Sherfield, Lance was 4 of 13 for 48 yards.

Mac Jones: His first several throws were accurate short-range tosses, the kind we've come to expect from him from his last year at Alabama. When he did throw downfield, it was either beautiful (a deep bomb to Kristian Wilkerson, who dropped it), or just off (a deep toss to Gunner Olszewski was a little too wide and long). At first glance, Jones has seemingly mastered his short timing routes, a step in the right direction for eventually replacing Cam Newton.

Zach Wilson: He played 21 snaps and seemed like a natural fit in the Mike LaFleur's West Coast system, but there were at least three throws he made where there was a better option was available. Once he cleans that up we'll see him make big plays on the regular. His best throw against the Giants was a tight-window job on a 3rd-and-9 dig route to Keelan Cole for a 16-yard gainer. He's only draftable in formats that start two quarterbacks for now. 

Checking on the breakout candidates

Tua Tagovailoa: He looked good early with a great touch throw to Mike Gesicki and another money throw on a third-down out-route to Mack Hollins, but a penalty brought it back. Tagovalioa was good avoiding pressure in the pocket and had a near-perfect day save for missing a wide-open Jaylen Waddle 13 yards downfield when he instead checked down to Malcolm Brown and ignoring an over-the-top safety after he saw Adam Shaheen race past a Bears linebacker toward the end zone (the safety made an interception). Tagovailoa won't get picked late in every league but should be on the radar just after the high-upside rookies.

Jalen Hurts: I loved his long throw to Dallas Goedert on an out route with a linebacker on his hip. That was perfect placement from Hurts, who was on the money with every throw on his first drive including one that Zach Ertz dropped. He was also smart enough to throw away a pass when the Steelers got some pressure on him on the second drive instead of forcing something downfield. He's still very much in the top-12 range among Fantasy passers and could see his stock rise if he continues to practice well and perform well in preseason games. I'm looking forward to seeing how DeVonta Smith helps him.

Quarterback competitions

If I had to make a call on who would win the following training camp battles based on one preseason game, it would be ...

Drew Lock over Teddy Bridgewater: Long's deep lob to KJ Hamler was obviously awesome, but he also displayed some good decision-making as well as some patience that helped him make some smooth throws. If he can rein in his bad decisions like he seemingly did against the Vikings, he'll be better for Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant.

Jameis Winston over Taysom Hill: Hill started his game against the Ravens very strong but was off-target on a dump screen, then got picked off, then should have been picked off again on a terrible throw, then got sacked when he had Ty Montgomery (yes he's still in the league) wide open. If the Saints are going to have an uneven quarterback, might as well be the one with more experience and a stronger arm in Winston. Marquez Callaway is becoming a big-time sleeper receiver either way.

Cam Newton over Mac Jones: Jones was good but not sensational. Newton gives the Panthers an interesting rushing dynamic they can win with. Until Newton falls apart as a passer, it makes sense for them to stick with him, limiting the upside for Damien Harris and Jakobi Meyers.

Tyrod Taylor over Davis Mills: This is just about going with experience over a rookie. Mills will eventually play, but it's not like there are many Fantasy starters on the Texans to begin with.

Jacob Eason over Sam Ehlinger: Eason made some wonderful throws, including a deep in-the-basket job to Parris Campbell. He should be serviceable for the Colts' pass-catchers to begin the year.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.