The best way to determine sleepers is using Average Draft Position data, and we're not going to get a true representation of that for redraft leagues until the end of August. But there are some early sources of ADP that give us an outline, and we can start there for Sleepers 3.0.
Using the FantasyPros ADP as of July 29, the sleepers listed here are being drafted after pick No. 100. We'll see if that changes over the next month through training camp and the preseason games, but right now these are guys you can select after Round 8 in a 12-team PPR league.
There are players in this range who are going to rise quickly, including breakout candidates like Trey Lance, Rhamondre Stevenson, Allen Lazard, Kadarius Toney and Treylon Burks, among others. But I'll focus on the players I expect to stay in this range, and many of these guys will be on my Fantasy rosters this year.
Quarterbacks
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The Bears didn't do Fields any favors this offseason with only a limited investment in their receiving corps. It's hard to expect guys like Byron Pringle, N'Keal Harry and Velus Jones Jr. to make Fields dramatically better as enhancements to Darnelly Mooney, Cole Kmet and David Montgomery. But Fields is the type of quarterback Fantasy managers should love, especially at his cost (FantasyPros ADP of 121 overall as QB17), because of his running potential. He averaged 56.3 rushing yards per game over his final six healthy outings, and that would put him on pace for 957.7 rushing yards for the season over 17 games. If he can pass for over 4,000 yards -- he averaged 221.2 passing yards per game in that same six-game sample size, a pace of 3,776.8 yards for 17 games -- then we have a potential superstar. I'm excited to see what Fields can do, and he's a No. 2 quarterback to target in all leagues.
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Unlike Fields, the Jaguars made sure to help Lawrence this offseason with new weapons in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Along with Travis Etienne (foot) back healthy -- and swapping out Urban Meyer for Doug Pederson -- there's a lot to like about Lawrence this year. He should start to look like the No. 1 overall pick from 2021, and Fantasy managers should benefit. Lawrence only had three games last year with at least 21 Fantasy points, but hopefully that becomes the norm with a fresh start. Lawrence isn't going to be a dynamic rushing quarterback, but he did have 73 attempts for 334 yards and two touchdowns last year. And at Clemson, he ran for 766 yards and 17 touchdowns over his final two seasons in 25 games. Like Fields, Lawrence is a good No. 2 quarterback to target at his price (FantasyPros ADP of 132 overall as QB18).
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Other sleeper quarterbacks to consider: Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones.
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Running Backs
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I'm hesitant to call Gainwell a breakout candidate because I want Miles Sanders to succeed, but if Sanders misses any time then Gainwell could be a lottery ticket. He's an easy target on Draft Day given his price in late July (FantasyPros ADP of 143 overall as RB51), and he should shatter that ADP, even if Sanders is healthy. The Eagles' offense should greatly improve with the addition of A.J. Brown, and I'm excited about Jalen Hurts and the passing game. I'm optimistic for Sanders also, but we know Sanders has struggled to stay healthy in his career, missing four games in each of the past two seasons. Gainwell is now No. 2 on the depth chart, and he should also have a role in tandem with Sanders, especially in the passing game. Last season, despite Sanders and Jordan Howard on the roster, Gainwell still had three games with at least 12 carries, and he scored at least 17 PPR points in two of them. He could be special if Sanders gets hurt again, and I plan to have a lot of exposure to Gainwell this season.
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The Texans depth chart at running back features Marlon Mack, Rex Burkhead and Pierce as the top three options, and Pierce clearly has the most upside. He could emerge as a weekly starter in all leagues, and his price is right as of now (FantasyPros ADP of 124 overall as RB44). Houston's offense should improve this season after a dismal year in 2021 as long as Davis Mills takes a step forward in his sophomore campaign, which is something I expect to happen. Pierce was never a full-time running back at Florida, but he did average more than 5.6 yards per carry in three of four seasons. He also had 19 catches for 216 yards and three touchdowns in a part-time role in 2021. The key for Pierce will be dominating the workload over Mack and Burkhead and getting a hefty amount of touches. You might have to be patient with Pierce, but he should reward you with solid production in his rookie campaign.
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Allgeier is in an interesting spot with the Falcons this season, especially if Cordarelle Patterson returns to more of a receiving role. But even in tandem with Patterson in the backfield, we could see Allgeier emerge as the best running back in Atlanta. At BYU, Allgeier averaged 6.4 yards per carry in his four-year career, and he had 276 carries for 1,601 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2021, as well as 28 catches for 199 yards. He was a physical presence in college and led all running backs in rushing yards after contact over the past two seasons (1,847), as well as finishing second in rushing touchdowns (36) over that span. Patterson was a standout running back for the Falcons and Fantasy managers last season, but he struggled down the stretch. Mike Davis failed to prove he was better than Patterson, but Allgeier might not have that same problem. I plan to draft Allgeier by Round 8 in all leagues, but he's going later than that as of now (FantasyPros ADP of 142 overall as RB50).
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Antonio Gibson (hamstring) was already hurt at the start of training camp, and Robinson was getting first-team reps in Gibson's place. Reports are that even when Gibson is healthy, Robinson will handle short-yardage work, which could lead to some easy production. Last year, Gibson had 12 carries inside the 5-yard line and scored five touchdowns. He also handled 25 carries inside the 10-yard line. Robinson, a third-round pick out of Alabama, was a beast last year with 271 carries for 1,343 yards and 14 touchdowns, and it might surprise you that he had 35 catches for 296 yards and touchdowns. He won't have a huge role in the passing game with Gibson and J.D. McKissic, but he could be a nice surprise if Gibson were to miss time due to injury, especially at his price (FantasyPros ADP of 206 overall as RB63). I plan to draft a lot of Robinson this season in all leagues.
