Win or go home. Survive and advance. Chips and a chair. No matter which metaphor you prefer, things are different this time of year. Every week could be our last game, and every win is a step closer to the ultimate goal. I'm assuming you're moving on to the semifinals of the Fantasy Football playoffs this week, and there is plenty of new information to get to.
Jerome Ford is an add and probably a start
Nick Chubb broke his foot in Week 15, and Ford paced the Browns with 104 yards from scrimmage and 19.4 PPR Fantasy points. He was the only running back to touch the football besides Nick Chubb, but we have a much larger sample size to base Ford's role on. Nick Chub missed the first six games of the season, and Ford was healthy for five of those games. In those five games, he handled a 43.2% of the team's rush attempts in that span and saw an 13.2% target share. He has a very good matchup against the Bengals in Week 16 and should project as a borderline No. 2 running back, and certainly a must-add whether you need him or not.
Kendre Miller is your number two waiver wire priority
We had Miller as one of our favorite stashes last week, and now you may unfortunately need him. Alvin Kamara left Week 15 with a groin injury, which could leave Miller in line to start at running back on Monday Night Football against the Packers. I would project Miller for a 60% rush share and a 10% target share without Kamara. You do have to be more cautious counting on Miller because Kamara hasn't been ruled out, and this is a Monday night game. Kamara's Saints don't have anything but pride to play for, but he is 50 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing season.
Carson Wentz may be starting for Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes left Week 15 with an ankle injury, and the Chiefs have a short week, with a Saturday game against Houston. That's followed by an even shorter week with a Christmas Day game at Pittsburgh. Not ideal. Wentz is a far cry from Mahomes, but he's also a well-above-average backup quarterback. I'll ding the pass-catcher's efficiency about five percent if Mahomes misses time. That will probably mean that you're sitting the Chiefs wide receivers but still starting Travis Kelce as a low-end TE1. We'll have more on this throughout the week as we know more, including our favorite QB streamers in the QB preview. Wentz should be added in all leagues where you can start more than one QB.
Javonte Williams may be back in the driver's seat
Jaleel McLaughlin left Week 15 with an injury, which could put Javonte Williams back in the lead role. Or it could be Audric Estime's turn. Who knows. The truth is that by now, you should know better than to trust a Broncos running back, no matter what happened the week before. But if McLaughlin misses time, I will project an even split in the running game between Williams and Estime, with Williams getting a large share of the running back targets. That will make Williams a high-end flex in the projections and rankings.
Amari Cooper disappeared
Cooper saw 14 targets in Wee 14 and zero in Week 15. Cooper ran a route on 40.5% of the Bills' drop backs, which was fourth amongst wide receivers behind Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, and Keon Coleman. I understand if you don't want to drop Cooper, but you cannot even consider starting him. Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid were the only players with a target share higher than 16%.
Jalen Hurts can still pass
Hurts threw the ball 32 times for 290 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers on Sunday. The combined target share for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith was 71.8%. It was a beautiful thing for all three, though not so much for Saquon Barkley. While I will boost the Eagles' pass rate a little on this explosion, it was mostly just a reminder that Hurts and Brown are must-start players, and Smith is pretty close too when Dallas Goedert is out. The Eagles are at Washington in Week 16 for what could be the game of the season.
A reckoning for DK Metcalf
The last few weeks, I have held out hope that we were going to see DK Metcalf look like DK Metcalf again this season. On Sunday night, I lost most of that hope. Metcalf was limited to just three catches for 28 yards. It was his fifth straight game with 70 or fewer yards and zero touchdowns. The big difference this week was that the targets disappeared as well. In Week 15, he faces a Vikings defense that has given up a ton of Fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but you can't view Metcalf as anything more than a boom/bust WR3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, on the other hand, is a must-start wide receiver. Yes, even if Sam Howell starts.
