Aaron Rodgers should be considered a low-end starting quarterback in Week 16 against the Rams. He's not a must-start quarterback in the Fantasy semifinals, but he should perform well enough that he doesn't hurt your Fantasy roster.
Rodgers was excellent in Week 15 at Jacksonville with 36.1 Fantasy points, and he scored at least 18 points in six of his past seven outings. I would expect him to be around 18 Fantasy points again in this matchup with the Rams.
In their past six games, the Rams have allowed just two quarterbacks to score more than 16.8 Fantasy points, which were Drake Maye in Week 11 (21.9 points) and Josh Allen in Week 14 (57.9 points). Otherwise, the Rams have shut down Tua Tagovailoa in Week 10 (10.2 points), Jalen Hurts in Week 12 (16.9 points), Derek Carr in Week 13 (16.6 points) and Brock Purdy in Week 15 (3.9 points).
Rodgers is averaging 20.1 Fantasy points per game in eight games since Davante Adams joined the Jets via trade from the Raiders, and it will be tough for the Rams to stop Adams and Garrett Wilson. Hopefully, Rodgers can throw multiple touchdowns for the fourth time in his past five games.
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Trusting Rodgers in the Fantasy semifinals is risky, especially against an improving Rams defense. But he's played well enough recently to have a safe floor, and hopefully he can get multiple touchdowns to be a solid No. 1 Fantasy quarterback for the second game in a row.
QBs to Start
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Mayfield has looked like an elite Fantasy quarterback again in the past two games against the Raiders and Chargers with at least 25 points in each outing, and he should stay hot in Week 16 at Dallas. Six of the past nine quarterbacks against the Cowboys have scored at least 23.8 Fantasy points, and Mayfield has finally found his second receiver in Jalen McMillan to help Mike Evans. Mayfield has top-five upside in Week 16.
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Murray is clearly tough to trust since he's scored 17.2 Fantasy points or less in three of his past four games. He also has just three touchdowns and five interceptions over that span, and he's rushed for more than 16 yards just once since Week 10. But I expect him to snap out of his slump in Week 16 against the Panthers, who are No. 4 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Three of the past four quarterbacks against Carolina have scored at least 25.1 Fantasy points, including Cooper Rush last week. And the Panthers have allowed three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks and four quarterbacks to rush for at least 30 yards in a game this season.
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Darnold only scored 13.2 Fantasy points in Week 15 against Chicago, but Justin Jefferson dropped an easy touchdown that would have boosted both their stats. Prior to Week 15, Darnold had scored at least 23.6 Fantasy points in four games in a row, and he should get back on track in Week 16 at Seattle. Five quarterbacks in the past seven games against the Seahawks have scored at least 20.4 Fantasy points, and Darnold remains a solid No. 1 quarterback in all leagues.
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Williams had a down game in Week 15 at Minnesota with 11.9 Fantasy points, which snapped a three-game streak where he scored at least 18.1 points. One of those games was in Week 13 at Detroit when he scored 32.1 Fantasy points, and I like Williams' chances to have another quality performance against the Lions in the rematch at home. Detroit is beat up defensively, including new injuries to defensive tackle Alim McNeill (knee) and cornerback Carlton Davis (jaw), and I like Williams as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in Week 16.
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Stafford struggled in Week 15 at San Francisco with just 8.2 Fantasy points, but he should rebound in Week 16 at the Jets. Four of the past five quarterbacks against the Jets have scored at least 22.7 Fantasy points, including Mac Jones last week. And Stafford had scored at least 19.6 Fantasy points in four games in a row prior to facing the 49ers. Stafford should be considered a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in Week 16.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Purdy has played five games this season coming off a game where lost. He didn't play in Week 12 at Green Bay following the Week 11 loss to Seattle, and he didn't lose the Packers game. In four of his five games after a loss, Purdy has scored at least 26.1 Fantasy points, and hopefully that happens again in Week 16 at Miami after the Rams beat the 49ers 12-6 in Week 15. Three of the past five quarterbacks against the Dolphins have scored at least 19.6 Fantasy points, and Purdy should bounce back in Week 16.
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Nix threw three interceptions in Week 15 against the Colts but still managed to score 19.5 Fantasy points. He rallied with three touchdown passes, and he also rushed for 23 yards, which was his most rushing yards since Week 9. Nix scored 24.7 Fantasy points against the Chargers in Week 6, and four quarterbacks in the past six games have scored at least 23.1 Fantasy points against the Chargers, including Baker Mayfield in Week 15. I like Nix as a low-end starting quarterback in all leagues.
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Richardson was a huge disappointment in Week 15 at Denver with 14.4 Fantasy points, especially after he scored a rushing touchdown on his opening drive. I expect him to rebound in Week 16 against the Titans, who have allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks with five. Five of the past six quarterbacks against Tennessee have also scored at least 19.7 Fantasy points, and I would stick with Richardson as a low-end starter in Week 16 given the matchup.
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QBs to Sit
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Stroud played well in Week 15 against Miami, but he only scored 15.6 Fantasy points. That's now eight games in a row with fewer than 20 Fantasy points, and it will be tough to trust him in one-quarterback leagues at Kansas City in Week 16. The Chiefs allow just 18.3 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks all season and have allowed one touchdown and three interceptions in the past two games against Justin Herbert and Jameis Winston.
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As of Wednesday, Mahomes is expected to play in Saturday's game against Houston despite hurting his ankle in Week 15 at Cleveland. I'm nervous to trust Mahomes playing at less than 100 percent against the Texans, who have held three of their past five opposing quarterbacks to 18.4 Fantasy points or less. Houston is also No. 2 in the NFL in sacks, and Mahomes has been held to 19.7 Fantasy points or less in three games in a row.
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Herbert heads into Thursday's game against Denver having scored 17.8 Fantasy points or less in four games in a row against Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. He's been dealing with an ankle injury, which could explain why he's only rushed for 13 yards in his past three games. Herbert was held to 15.7 Fantasy points in Week 6 at Denver, and the Broncos have only allowed two quarterbacks all season to score at least 20 Fantasy points (Lamar Jackson in Week 9 and Jameis Winston in Week 13). I would only start Herbert in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 16.
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It will help Wilson if George Pickens (hamstring) can play in Week 16 after missing the past two games, but I'd still be hesitant to trust Wilson in one-quarterback leagues at Baltimore. The Ravens have held four quarterbacks in a row to fewer than 20 Fantasy points, including Jalen Hurts in Week 13, Justin Herbert in Week 12 and Wilson in Week 11. He had 205 passing yards, no touchdowns and an interception against Baltimore, along with six carries for 18 yards. If Pickens plays then Wilson can be started in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues. But if Pickens is out then sit Wilson in all formats.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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Tagovailoa scored a season-low 5.8 Fantasy points in Week 15 at Houston, which included three interceptions. It was the first time he threw an interception since Week 10, and this performance snapped a four-game streak where he scored at least 27.5 Fantasy points. Hopefully he can bounce back against the 49ers, but this is a tough matchup. Only three quarterbacks all season have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against San Francisco, which includes Sam Darnold in Week 2, Kyler Murray in Week 5 and Josh Allen in Week 13. The Dolphins offensive line is a concern, and Jaylen Waddle (knee) could be out. I would only start Tagovailoa in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 16.
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