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Other sleeper running backs of interest: Isaiah Spiller, Rachaad White, Khalil Herbert, Tyrion Davis-Price and Darrel Williams
Wide Receivers
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The path to playing time and targets is clear for Tolbert early in the season with Michael Gallup (knee) and James Washington (foot) likely limited due to injuries. Dallas already had to replace 165 vacated targets from Amari Cooper and Ced Wilson being gone, and Tolbert should now get the chance to be the third option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz. If Tolbert can prove himself early, he might stay ahead of Gallup and Washington all season. In his final year at South Alabama in 2021, Tolbert had 82 catches for 1,474 yards and eight touchdowns in 12 games, and he scored 22 touchdowns over his final three years. Dak Prescott should lean on Tolbert quite a bit, and hopefully he delivers plenty of production with this prime opportunity. He's also free on Draft Day now with his FantasyPros ADP in July at 196 overall as WR70. That will rise following Washington's injury, but I'm willing to draft Tolbert as early as Round 10 in all leagues.
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The Chiefs have a revamped receiving corps with Tyreek Hill (Dolphins), Byron Pringle (Bears) and Demarcus Robinson (Raiders) gone. That's 260 targets available from last season, and newcomers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Moore will compete with Mecole Hardman to help fill the void. I like Smith-Schuster the best of this group, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 5. And Valdes-Scantling and Hardman have late-round appeal, especially based on minicamp reports on Valdes-Scantling showing a strong rapport with Patrick Mahomes. But I'm hopeful Moore becomes a prominent weapon for Mahomes, and the second-round pick from Western Michigan should make plenty of plays with his 4.41 speed. He could emerge as the slot receiver for the Chiefs, and Moore had 95 catches for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns last season in only 12 games. It could take time for Moore to earn Mahomes' trust, so be patient with him early in the season. But the upside is obvious if he's a prime target for the Chiefs, and I plan to target Moore as early as Round 8 in all leagues. His current price tag is better than that if you're drafting any time soon (FantasyPros ADP of 131 overall as WR55).
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Palmer is going to be the No. 3 receiver for the Chargers behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and hopefully there's enough targets from Justin Herbert to support Palmer being Fantasy relevant in the majority of leagues, especially when you factor in Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett. We saw last year that Palmer stepped up when given an increased role, scoring at least 14 PPR points in three of his final five games. He had at least six targets in each of those outings, so when he was involved he produced, which was encouraging. He can hopefully build off that strong finish for a full year in his sophomore campaign, but he also has handcuff appeal should something happen to Allen or Williams. He's free on Draft Day right now (FantasyPros ADP of 214 overall as WR74), but I could see his ADP rise with a strong training camp and preseason since he's attached to an elite quarterback like Herbert.
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Osborn will be the No. 3 receiver for the Vikings behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but Osborn could still be productive in that role. And as we saw in 2021, when Thielen battled injuries, Osborn had huge upside. He had eight games last year with at least five targets, and he scored at least 14 PPR points in seven of them. I plan to have plenty of shares of Osborn this year, especially at his current price (FantasyPros ADP of 232 overall as WR82). His ADP will rise dramatically if he does anything in the preseason, and you want pieces of this Vikings offense with Kevin O'Connell as the new head coach. You know what Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Jefferson and Thielen are capable of, but Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith and Osborn are three of my favorite sleepers that I plan to draft this season.
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Other sleeper wide receivers to consider: Tyler Boyd, Rondale Moore, Jahan Dotson, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens
Tight Ends
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If you like drafting two tight ends on your Fantasy roster then make Everett someone to target with a late-round pick in all leagues, especially at his current price (FantasyPros ADP of 177 overall as TE20). Like Palmer, he might not get consistent targets behind Allen, Mike Williams and Ekeler, but there is still the chance for low-end No. 1 Fantasy tight end production in all formats. The Chargers tight ends (Jared Cook, Donald Parham, Stephen Anderson and Tre' McKitty) combined for 137 targets last season, with Cook leading the way with 83. He's gone now, and Everett should prove to be better than Cook at this stage of his career. In 2021 with Seattle, Everett set career highs in catches (48), yards (478), touchdowns (four) and targets (63), and he scored at least 10.0 PPR points in five of his final nine games. I doubt he can make the leap to a top-five Fantasy tight end this season with everyone healthy, but he could emerge as a top-10 option if he becomes a go-to target for Herbert this year.
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The Packers are trying to replace Davante Adams and Valdes-Scantling, and that leaves Green Bay with 224 vacated targets from 2021. Tonyan could help fill the void if healthy, and hopefully he's fine for Week 1 after suffering a torn ACL in Week 8 last year. Aaron Rodgers would love to have Tonyan back at 100 percent, especially the 2020 version when he caught 52 passes for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns on 59 targets. I'm not sure if he can be that efficient again or score that many touchdowns, but if you're willing to chase tight ends like Dawson Knox (49 catches for 587 yards and nine touchdowns on 71 targets) or Pat Freiermuth (60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns on 79 targets) based on their production from last year, Tonyan will be cheaper on Draft Day (FantasyPros ADP of 171 overall as TE17) and might have a similar ceiling. There could even be a spike in targets for Tonyan given the lack of star power in the receiving corps for Green Bay. He's one of my favorite late-round fliers to take at any position, especially if you're inclined to draft multiple tight ends this year.
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Other sleeper tight ends to consider: David Njoku, Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst
