Fantasy Football Week 1 Tight End Preview: Blake Jarwin and Noah Fant have immediate breakout potential

The narrative that tight end is deep in 2020 Fantasy Football could get a big boost in Week 1. While Chris Herndon and Mike Gesicki start off in terrible situations against the Bills and Patriots, respectively, Hayden Hurst, Blake Jarwin, and Noah Fant do not. In fact, they look like legitimate Week 1 breakout candidates. Hurst shouldn't be too surprising. In fact, we drafted him like he'd already broken out. But Jarwin and Fant could become full-time starters for Fantasy teams who weren't sure they had one. 

Jarwin walks into the Jason Witten role this season in Dallas and starts the season against the Los Angeles Rams. This game just happens to have the second-highest over-under of the weekend per William Hill Sportsbook and it wouldn't be surprising if Jarwin plays a bigger role early in the year while CeeDee Lamb acclimates to the NFL. 

And Fant may just be the No. 1 target in Week 1 for Drew Lock. Courtland Sutton injured his shoulder in Thursday's practice and Jerry Jeudy will be playing in his first NFL game. While the Titans have a very good defense, they weren't particularly stingy against tight ends last year. Only five teams surrendered more Fantasy points in 2019.

Week 1 TE Preview

The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:

Trey Burton TE IND Indianapolis • #80 Age: 33 • Experience: 8 yrs. Burton isn't Fantasy relevant, but his absence does highlight the opportunity for Jack Doyle. Burton was supposed to replace some of that Eric Ebron production, so Doyle should have plenty of targets against a bad Jacksonville defense.

• 7.3 .-- Not only are the Bills a great defense, but they were particularly great against tight ends last year, allowing them 7.3 .5 PPR points per game, the second lowest total in the league.
• 16.1 -- I don't want to spend too much time on defense vs. tight ends, but it's worth remembering that Arizona was the free space last year, giving up 30% more Fantasy points per game to tight ends than any other team.
• 55% -- Mark Andrews never played more than 55% of the snaps in a game last year and was below 40% four times. We're hopeful the trade of Hayden Hurst opens up even more opportunities for Andrews.
• 117 -- Darren Waller had the third most targets among tight ends last year. How much will Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards impact that?
• 120 -- Dirk Koetter's offense has dedicated 120 targets minimum to tight ends the past three seasons. That's a big reason why Hayden Hurst is our favorite breakout.
• 910 -- Mike Gesicki was fourth in air yards at tight end last year. Once his schedule turns he's a breakout candidate.
• 104.4 -- Tyler Higbee averaged 104 yards per game in the final five weeks. He had two games with more than 50 yards prior to that stretch.

Blake Jarwin TE DAL Dallas • #89 Age: 30 • Experience: 6 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ LAR DAL -3 O/U 51.5 OPP VS TE 16th PROJ PTS 7.7 TE RNK 9th

Tyler Higbee TE LAR L.A. Rams • #89 Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs DAL DAL -3 O/U 51.5 OPP VS TE 28th PROJ PTS 11.3 TE RNK 10th

Hayden Hurst TE LAC L.A. Chargers • #88 Age: 31 • Experience: 7 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs SEA SEA -1.5 O/U 49 OPP VS TE 32nd PROJ PTS 11 TE RNK 7th

Mike Gesicki TE CIN Cincinnati • #88 Age: 29 • Experience: 7 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ NE NE -6.5 O/U 43 OPP VS TE 7th PROJ PTS 7.4 TE RNK 24th

Chris Herndon TE NO New Orleans • #86 Age: 28 • Experience: 5 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ BUF BUF -6.5 O/U 39.5 OPP VS TE 4th PROJ PTS 7.4 TE RNK 19th

Week 1 Streamers

Blake Jarwin TE DAL Dallas • #89 Age: 30 • Experience: 6 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ LAR DAL -3 O/U 51.5 OPP VS TE 16th TE RNK 9th ROSTERED 61% To be clear, Jarwin isn't just a steamer. I had him close to my top 12 in preseason rankings. I'd expect five targets per game, which gives him an excellent chance to be a top 12 tight end on a per-game basis. Jason Witten finished top 12 last year, and that was with Jarwin seeing 41 targets. Jarwin isn't an elite athlete, but he's certainly more athletic than Witten.

Jack Doyle TE IND Indianapolis • #84 Age: 34 • Experience: 9 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ JAC IND -8 O/U 45 OPP VS TE 11th TE RNK 14th OWNED 59% Doyle should be second or third in line for targets in Week 1 against a very bad Jacksonville defense. That gives him decent touchdown upside and a solid PPR floor.

Eric Ebron TE PIT Pittsburgh • #85 Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ NYG PIT -5.5 O/U 47.5 OPP VS TE 18th TE RNK 16th OWNED 41% They have really been talking up Ebron's role in Pittsburgh, and like Doyle, he faces a very bad defense. There may be too many mouths to feed in Pittsburgh if the pass volume goes down, but his touchdown odds make him worth the Week 1 risk.

Top Play

Projections powered by Sportsline

Hayden Hurst TE LAC L.A. Chargers • #88 Age: 31 • Experience: 7 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs SEA SEA -1.5 O/U 49 OPP VS TE 32nd PROJ PTS 11 TE RNK 8th FANDUEL $5,200 DRAFTKINGS $4,300 I wouldn't blame anyone for playing George Kittle, especially in cash games. But Hurst is by far my favorite tight end play at a bargain price in a shootout against a Seahawks team that gave up the second-most Fantasy points to tight ends in 2019.

Contrarian Play

Projections powered by Sportsline

O.J. Howard TE LV Las Vegas • #88 Age: 30 • Experience: 7 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ NO NO -3.5 O/U 49.5 OPP VS TE 12th PROJ PTS 6.4 TE RNK 17th FANDUEL $4,700 DRAFTKINGS $3,700 If you're looking for a tournament-only punt play, I'd suggest Howard. He's made a connection with Brady in camp, and they're talking about Rob Gronkowski as a part-time player. Howard doesn't need much more than a touchdown at this price to pay off.

Who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 1 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.